onlooker wrote:Yes it is fair to say that the more extreme effects of Peak Oil are just around the corner.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
onlooker wrote:Very good points T, as Monte and others like to point out Peak will manifest itself in economic troubles. I think this combination of a turn to LTO-Unconventional Oil along with a definite slowdown in demand, I believe signals a step change along the downward slope. Of course other things factor into the health of the economy. One must also acknowledge that all this new debt to prop up Tar and Shale will be an extra drag on the economy going forward. So in my estimation signs exist of peak oil economic perturbations. Right now we seem to be on stuck in a hybrid of your B and C options. The world seems to be flat out pumping trying to lower price to boost demand which seems to have frozen after the shocks of 2008. This condition can be the precursor of a spike in prices as demand picks up while supply lags.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Paulo1 wrote:Totally agree with Tanada on this. I too am simply waiting to see what unfolds. I believe it will be soon, but do not accept it will be cataclysmic at first. I think there will be some head scratching and attempts to explain it all away for a good while, and that a Greer decline is more likely. Each day that seems relatively normal is a day to make something better for you and your family to rely upon. Plus, despite the economic ups and downs we live in a remarkable time. We should enjoy it while we can, and I don't mean some hedonistic consumption campaign, but just enjoy the relative peace, calm, and plenty.
onlooker wrote:Tanada this is a quote from Monte "In the EIA’s 2000 Energy Outlook, based upon historical trends, they projected oil demand in 2010 would be 96 mbpd and 115 mbpd in 2020. We are only consuming 94 mbpd in 2016. Had not the 2008 financial collapse occurred, would we be producing enough oil to meet demand? Even with the fracking boom and OPEC pumping flat out, we are only producing 96.5 mbpd, barely enough to have met projected demand in 2010, sixteen years ago." So, while overall demand has increased it has NOT increased as would be expected from historical trends. So that is in essence demand destruction.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:MQ and I have disagreed about many things for many years now. Conflating a slower than projected rate of growth with no growth at all is typical of the sorts of things we disagree upon
Tanada wrote:If we go into a 'greatest depression' that will suppress consumption for economic instead of geological reasons so to call peak you have to watch a whole slew of different factors all at the same time and make judgment calls on how much each factor is influencing things.
noobtube wrote:The collapse is happening now.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:noobtube wrote:The collapse is happening now.
Of course, the hard core short term doomers have been stating this pretty much EVERY month for quite a long time now. Certainly throughout the past decade.
The specific litany of economic reasons given varies, of course, but the mantra is quite constant.
Meanwhile in the real world:
a). The hard core doomer crowd is continuously wrong. It looked like they might be right in 2008-2009, but that turned out to be an episode of stupidity about real estate -- according to any reasonably objective and credible economic source.
b). If people can't afford oil based products with oil at $30, why did humanity afford them well enough at three times the price in the 2010-2014 period, while the global economy continued to grow?
c). If this is collapse instead of an adjustment to much larger oil supplies (which may or may not be a long term phenomenon), then why does economic growth continue? Why are real estate prices generally booming in the US if US citizens can't afford $1.59 gasoline?
Shouting about a growth slow down in China as "doom", when that slow down is consistent with long term projections by real economists, even while ignoring the mirror image growth acceleration in India (also predicted by real economists) might be fun for hard crash doomers, but it doesn't help their credibility outside the echo-chamber.
If the new reality is that the fracking revolution which brought us abundant natural gas, then abundant NGL's, will now bring us abundant oil on a global scale -- then the global economy will actually have a very EASY time affording oil products (even as it continues to destroy the biosphere by burning those products at an accelerated rate).
The jury is still out, but books like "The Domino Effect" make a far better case for oil being (comparably) very affordable than hard crash doomers make for the global economy collapsing because people can't afford oil products.
ROCKMAN wrote:tube - "If the American economy needs $10/bbl oil to continue, and it sells for $15/bbl, watch the American way of life disappear before your eyes." Sorry but you lost me there. If the US economy needed $10/bbl oil back when it was selling for $90+/bbl and our "way of life" didn't disappear then why might it disappear at $30/bbl?
noobtube wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:noobtube wrote:The collapse is happening now.
Of course, the hard core short term doomers have been stating this pretty much EVERY month for quite a long time now. Certainly throughout the past decade.
The specific litany of economic reasons given varies, of course, but the mantra is quite constant.
Meanwhile in the real world:
a). The hard core doomer crowd is continuously wrong. It looked like they might be right in 2008-2009, but that turned out to be an episode of stupidity about real estate -- according to any reasonably objective and credible economic source.
Take a look at the Baltic Dry Index.
It does not matter what the price of oil is, if no one can afford it to run BAU.
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