[Graeme]

Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'

A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

At a lecture on 'Geohazards' earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.

Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves." Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year:

theguardian

[M_B_S]

Mary Christmas ?!

We Peak Oiler allways knew the truth.

Germanys new government stops the way to 100% renewable energy so Germany as the whole world is doomed.

Also Germanys Leadership has failed, so a dark, hot hungry and brutal future is all upon us.

All you and your family can do is prepare for the worst.

Not the gates of haven will open but the gates to hell.

An advice from an old man PEAK OILER

I lost my hope!

M_B_S

OIL GAS URANIUM and COAL are the Problems not the solutions!

Endless growth on earth is not possible.


Ford Motor Boss:

There will be 2 BILLION cars 2030 on the roads!

[Pops]

A really great article Graeme.

"Greater reliance upon tight oil resources produced using hydraulic fracturing will exacerbate any rising trend in global average decline rates, since these wells have no plateau and decline extremely fast - for example, by 90% or more in the first 5 years."

After a few clicks I found the original journal.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 2/2006.toc

[Timo]

Maybe the LENR will save us.

On a more serious note, it's probably just wishful thinking, but the global climate negotiations going on might be better served in focusing on new methods of energy production, rather than the existing effects of energy generation. How do we, as a planet, survive economically on reduced ffs that our economies depend on? If the writing is on the wall, then a transition is inevitable. Instead of negotiating reduction in CO2, start negotiating investments in the next technology in energy production. The same results will be achieved with a more promising future. New energy sources will be produced to fuel our economies, and they'll be less greenhouse intensive, to boot. Time on both fronts is running out.

[John_A]

Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'

A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

Nice to see he got this part right. You would think 40 years after it happened more would notice...Rockman certainly knew it and has already told us all this from the POD concept.

And while "increased risk" is nice, it is basically a waffle, we've had more expensive oil for 40 years, and sure, we've had conflict and hunger too. And had so much food around we've increased the planets population by BILLIONS during this time as well and haven't seen continuous recession since cheap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

[Lore]

That's because the cost of energy has remained relatively cheap in relation to income, but that is rapidly changing.

Households spending bigger share of income on fuel and other essentials
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ons-energy

U.S. household expenditures for gasoline account for nearly 4% of pretax income
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831#

[Pops]

cheap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

Actually no it didn't, good smoke tho.

OPEC's cartel caused lots more cheap oil to come on the market, ref: the '80s and 90's.

Not so the oughties.

http://i.bnet.com/blogs/cost-per-well-1960-2008-eia.jpg
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-ene ... il-supply/

[John_A]

That's because the cost of energy has remained relatively cheap in relation to income, but that is rapidly changing.

So are the economic solutions for folks who just get tired of shipping their hard earned dollars off to everyone from foreign jihadists, job stealing Mexicans or Canada.

Households spending bigger share of income on fuel and other essentials
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ons-energy

U.S. household expenditures for gasoline account for nearly 4% of pretax income
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831#

If people choose to spend 4% of their household expenditures on gasoline for their monster truck, they deserve what they have coming.

Even Monte reacted appropriately when faced with higher prices. He bought a scooter! Economic stimuli gets to most of us, sooner or later.

post833047.html?hilit=scooter#p833047

[John_A]

cheap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

Actually no it didn't, good smoke tho.

OPEC's cartel caused lots more cheap oil to come on the market, ref: the '80s and 90's.

Not so the oughties.

http://i.bnet.com/blogs/cost-per-well-1960-2008-eia.jpg
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-ene ... il-supply/

Of course cheap oil disappeared way back when. Temporary dips during 1986 or the late 90's are no more relevant to the trend than the fall of 2008. When the US stopped being swing producer, things, they changed.

Bye bye cheap oil!! Seemed to coincide with fins on cars, and the onslaught of Japanese manufacturing in autos as well. Those were the days....$0.25/gal.....1986 and the late 90's couldn't touch it...neither could the fall of 2008.

[dolanbaker]

cheap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

Actually no it didn't, good smoke tho.

OPEC's cartel caused lots more cheap oil to come on the market, ref: the '80s and 90's.

Not so the oughties.

http://i.bnet.com/blogs/cost-per-well-1960-2008-eia.jpg
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-ene ... il-supply/

Of course cheap oil disappeared way back when. Temporary dips during 1986 or the late 90's are no more relevant to the trend than the fall of 2008. When the US stopped being swing producer, things, they changed.

Bye bye cheap oil!! Seemed to coincide with fins on cars, and the onslaught of Japanese manufacturing in autos as well. Those were the days....$0.25/gal.....1986 and the late 90's couldn't touch it...neither could the fall of 2008.

What that chart doesn't show is the dependency that many have in oil which increased rapidly until the 1970s shock, and again in the late 1980s through to about 2005. During the periods of sustained high prices as in the mid 70s and the past few years, people have reduced using oil by various means, either by enforced (price)rationing, substituting another less desirable but cheaper fuel and of course upgrading machinery that does the same work using less fuel.

Prices before the 1920s don't really count as oil was just a small part of the energy cake then.

Where savings in fuel consumption can't be made, less money is available for other "stuff" and this is where the economy gets stuffed. Price rationing will slowly reduce the number of consumers who rely on oil as they are forced to make an either/or choice rather than a which ones choice.

[Quinny]

Some quotes IMHO just simply need highlighting!

“We’re like a cage of lab rats that have eaten all the cornflakes and discovered that you can eat the cardboard packets too. Yes, we can, but… Tight oil may reach 5 or even 6 million b/d in the US, which will hugely help the US economy, along with shale gas. Shale resources, though, are inappropriate for more densely populated countries like the UK, because the industrialisation of the countryside affects far more people (with far less access to alternative natural space), and the economic benefits are spread more thinly across more people. Tight oil production in the US is likely to peak before 2020. There absolutely will not be enough tight oil production to replace the US’ current 9 million b/d of imports.”

[Lore]

That's because the cost of energy has remained relatively cheap in relation to income, but that is rapidly changing.

So are the economic solutions for folks who just get tired of shipping their hard earned dollars off to everyone from foreign jihadists, job stealing Mexicans or Canada.

Households spending bigger share of income on fuel and other essentials
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ons-energy

U.S. household expenditures for gasoline account for nearly 4% of pretax income
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831#

If people choose to spend 4% of their household expenditures on gasoline for their monster truck, they deserve what they have coming.

Even Monte reacted appropriately when faced with higher prices. He bought a scooter! Economic stimuli gets to most of us, sooner or later.

post833047.html?hilit=scooter#p833047

Everybody get a scooter is your solution?

[Graeme]

Pops, Thanks for the link to the journal. My thoughts on the paper are about the timing of peak oil and the time for decline in production. To those in the industry, a plateau is old hat.

Production profiles of individual fields tend to be similar, with larger fields having longer plateaus achieved in part by drilling new wells.

Post-plateau, the production from individual wells and fields typically declines at a constant rate (exponential decline) or at a falling rate (hyperbolic decline)

We know from other references discussed in numerous threads that global peak oil occurred in 2005 and we've been on a global plateau ever since. This is mentioned in their report (page 6).

Crude oil production grew at approximately 1.5% per year
between 1995 and 2005, but then plateaued with more recent increases in liquids supply largely deriving from NGLs, oil sands and tight oil.

The timing of decline in global production is also mentioned (page 17).

Following an earlier literature review, we concluded that a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020 [11,62].

The timing of decline after the plateau is harder to pin-point but it appears that this is very near and likely during the next decade. Anyone willing to guess the year, and whether decline will be hyperbolic or exponential?

[AirlinePilot]

While decline and understanding it is important, I believe the real story is in the Global Net Export numbers. It does appear that something has changed with regard to the "paradigm". West Texas has a good handle on this and personally I believe this is one of the main contributors to why oil remains at its current price level. As others have noted fracking is making things look ok right now and will soften the blow of decline, but GNE is where you will SEE IT FIRST.

I think it will be difficult to reverse the trends and momentum we are seeing there.

[Graeme]

AP, Thanks for the suggestion. I'll stick my neck out and state that we will fall off the plateau in 2023 because that's when the GNE falls to zero (see MBS figure here).

[John_A]

Even Monte reacted appropriately when faced with higher prices. He bought a scooter! Economic stimuli gets to most of us, sooner or later.

post833047.html?hilit=scooter#p833047

Everybody get a scooter is your solution?

It has been suggested before. Monte was an early adopter. AP went for it as well I believe.

This isn't difficult folks....when changes in behavior can have BIG effects, the original problem just doesn't have the kick hoped for. Look how peak oil went...not a shortage in sight for crying out loud, can't stop traffic jams or the growth of suburbia, NASCAR or the airlines from making some pretty nice money nowadays.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... urbia.html

[AirlinePilot]

Yep I own one..have for 4 years now. Its paid for itself at least once already in the fuel savings alone. The problem is im nothing more than a joke to most folks...even after the last price spike in gasoline. Folks just do not understand.

[Keith_McClary]

can't stop ... the growth of suburbia

[John_A]

Yep I own one..have for 4 years now. Its paid for itself at least once already in the fuel savings alone. The problem is im nothing more than a joke to most folks...even after the last price spike in gasoline. Folks just do not understand.

Because peak oil didn't do its job. Its job was to rattle sheeple to their CORE, rationing of 5 gallons a week per household, shortages and a thriving black market as declining liquid fuels put the mother of all squeezes on commuters and suburbia and airliners and transoceanic shipping.

Instead pickup trucks are still the most popular new vehicle in America, people are flying all over the place, traffic jams just won't die, or even let up, ICE cars are hitting 40 mpg, big hybrids doing that or better, and if you don't want to you don't even need to use liquid fuels to commute to work or another town.

Oh COURSE they don't understand, all that happened was fuel got a little more expensive, and folks used a little less.