ROCKMAN wrote:pstarr - The interesting aspect of Ron's projection is that it's based mostly on data generated during periods of much higher oil prices then we currently have. especially true for the Bakken. That seems to imply a geologic limit. Now superimpose the effect of prices being as much as 1/3rd less on top of the apparent geologic limit and it might make his projections look a tad optimistic. As I've said before we'll get a clear picture by the end of 1Q 2017. In the meantime everyone can just speculate to their heart's content. lol
Pops wrote:Hats off to Ron Patterson at POB for continuing good work, this is from a post by David Archibald
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:Pops wrote:Hats off to Ron Patterson at POB for continuing good work, this is from a post by David Archibald
Just over a year ago I commented that it looked like Ron had done a pretty darn good job with his projection.
I have come to rethink that a bit. That isn't to say Ron Patterson was wrong and Peak Oil isn't real. However it has turned out that once you get past that first year of 50-70 percent depletion rate things start to stabilize and by the time a fracked well has been producing for three years its decline rate is much more pleasant for all of us.....
I have searched several times over the last year to try and find out how many of the wells drilled and fracked in 2008-2011 are still producing and at what rate.
Plantagenet wrote:According to this project US shale oil production should fall by 50% by 2017 and drop to near zero in few more years. This is totally, completely and absolutely wrong.
Plantagent wrote:Consider just shale oil production from the Permian in Texas. It hasn't peaked at 1 million bbls per day as the clowns who made that prediction said it would---its up near 2 million bbles/day and still going up. And the estimated shale oil reserves in the Permian are something like 60 BILLION barrels---thats as big as Saudi Arabia. At current rates of production it should last for decades.
Plantagenet wrote:Consider just shale oil production from the Permian in Texas. It hasn't peaked at 1 million bbls per day as the clowns who made that prediction said it would---its up near 2 million bbles/day and still going up. And the estimated shale oil reserves in the Permian are something like 60 BILLION barrels---thats as big as Saudi Arabia. At current rates of production it should last for decades.
ROCKMAN wrote:Goner - And to save space here's the link to my fresh hot of the presses post explaining why the debate of the potential for the "imminent peaking in US oil production" is rather pointless IMHO.
yportne wrote:My demand has changed. Circa 35 to 40 years ago I owned a big Ford station wagon and a used Cadillac. Both got about 10 mpg. At that time manufacturers were having drivability problems at least partly related to the phase-out of tetraethyl lead. Today I own a Honda Accord and a Prius, averaging 3 to 4 times better. The current cars are also more dependable. Surely such changes have impacted the timing of oil deprivation.
pstarr wrote:Actually Pop's post and chart from 2014 was widely optimistic.
What it really looks like. Yes Planty, a collapse.
EIA’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) Reference case projects that U.S. tight oil production will increase to more than 6 million barrels per day (b/d) in the coming decade, making up most of total U.S. oil production. After 2026, tight oil production remains relatively constant through 2040 in the Reference case as tight oil development moves into less productive areas and as well productivity decreases. Side cases with different resource and technology assumptions result in different tight oil and total U.S. oil production projections.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29932
pstarr wrote:It's very funny funny Adamb. Reminds me of this:
lol
Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 69 guests