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U.S. oil bankruptcies spike 379%

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U.S. oil bankruptcies spike 379%

Unread postby GHung » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 13:01:19

Bankruptcy filings are flying in the American oil patch.

At least 67 U.S. oil and natural gas companies filed for bankruptcy in 2015, according to consulting firm Gavin/Solmonese.

That represents a 379% spike from the previous year when oil prices were substantially higher.

With oil prices crashing further in recent weeks, five more energy gas producers succumbed to bankruptcy in the first five weeks of this year, according to Houston law firm Haynes and Boone.

"It looks pretty bad. We fully anticipate it's only going to get worse," said Buddy Clark, a partner at Haynes and Boone and 33-year veteran in the energy finance space.

This bleak outlook highlights one of the flip sides to cheap energy prices.

Sure, it's great for drivers filling their tanks with cheap gas. But it's also fueling the demise of dozens of drilling and servicing companies -- and killing thousands of jobs in the process.

Even Chesapeake Energy (CHK), one of the better known winners from the shale boom, was forced to deny bankruptcy rumors earlier this week as its stock tanked.

Image

Oil companies are drowning -- in tons of debt

The dramatic increase in bankruptcy filings corresponds with the plunge in oil prices from over $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to below $27 today. It also reflects the drop in natural gas prices, which are near 14-year lows.

When oil prices were comfortably in the $90-$100 range and the shale oil boom took off, companies took on tons of debt to fund expensive drilling. But the ensuing surge in U.S. oil production created an epic supply glut that caused crude to crash.

Revenues have dropped, choking off cash flows and making it challenging for companies to pay off all that debt. Companies have responded by cutting jobs and slashing spending. But some of the more leveraged ones have been forced to resort to bankruptcy.

Energy bankruptcies can be very messy

For instance, last March Fort Worth-based Quicksilver Resources collapsed under the weight of more than $2 billion in debt taken on to finance its drilling in the Barnett Shale in Texas.

Quicksilver's assets were put up for sale.

However, in a sign of how messy these restructurings can be, it took 10 months for Quicksilver's oil and natural gas acreage to be auctioned off. Quicksilver's assets fetched just $245 million, or one-fifth of the company's estimate of its assets at the time of the filing.

Clark said bankruptcies and auctions get slowed by complex capital structures that pit investors with competing interests against one another.

"To get all those constituencies aligned is like herding cats -- cats who don't like each other," he said.

Get ready for many more bankruptcies

Besides Quicksilver, a number of other oil and natural gas companies with at least $1 billion in debt have filed for bankruptcy, including Sabine Oil & Gas, Milagro Oil & Gas, Samson Resources and Swift Energy.

Just in the past week, at least three smaller oil and natural gas companies filed for bankruptcy in Texas and Oklahoma, according to Haynes and Boone.

It's very likely a lot more energy companies will succumb to the commodities crash, especially oil services firms. These companies have less bargaining power with banks because they don't actually own the oil in the ground, they just help extract it.

Clark said he knows of at least another half-dozen bankruptcy filings being prepared for the next few weeks alone -- including some larger and publicly-traded oil and natural gas companies.

"We saw the low hanging fruit already happen. Now the ones that were able to survive this long are going to start teetering," said Ted Gavin, founding partner of Gavin/Solmonese, which did the bankruptcy analysis from data compiled by The Deal.

Even the oil drillers that survive face an uncertain future.

"The companies that are just making it today may not have the cash to invest in their future. That's a recipe for disaster three or four years from now," said Gavin.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/investi ... -stack-dom
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: U.S. oil bankruptcies spike 379%

Unread postby rdberg1957 » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 03:19:45

I think we're staring peak oil in the face. It doesn't look like what anyone predicted (continually rising prices) that I can recall. Some predicted an undulating plateau. Boom and bust has long been a part of the oil business. What's different about what's happening now? If unprecedented numbers of companies go bankrupt, who will buy the equipment up for auction? Who will be left to start oil companies when prices rise? If the only players who can continue to produce are middle eastern countries, when does production drop like a rock?
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Re: U.S. oil bankruptcies spike 379%

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 09:08:24

rd - "Unprecedented"? I'm not sure. Perhaps you're too young to remember about 35 years ago we had over 4,500 rigs drilling compared to the 2,000 or so this last boom. I don't have the number but we might have seen more companies disappear in the early 80's then the total number of all the companies in business during this last boom. And not just small companies: have you heard of Gulf Oil, Mobil Oil, Getty Oil, etc.? And the list of small companies the names of which you've never heard number into the many hundreds.

But even the early 80's wasn't the first bloodletting in the oil patch: same thing happened in the early 60's. When I began my undergrad degree in geology in 1970 there were almost no geologist being hired by energy companies. When I got out of grad school in 1975 companies were flying me and thousands of other new geologists all around the country for interviews and offering us big salaries as soon as we got to their offices.

BTW filing bankruptcy doesn’t necessarily mean they disappear…it might just mean reorganizing their debt. And most big pubcos doesn’t disappear: they are typically taken over by the healthier pubcos.
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Re: U.S. oil bankruptcies spike 379%

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 11:24:28

It doesn't look like what anyone predicted (continually rising prices) that I can recall.

Well, actually we projected the decline in price almost six months before it began, and put up this page in September '14:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

This was at a time that the Majors were announcing plans for projects with breakeven prices of over $200 per barrel. Of course, we didn't get a very good reception? The majority of the pundits in the industry were relying on projections from the EIA, and IEA. The EIA makes future oil price predictions based on the Black-Scholes Model, which is an equation that is used to price deriviatives. It is a means of predicting futures prices based on the future's market itself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2% ... oles_model

The Black-Scholes Model although, reliant on a number of assumptions that are iffy at best, is considered the Holy Grail of derivatives trading. With petroleum in 2014, like the MBS market in 2008, it failed. It is based on a continuous CDF (cumulative probability function) and that function broke down in 2012.

Our projections were based on the Etp Model; which is an energy model for petroleum production. It is an application of the the Second Law Statement, the "Entropy rate balance equation for control volumes". The Etp Model indicated that the CDF of petroleum production would hit a "discontinuity" in that function in 2012, and it did. The Black-Scholes model failed, and prices collapsed.

Even though it failed miserably the EIA is back to using the Black-Scholes Model to predict prices. We are not very optimistic about their future predictions. The distribution now has a downward bias that is not included in their model. Like all economic models the Black-Scholes lacks boundary conditions. In essences, they work until they don"t. This could result in an outcome that would be much worse than is necessary.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: U.S. oil bankruptcies spike 379%

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 14:54:40

Thanks pstarr for putting up that graph.

There are two point that I would like to make here:

1) If you notice the Maximum Consumer Price curve does not terminate at the X axis. The reason is very simple; we don't actually know where the bottom of that curve is going to be. We suspect that it will be at the point where the producers reach their average lifting cost, or where their cash flow goes negative if the price continues to decline. The point shown on the graph is a best guess.

2) The line on the graph is not a straight line. It is the tail end of a skewed logistic curve. Some place, before it hits the X axis, it will turn sharply to the right. That is not shown because, again, we don't know where that will be.

Overall, the continuation of the industry will depend on the integrity of the monetary financial system, and the the political will of society to subsidize a now losing industry. Since much of that industry crosses national borders, it is likely to become a hotly disputed international issue. The present animosity that exists between the world's producers, their general belligerent attitudes toward each other are not likely to facilitate the compromises that will be needed in the near future.
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