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PeakOil is You

THE Jay Hanson Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE Jay Hanson Thread (merged)

Unread postby Aaron » Mon 07 Jun 2004, 14:11:26

Once global oil peaks, and we NEED to start pumping Saddam's oil, I expect Americans to invade and OCCUPY Iraq. Moreover, profits will flow to friends of George Bush -- not some wild-eyed, gun-waving crackpot like Saddam.
link

"A Peak Under the Covers" by Jay Hanson, 11/11/97
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 12 Oct 2009, 14:19:03, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merge thread.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Unread postby rowante » Tue 08 Jun 2004, 23:35:53

Written in '97, prophetic or just lucky? Still think the invasion of Iraq was about terrorism or WMD? Still believe Bush's lies?
Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley

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Unread postby hymalaia » Tue 08 Jun 2004, 23:48:13

Well the invasion of Iraq and removal of Saddam has been talked about for a long time, ever since Gulf War 1. It was a neo-conservative thing, and completely fell by the wayside during the Clinton administration. The idea was about securing the oil fields yes, but more using Iraq as a starting point to expand our military empire while we had the chance, as for the first time in history we were the world's lone super-power. These ideas come from the likes of Cheany, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc, long ago, it's all written down here:

www.newamericancentury.org

Of particular interest is in the document "Rebuilding America's Defenses", where there is a quote on page 50-something about needing another "pearl harbor type" event to be a catalyst for public support for revamping the armed forces.

But beside the point, Hanson's predictions weren't that prophetic...
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Unread postby rowante » Wed 09 Jun 2004, 03:14:28

Producing oil is obviously a self-depleting activity. Every year, you’ve got to find and develop reserves equal to your output - just to stand still, just to stay even. This is true for companies as well in the broader economic sense for the world. A new merged company like Exxon-Mobil will have to secure over a billion and a half barrels of new oil equivalent reserves every year just to replace existing production. It’s like making a return of 100% interest on investment. It’s like discovering another major field of some 500 million barrels every four months, or finding two Hibernia’s [a major find off Canada] a year. For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our 71 million barrels a day of oil depletion, and also to meet new demand. By some estimates, there will be an average of 2% annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with, conservatively, a 3% natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010, we will need in the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day. So, where is the oil going to come from?

Governments and the national oil companies obviously control about 90% of the assets. Oil remains funda-mentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies...............


Dick Cheney, 1999. From the latest ASPO newsletter http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL42/newsletter42.pdf
Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley

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Unread postby MadScientist » Wed 09 Jun 2004, 12:11:37

http://www.dieoff.org/page181.htm

I like the last paragraph best:

A hundred thousand years from now -- once the background radiation levels drop below lethality -- a new Homo mutilus will crawl out of the caves to elect a leader. Although we have no idea what mutilus might look like, evolutionary theory can still tell us who will win the election. He will be the best liar running on a platform to end hunger by controlling nature.

How could it be otherwise?

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Jay Hanson is right

Unread postby Chicagoan » Fri 02 Jul 2004, 05:16:55

His die off (http://dieoff.org/) website just makes too much sense. Most of us are not going to make it. Our population is way too big. I hope the die-off is quick. That way the survivors will have more resources to rebuild society. Hopefully one that has new respect for the limits of technology and our fragile environment.
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righto

Unread postby J-Blade » Sat 03 Jul 2004, 03:56:36

I too would agree with that. But I think it's weird how we can't stop ourselves. :x
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Thu 08 Jul 2004, 04:01:39

What gets me is the population charts. Every species does this.

Every species, when given enough resources will consume more and more and more and see their population grow and grow and grow until the alst generation.

That last generation will be left with 50 percent of the original resources base, which it will consume as it dies off.

It is mind boggling that we are doing the exact same thing.

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New extreme sports

Unread postby Sencha » Thu 15 Jul 2004, 20:51:47

I hope I'm not going too off-topic here, but I think the die-off would have some benefits.

In the Arthur C. Clarke's novel "Childhood's End" there is something similar to what we know as the die-off. I'm not going to track down the actual excerpt, but he describes a point in time in which humans have little left to live for. The only humans that remain, are the only ones that will ever exist after a certain point.

So, they spend alot of their time taking part in "suicidal games" as the book said.

There could be some awesome extreme sports opportunities. Remember the game in that Mad Max movie Beyond Thunderdome? Or the gameshow in "The Running Man"?

The games would be ultra violent, immoral, politically incorrect and inhumane, but the entertainment value would be unprecedented. I hope I don't sound too sick, I mean after all there was the roman colleseum. I'm sure the minds behind gladiator matches had similar ideas.
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Unread postby Sencha » Thu 15 Jul 2004, 20:53:31

correction: politically incorrect

Depending on whether or not politics even exist at that point.

I'd compete in the russian roulette championships.
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Unread postby Guest » Tue 20 Jul 2004, 13:35:41

Sencha wrote:correction: politically incorrect

Depending on whether or not politics even exist at that point.

I'd compete in the russian roulette championships.


I've often wondered to what depths reality TV could sink. Now that you mention it, coupled with the die-off, something like The Running Man could be the next big thing. At least, when the oil crisis hits hard, that is.
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Unread postby Kingcoal » Fri 01 Oct 2004, 18:33:57

Human populations are different than say, yeast. Humans will continue on. However, I think we're looking at a lot of social controls in the future.

If the economy does break down to the point where governments fall, make beer and wine. Bankrupt, downtrodden humans will always be up for a drink - even if they are starving. Some people stock pile guns, which is like putting George Bush in charge of your survival stategy. A much better stategy is to help people forget about life for a while with a drink.
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Unread postby Grond » Mon 04 Oct 2004, 11:45:52

So, they spend alot of their time taking part in "suicidal games" as the book said.

There could be some awesome extreme sports opportunities. Remember the game in that Mad Max movie Beyond Thunderdome? Or the gameshow in "The Running Man"?

The games would be ultra violent, immoral, politically incorrect and inhumane, but the entertainment value would be unprecedented. I hope I don't sound too sick, I mean after all there was the roman colleseum. I'm sure the minds behind gladiator matches had similar ideas.


You already have shows like Survivor and Fear Factor.

Think about what is already on the air now and doing phenomenally well in ratings, selling what amounts to soft core violence and pornography. People doing crazy stunts high in the air. People jumping from one moving vehicle to another.

But instead of choosing your contestants from the audience pool you go to the local prison work farms and recruit people to either work for the chance at big money or reduction in sentences. Non violent offenders. Nobody that anyone would mind getting out of jail early or cashing in on the grand prize.

Take these inmates and shoot the shows like normal, except lose the safety harnesses and nets from Fear Factor and couple it with the plot of Survivor. Conestants try to outsurvive each other in games of chance like hanging from a narrow rope attached to a helicopter 500 ft in tha air over busy Chicago rush hour traffic. Take bets on who will last the longest.

And of course, all contestants have signed away their legal rights with acknowledgment of death and/or injury waivers. of Now you basically have The Running Man. (Are you listening Mr. Richard "Rebel Billionaire" Branson?)

It's probably only 4-5 seasons away. And frankly I don't think peak oil has anything to do with it :twisted:

At first it will be just late night prime time for the adults. Then the reruns will start playing on every other station around 4pm whent he kids are getting home from school. And then even this won't be interesting enough to keep the attention of your average television watcher who is bored sick of America's Funniest Police Beatings Caught on Tape. Who knows what could be next.

Celebrity Deathmatch (for real)
Dodging Bullets for Dollars.
Tiger Attack!
Our Money or Your Life.
Who Wants To Be A Super Duper Millionaire (on life support)?


Take my advice, kill your television...........I'm outta here [smilie=car3.gif]
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Unread postby Jenab » Thu 14 Oct 2004, 17:16:15

MattSavinar wrote:What gets me is the population charts. Every species does this.

Every species, when given enough resources will consume more and more and more and see their population grow and grow and grow until the alst generation.

That last generation will be left with 50 percent of the original resources base, which it will consume as it dies off.

It is mind boggling that we are doing the exact same thing.

That really isn't so strange. Consider that you have what it takes, or took, to be a lawyer, though you chose not to be one because of what you learned about Peak Oil. Likewise, I have what it takes to be an astrophysicist, though I passed it up in favor of moving into the West Virginia hills to prepare for the end of the industrial age and to enjoy the beauty of the fall leaves in October - spectacular, by the way.

Most humans do not operate at our level of consciousness, and you give humans in general way too much credit when you remark on their blithe following the population growth curve all the way to overshoot and die-off, as though it were some sort of paradoxical oddity. Most humans who think that they think are wrong: they sit in front of TV sets whose programming occupies their minds but simultaneously prevents them from initiating their use. Otherwise, those same people are completely absorbed with the practicalities of life, in dealing with, say, the economic and logistical problems of their family's social schedules: Joe Sixpack and Sally Soccer Mom.

Fossil fuels really should have been harder to reach, so that we wouldn't have gotten to them as soon as we did - not until our level of consciousness had fortified us with the wisdom to match our technical prowess.

Humans reached the oil at a point when only the very highest among them had begun to realize the trend of consciousness through past ages to the present, and extended that trend into the future.

That is, there were a few people who understood that what was special about Man wasn't any particular excellence as a species, but that he was the first of Earth's creatures to cross a peculiar threshold. With the expanding consciousness of those few men, Earth for the first time harbored living creatures able to look above the struggles of life to see what glories might one day grace the Earth, if Man did his part correctly.

But not enough humans matured to this higher consciousness in time to alter the course of human destiny. There was an attempt to do so, but it was crushed by entrenched forces of greed and powerlust.

The pity is: we came so close to success, and yet failed in the end. The death forces won (see Savitri Devi), and the universe will forget us. At some other time, on some other planet, nature will repeat the labor she did in vain on Earth over the past three billion years, perhaps with a better result. But it won't be us.

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Unread postby chris-h » Thu 14 Oct 2004, 18:52:42

It ain't over until
the fat lady sings


:)
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Unread postby tmazanec1 » Mon 01 Nov 2004, 15:02:04

Or rats or raccoons or beavers or mongooses or kangaroos will get the next try in a few hundred thousand centuries...
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Ted Nugent vs Jay Hanson

Unread postby Ayoob » Thu 01 Jun 2006, 11:02:10

Here's a selection from each interview. It's so fascinating to me how these two guys essentially say the same thing in very different ways.

Noodge:

He explains his political philosophy which, as I understand it, is based on extending the death penalty to a far wider range of crimes than homicide, then arming any survivors to the teeth. He owns around 350 guns himself - more than one for every household in Crawford.

British police who don't want to carry firearms are, Nugent says, "out of their minds. I say if somebody robs you, shoot 'em. I'd like all thieves killed. And all rapists. And carjackers. No more graffiti. No more..." - this next phrase is a Spoonerism, rather than some Texan term for gross indecency - "snatch-pursing."

"For an unarmed force," I suggest, "the British police have shot quite a few people. Did you hear about Jean Charles de Menezes?"

"That was horrible. An American cop would have just beat the shit out of him."

Nugent has had a Sheriff Deputy's badge since 1982, and recently assisted with federal raids, "kicking down doors and arresting people". A keen admirer of fellow-guitarist Tony Blair, he abhors drugs, including alcohol, and maintains that he has never used such substances. He considers homosexuality morally wrong. He speaks about Muslims in a way which, were he to repeat it on globally networked television, might endanger his life. Nugent is aiming to run as Governor of Michigan in 2010.

"If Yusuf Islam is a threat to world peace," I tell him, in response to his anti-Islamic rant, "I'll run your campaign myself, wearing cactus shorts."

"Only the guilty need feel guilty," he replies. "These jihadists want to kill us and Cat Stevens. The message to send to a coyote is: the next time I see you, I'll shoot you."

He went to Fallujah in May 2004, as part of a tour with the USO (the same organisation that sent Bob Hope to entertain on the front line).

"And I visited Saddam Hussein's master war room. It was a glorious moment. It looked like something out of Star Wars. I saw his gold toilet. I shit in his bidet."

In Iraq, he says, he was allowed the opportunity to man automatic weapons. "Our failure," he tells me, "has been not to Nagasaki them."

"Is that opinion shared by your friends in the Republican Party?"

"Most of them feel that way."

"At what level?"

"I've heard it from high-level senators and congressmen."

"How high?"

"The highest."

"Do you mean Rumsfeld, Cheney, or Bush?"

"No," he says, with a defiant look.

We get into his pick-up, which is piled high with gun cases and food for the deer that roam his woodland, and set off for his estate. I tell Nugent how, 20 years ago, having observed a slaughterhouse at first hand, I decided to stop eating anything I felt I couldn't kill myself, and have since got by on fruit, vegetables and fish.

"That's my premise too," says Ted. Then: "Hang on - are you saying you don't eat lamb?"

"Yes."

"Well, my hunting system is pure. These people who passively connive in that hideous assembly-line slaughter are in denial, yet they condemn my natural gathering system. That is a bizarre mindset." Just to set the mood, he fires the .22 out of the open cab window.

Rebuttal from Jay:

Q: And in ancient Afghanistan, they played polo using human heads.

A: Right, and [that might happen again and] it could be on TV and play to huge audiences. It’s arbitrary. What these things actually are [the content of a moral code] is irrelevant. It doesn’t make any difference, it’s all the same thing to the genes. Moral philosophy is irrelevant because it is nothing more than a rationalization of the act. The discussion about philosophy is based on the incorrect view that people consciously think about a subject, and then they act. But the reality is exactly the opposite — people act then rationalize. This is literally true. This also self-evidentially true. Where else could consciousness come from except that meat between your ears?


Q: But this elimination of moral philosophy still leaves us with the existential problem, of suffering — that we ourselves undergo and what we see mirrored in others. Otherwise, there’s nothing to discuss.

A: Yes. I don’t have a moral theory but I have morality. I don’t lie knowingly, I don’t cheat people, I don’t hurt anything. But I don’t need to rationalize it. It’s built in. And that’s where it all comes from, it’s built-in. People act in ways that make them feel good and then invent social rationalizations designed to increase social rankings and fitness, or bond them to their tribe, after the fact. These social rationalizations can be almost anything that increases fitness. The actions that make them feel good consist of a basic genetic set, plus others, which may also be one hundred percent genetic, selected by the environment when they were maturing. So from what we are when we’re born, and as we’re raised, these values or morals are instilled. Then when we grow up, we have to tell other people why we do that, so we can form tribes. I don’t join tribes. So, I don’t care. I don’t bother any more. Why bother? Hey I saw Jesus — so what? And Elvis isn’t dead either. [laughs]



Q: That leads into something you’ve written about just in passing, which is that when you thoroughly understand the implications of genetics and evolutionary psychology, you come to view people as absolute automata, as robots, thoroughly and completely conditioned.

A: Yes.



Q: Can you say anything about the personal experience of looking at things that way?

A: People literally make decisions, decide what they’re going to do, subconsciously. And the conscious [rationalization] follows some time later. It’s literally true. Consciousness is a meat by-product. Continued reflection and reading can alter those algorithms that are making those decisions, but it’s not an immediate kind of a thing. It’s organic, and we don’t have direct access to those algorithms. I could try to go in and say ‘I’m going to change the way I think about such-and-such, tomorrow’ — but I can’t do that. If it’s going to happen it will be by education, reading, critical thinking, and reflection, whatever — over time. You need to pay constant attention even after you understand, so you don’t revert. A lot of this stuff keeps trying to draw me back. It’s like you’re climbing out of a slippery pit here. And those genes want you back.

Clarification from His Nugeness:

"I know you do a lot of charity work for wounded veterans. Has it occurred to you that someone else may have died in Saigon because you didn't go?"

"Absolutely."

Nugent's name, as I am sure he's aware, appears, along with those of Cheney, Bush and many of their fellow Republicans, on a website called chickenhawks.com. It lists those who have evaded or abbreviated their own military service then, later in life, developed an appetite for war and machismo, either personally or by proxy.

"So has this made you..." "Certainly. Because I failed to serve in Vietnam, I feel an obligation now, to do everything I can to support those defending our freedom. Do I feel guilt and embarrassment? Yes."

"You missed your calling."

"I wish I'd understood how important America's fight against our enemies was. But did I go to Fallujah two years ago? Damn right I did. And was I in Afghanistan, manning a 50-calibre machine gun in a Chinook - ready to rock? Yes. Was I there for years? No. A couple of weeks. But I am not a coward."

We take a break. Nugent sits by a small amp and plays tunes by Chuck Berry and Jimmy Reed. Though he's sometimes derided as a circus act, watching him close up it's not hard to understand why people have likened him to Jimi Hendrix, or how John Peel came to call "Cat Scratch Fever" the best rock single of its year. His decision to restrict his berserk talent to heavy rock has undoubtedly masked his virtuosity. Not that this bothers Ted. "GOD SENT ME HERE TO MAKE SURE THESE LICKS CAME OFF OF A GUITAR. THEY ARE PERFECT. THEY ARE FUCKING PHENOMENAL."

They are. But there is something unnerving about Nugent, both as a musician and a human being. I think it's to do with the way that sex, killing, and rock'n'roll seem to have melded in his mind, into one intense, (omega) primeval compulsion. Nugent tells me that, as a younger man, sex was his true addiction. Speaking off tape, he confides rather more than I need to know.

He married his first wife Sandy when both were 22. They had two children, Sasha and Toby. Sandy divorced him seven years later, accusing him of "bizarre sexual practices". She also alleged he defecated in paper cups.

"I supposedly shit in a bowl of whipped cream. God, I wish I had." Sandy died in 1982, in a car crash.

"Which was apparently drink related?"

"So I believe," says Nugent, a patron of Mothers Against Drunk Driving. "Drugs and alcohol." Arguments over Sandy's substance abuse, Nugent says, caused their divorce. "I can't imagine you were monogamous." "Of course I wasn't. But that wasn't why she divorced me."

He married Shemane - now a TV producer, then a Detroit radio reporter - in 1989.

"You have four children - the two from your first marriage, Rocco, and a child by a teenage girlfriend..."

"Who was given out for adoption."

Nugent pauses.

"It's five, actually. I had a child out of wedlock 10 years ago. I suggest you include that, to show what a prick I am. Here I am, railing against people who do drugs, and I did something like that."

This isn't quite so dramatic a confessional moment as it might appear: Shemane's entertaining autobiography, Married to a Rock Star, offers a compassionate but frank account of Ted's struggles in the battle for fidelity, and a paternity suit was filed by the mother of his youngest child in August 2003.

I recall a music writer visiting Nugent in the late 1970s and observing that he had "never seen so many girls on one bed". ("Stick around," the guitarist told him.)

"I got that out of my system," says Nugent. "But I do believe that we were put here to breed."

I'm not sure that I've ever met anybody whose opinions and instincts are more directly opposed to my own. And yet, in some odd way, I find Ted Nugent impossible to dislike: I think because I consider him to be a psychotic - by the classic definition that he does not perceive the world as others do.

He has become sincerely persuaded that, to quote Alabama 3's paraphrase of Chairman Mao, "change must come through the barrel of a gun". Nugent says he worked tirelessly in George W Bush's campaign to be elected Governor of Texas: "I had a great communication with him then." More recently, he has criticised the President for feeble liberalism, especially concerning border controls. But Nugent remains a cherished if wayward, member of the Republican family.

Retort from Jay:

Q: If you personally acquired enormous political power, on the outrageous scale of, say, Joseph Stalin in the 1930’s, what actions would you take? Would you stock up a palace with a squadron of Praetorian Guards and a harem and then just enjoy the ride, or would you establish some Draconian program of absolute controls on human mobility, consumption, and reproduction, which are the three categories of required controls you’ve identified in your writings? If you’d go for the authoritarian approach, can you share with us some details on how you might work that?

A: I’d take the Praetorian Guards and the harem [laughs]. If I wanted to be in politics I would be.



Q: Nothing at all could be done?

A: Well, you might get together the brightest people in the country and have them work on it. There’s nothing I can see that can be done. However, if they were to have a Manhattan Project, with all the best evolutionary biologists, microbiologists, etc., maybe they could come up with some kind of gene tweaker or something. Some kind of drug they could give people.



Q: It would have to be a model of total control? There’s no other way?

A: Exactly.



Q: So in the best case, we’re looking at something between ‘1984’ and ‘Brave New World’ - total lockdown. And that’s in the best case.

A: Absolutely. On some previous forums and discussion lists we tried to figure out if there’s any way we could make a sustainable society. But we couldn’t see any way. Because you have the problem of reproduction. How do you keep people from reproducing? Do you give them a shot when they’re born?



Q: Or a dog and cat model?

A: Here’s the problem. The problem is that people evolved specifically to overcome social constraints on inclusive fitness. That’s what we’re for, that’s what we’re good at. So no matter what kind of controls other people put on us, we’re going to sit down and figure out how to get around it.

-------------------------------------------

And that's the ball game! From the nerdiest dieoff doomer to a rock star fucking hotties ten at a time, the conclusion is: Kick ass and take names! You are on your own, nobody is going to help you.
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Re: Ted Nugent vs Jay Hanson

Unread postby killJOY » Fri 02 Jun 2006, 09:55:39

This is precious. Great finds.

I have a fantasy: The Spooge shows up at my door, calls me a fag to my face, and I shoot him. :)

I can't help but like Jay. He sounds hopeless, but his very awareness of the way we tick is ... well, redemptive.

It just doesn't mean shit because you can't implement universal knowledge of the topic without, like, killing everyone who disagrees.

He's right about all the evolutionary stuff. I got hooked on evol. psych. about ten years ago, before I got hooked on peak oil. Jay was my entree into the PO stuff. The way he neatly connected all the recent cognitive science stuff to energy depletion just struck me as perfect, as if it was something in the back of my own mind but I wasn't yet able to articulate it to myself.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Ted Nugent vs Jay Hanson

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Fri 02 Jun 2006, 12:54:12

Nice little doomerific gem.
BTW, the interview with Jay can be found here

Here's another noteworthy snippet:

"When you are doing research on human nature, you need to look at people at their worst, not at their best. What are people capable of? What are ordinary, average, everyday people, you and I, or our neighbors, capable of?"
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Re: Ted Nugent vs Jay Hanson

Unread postby killJOY » Fri 02 Jun 2006, 13:40:59

SOMEONE PLEASE LOCK TED NUGENT IN A ROOM WITH THIS LITTLE GIRL.

"Are there no stones in heaven but what serves for the thunder?" --Othello.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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