[Asterisk]

Hi all,

I'm posting because I'm a little creeped out and I wanted to get your thoughts...

Last year my Mahagony tree sprouted it's first buds on April 14 and this year the first day of growth was MARCH 19!! I know because I documented both with my camera and emailed pictures to myself so that I wouldn't forget the date. Now granted, I have been watering and fertilizing this year much more than I did last year, but still....is it normal for a tree to bloom almost an entire MONTH early??

[vox_mundi]

Unless your posting from the Amazon, i'm thinking you mean Magnolia.

Magnolia stellata (star magnolia) will bloom with 1-49 degree days. If your posting from anywhere except New England, you've probably accumulated enough.
Link

See also Phenology and Growing Degree Days

https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring


Spring 2014

[Asterisk]

I'm in South Florida and I'm talking about the Mahogany:

http://www.south-florida-plant-guide.co ... -tree.html

[dohboi]

Phenology doesn't lie.

[Ibon]

Hi all,

I'm posting because I'm a little creeped out and I wanted to get your thoughts...

Last year my Mahagony tree sprouted it's first buds on April 14 and this year the first day of growth was MARCH 19!! I know because I documented both with my camera and emailed pictures to myself so that I wouldn't forget the date. Now granted, I have been watering and fertilizing this year much more than I did last year, but still....is it normal for a tree to bloom almost an entire MONTH early??

One tree. Two Years. Don't freak out. That is called insufficient data. If you plan on being in South Florida a long time you could keep a record of easily recognizable native tree species like live oak, Sea grape, Gumbo Limbo, even mangoes, and record their variation from year to year. Regarding leaf and flower emergence there tends to be higher variation in the tropics than temperate areas where cold winters and more seasonal day length periods dictate more the emergence of leaves and flowers in the spring.

I lived 10 years in South Florida. It is a wonderful place for those botanically inclined

[GHung]

Plenty of signs here, about 700 miles north of Miami and about 2500 feet higher in elevation. We've seen subtle indications that species have been shifting north for a couple of decades, some arriving earlier in spring (late winter) and some have become permanent residents. Our pastures have begun greening out two to four weeks earlier than 20-30 years ago (ask any farmer with grazing animals), the invasive multi-flora rose began budding out about 3 weeks early the last few years (we spray it when it's in full bud - leafing out).

My sister is an avid bird watcher and has kept a journal noting first arrival dates for migrating bird species, and many have begun arriving earlier: Humming birds about 3 weeks earlier than 20 years ago. The Yellow-breasted Chats, always the sign of Spring these days, have arrived early the last few years. The 'Chat' is like a Mockingbird on steroids and winters over in tropical climates; brings back many tropical bird calls which it sings 24/7 throughout the Spring/early Summer; hard to ignore, especially at night. Note that Chats were very rare to non-existant here 20-30 years ago; stayed at lower elevations or farther south. Other migrating birds are being seen earlier. Rufus Hummingbirds, rare here in the past, have wintered over at my sisters house (she leaves feeders up for them); so unusual that researchers came and took pictures. I saw a Ruby-throated hummer last week. We used to begin looking for them about Easter or shortly after.

Last winter, groundhogs never really hibernated; saw them off and on throughout the winter. They go underground during cold spells but re-emerge when things warm back up. I've also seen them dead on the sides of roads in winter months. Don't remember that in the past.

Plenty of signs something is up. The USDA has moved our local hardiness (growing) zone from zone 6a to zone 7b indicating a 5-10 degree higher average temperature from the past (earlier last frost; later first frost), and (purely my observation) our growing season is longer than back in the '70s-'90s, perhaps 3-4 weeks.

Posted at 03:54 PM ET, 01/27/2012
New USDA plant zones clearly show climate change

Planting zones are retreating north all over the country, but the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) won’t state the obvious: the shift is a rock solid indicator of climate change.

On Wednesday, the USDA released a new plant hardiness zone map, which contours the nation according to average annual lowest winter temperatures. The new zones analyze these temperatures for the period 1976-2005, updating a 1990 version of the map, which covered 1974-1986.

Although these zones, which serve as a guide to the kinds of plants that can grow, have shifted north in most areas, USDA shied away from making a climate change connection.

“The map is not a good instrument for determining climate change,” said Kim Kaplan, a spokeswoman for the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service. “It’s not that there hasn’t been global climate change it’s that the map isn’t a good (vehicle) for demonstrating it.”

USDA’s line of reasoning in perplexing. Climate data are used in USDA’s analysis and the northward jog in planting zones is fully consistent with other data and indicators that establish warming of the coldest temperatures in the U.S. (and most locations globally).


Percent of U.S. affected by extremely warm and cold minimum temperatures from 1910 to present. (NOAA)

For example, consider NOAA’s Climate Extremes Index which tracks the occurrence of extreme temperatures over time among other weather metrics. In the last several decades, the prevalence of extremely warm low temperatures has overwhelmed extremely cold low temperatures. In 2011, 26.1% of the country experienced extremely warm low temperatures. The amount of country that experienced extremely cold low temperatures? Just 2.6%.

Reporting for the Associated Press, Seth Borenstein spoke with David Wolfe, a professor of plant and soil ecology at Cornell, who agreed USDA is being “too cautious” in laying off the climate change connection.

“At a time when the ‘normal’ climate has become a moving target, this revision of the hardiness zone map gives us a clear picture of the ‘new normal,’” Wolfe said.

I’m not arguing USDA should use the hardiness zones to quantify the degree of climate change, or draw conclusions about its causes. But it’s truly bizarre that it would stop short of making a simple connection between what’s happening to planting zones and the climate when it is so apparent and so societally relevant.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html

[Paulo1]

We are three weeks ahead on the west coast of Canada. It is very freaky and I am worried about the lack of snowpack for fall salmon returns. There will be thousands of salmon holding below my house this year unless fall rains come early. If the water is warm, the early runs have huge die-offs. It gets pretty smelly sometimes. Lots of bears!!

[Ibon]

I have only 6 year of references here at Mount Totumas. I noticed the elevation ranges for mammal and birds in the available field guides are way off as we have species present here whose range limits are 1000-1400m and we are at 1900m. Maybe some of this is accountable because of incomplete field data. On the other hand in the time I have been here I have seen the arrivals of lowland bird species up here that were not here the first couple of years.

I am maintaining a site collection of Lepidoptera here for a long term biodiversity study on climate change which will serve as a reference and documentation of changes.

You do not need to be a trained ecologist to make very valuable contributions to field data. Amateur bird watchers contribute vital sources of data that is used by researchers for example. Like the ones Ghung mentioned above.

We don't really need any more science though since skeptics don't care about science

But for each of us playing close attention there is nothing like first hand experience to give you a deep sense of change happening in our biosphere.

I spent time in cloud forest habitat in Southern Mexico when I was in my early 20's, a pristine area of old growth forest that today is all cow pastures and has essentially be wiped off the planet. If you witness personally these kind of events in your life time they change you in a deep way that is different than the way you process this information when you read about it.

We greatly underestimate the importance of personal observations and the organic relationship that you develop with the land when you are personally inter acting. That is why I think the internet and digital media in general is a bunch of cerebral bullshit.

I am a luddite in this way. I know..... but so be it.

[Newfie]

Temp rise is greater at higher latitudes.

You should not see much, if you do it ain't good.

[Asterisk]

We are three weeks ahead on the west coast of Canada. It is very freaky and I am worried about the lack of snowpack for fall salmon returns. There will be thousands of salmon holding below my house this year unless fall rains come early. If the water is warm, the early runs have huge die-offs. It gets pretty smelly sometimes. Lots of bears!!

Thanks for the responses guys! Paulo, when you say "We are three weeks ahead," what specifically are you referring to?

[careinke]

Based on plant blooms, we are about 60 days ahead of normal in the lower Puget Sound. I've already harvested some wild asparagus off our sand spit. Normally, we don't see them until May.


The upper Puget Sound is around 30 days ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, the Skagit Valley Tulip Festival is scheduled in two weeks, hopefully, there will still be blooms left.

[Hawkcreek]

We greatly underestimate the importance of personal observations and the organic relationship that you develop with the land when you are personally inter acting. That is why I think the internet and digital media in general is a bunch of cerebral bullshit.
I am a luddite in this way. I know..... but so be it.

I agree. I see many people saying that anecdotal evidence doesn't count, but sometimes it seems to me that many different pieces of anecdotal evidence leaning the same way, should almost be considered statistical.

[yellowcanoe]

Still no sign of the end of winter in our neck of the woods. -12 C at noon today. This would be a below normal temperature in January -- to be getting such cold weather towards the end of March is pretty goofy!

[Asterisk]

Based on plant blooms, we are about 60 days ahead of normal in the lower Puget Sound. I've already harvested some wild asparagus off our sand spit. Normally, we don't see them until May.


The upper Puget Sound is around 30 days ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, the Skagit Valley Tulip Festival is scheduled in two weeks, hopefully, there will still be blooms left.

Seriously, that is not a good sign....