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THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Re: Is a new Ice Age upon us?

Unread postby JustaGirl » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 01:26:30

GoghGoner wrote:sixstrings or any other cooling believer,
Care to make a wager on whether the annual mean temperature anomaly based on NASA b/w 2009-2015 exceeds one of the top 4 years? I haven't figured out the probablity but the odds are greatly in your favor if we are in the cooling trend that you contend.
$150/ 6 month locked in an account administered by a neutral third party. If at any point, the other person doesn't pay the ante then the money goes to the other person. The bet continues until the temperature data comes back for the year 2015 if neither party drops out. So the winning purse will have a min value of $150 and a max value of $2250. Initial deposit immediate and then on 6/30 and 12/31 of each year.

Based on GISS, the anomaly must exceed 0.56
1995 .38 .29
1996 .30 .38
1997 .40 .39
1998 .57 .38
1999 .33 .42
2000 .33 .45
2001 .48 .45
2002 .56 .48
2003 .55 .54
2004 .48 .55
2005 .62 .55
2006 .55 .53
2007 .57 *
2008 .44 *
GISS Data

We'll still have the internet in 2015? This is the best news I've heard all year!! :-D
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THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Unread postby Vogelzang » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 21:42:44

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Re: THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 08 May 2013, 12:16:23

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqsRD4HPtH0

Wonderful documentary to show us all how to fix global cooling!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 11 (merged)

Unread postby Rune » Sat 02 Nov 2013, 18:44:16

Scientists Increasingly Moving to Global Cooling Concensus

Critics of those who claim that man-made global warming is a serious threat to the planet and settled science frequently point to the fickleness of scientists on the issue, noting that in the 60s and 70s scientists were warning of just the opposite. It now appears the critic’s claims may have merit as a new consensus is beginning to once again return to the global cooling model.

Adherents of man-made global warming have supported the issue in a way akin to that of religious zealots, even to the point of attempting to cover up evidence that runs contrary to their beliefs or portrays it in a negative light.

Global warming has been blamed for every recent catastrophe including wildfires in America even when they have been started by human activity, Hurricane Sandy, and even for the recent rash of cold spells that have descended upon much of the world.

However, even in the midst of their support for the theory, they appear to have acknowledged there are serious issues with claiming that record cold winters are the result of global warming. In the 1990s, they frequently made calls for governments to take steps to issue regulations to curtail “global warming.” However, they now generally do not use the phrase any longer, instead calling on combating “climate change.”

It is unclear exactly how that is supposed to happen since the very definition itself means that if the weather changes from one day to the next that is climate change. However, scientists are now beginning to rethink their climate change models and are seriously discussing the possibility the earth is entering into a period of global cooling.

Environmentalist Lawrence Solomon writing in the Financial Post cites the fact that solar activity is currently decreasing at one of the fastest rates as anytime the last 10,000 years. Because of this, he says many scientists are actually reverting from the mantra of global warming and are now subscribing to the possibility of global cooling as occurring.

“Now an increasing number of scientists are swinging back to the thinking of the 1960s and 1970s,” Solomon writes. “The global cooling hypothesis may have been right after all, they say. Earth may be entering a new Little Ice Age.”

He further goes on to note that Columbia University’s George Kukla- who warned the US government about the dangers of global cooling back in 1972 claimed that global warming “always precedes an ice age… The warming we saw in the 1980s and 1990s, in other words, was expected all along, much as the calm before the storm.”

One of the public-relations problems facing man-made global warming adherents is that individuals are able to look around and see the effects of increasingly cold weather that they are able to experience personally. Europe and many parts of America have experienced record snowfalls at even later periods in the year in recent years. This causes people to ask if the alarmists are warning about the planet getting warmer, then how can they explain it getting colder.

Rather than blame man-made activity for weather change on the planet, scientists have recently begun looking at solar activity as a predictor of world climate. Data available has revealed that low solar activity has been connected with cold eras in human history, while the opposite has occurred during higher solar activity such as what happened during the recent period form the 1950s to the 1990s.

Evidence of solar activity affecting climate appeared on Mars, when a probe revealed that the planet’s icepack was also experiencing global warming and receding. This prompted skeptics of man-made global warming to mockingly say that it is amazing how our probes are now causing global warming on Mars.


Now, let's get one rhing perfectly clear: I don't have a strongly-felt opinion about either global warming or global cooling.

I am just a guy who likes to read about such things. I am aware that sea-levels are not accelerating. I am aware that the global warming crowd is vehement and that the debate is highly contentious and alos politically-charged.

I am amused that I am seeing articles such as the one above. It took me 5 seconds to google "global cooling" and find this one. There are plenty of others.

I do not pretend to know the future. I only read things.

If I stumble upon a fact such as "The Eemian Integlacial was appreciably warmer than our equivalent period in the Holocene", it makes me wonder why it was warmer and what effect did all that warming have on the prior Earth climate and ecosystems.

And since I am not afraid to google something like "global cooling" and read some of the opinion or hypothesis or factual evidence, I do so. It does not mean that I "believe" in global cooling. Nor do I have any good reason to believe in the global warming hysteria since I cannot see the evidence of accelerating sea levels.

If I read something that says that Arctic ice has declined while Antarctic ice has increased, it makes me wondeer about the reasons. And I will continue to read about the subject with interest and amusement.

But that's it. I don't really have a position staked-out on either issue - warming vs cooling - and I don't really feel like I need to have one. I simply learn a thing or two here and there and watch what happens as time marches on.

I think the Earth has been in a warming cycle over the last 30-40 years. I don't think that scientists are so inept that they cannot verify he absence of sunspots or cannot observe the Sun's polarity swap. I'm very interested to see if this has some effect on Earth's climate. I am very interested to see whether THAT all turns out to be bullshit.

But, I am just a guy who reads this stuff. That's it!

I have read a whole boatload of dire warnings about global warming - all based upon predictions and too reliant on very immature and faulty computer models. I lost a lot of respect for the IPCC a few years ago. But I promise to read their report when it comes out. And since the whole thing is interesting, I will read counter-vailing views as well.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 11 (merged)

Unread postby Rune » Sat 02 Nov 2013, 19:26:16

And Now It's GLOBAL COOLING!

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.

In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.

The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter  climate change.

Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.

From what I have read, this is much, much worse than global warming. Food production is much more negatively affected by cooling trends than by warming trends.

During cooling phases, evaporation and precipitation declines and deserts expand. Millions could starve.

A cooling trend, for example, has been offered as one of the perhaps many reasons that the Roman Empire failed. It didn't let up until just before the Renaissance.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 11 (merged)

Unread postby Rune » Sat 02 Nov 2013, 19:43:56

Forbes: To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists Global Cooling Is Here

The increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century just reflects the end of the Little Ice Age. The global temperature trends since then have followed not rising CO2 trends but the ocean temperature cycles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 20 to 30 years, the much colder water near the bottom of the oceans cycles up to the top, where it has a slight cooling effect on global temperatures until the sun warms that water. That warmed water then contributes to slightly warmer global temperatures, until the next churning cycle.

Those ocean temperature cycles, and the continued recovery from the Little Ice Age, are primarily why global temperatures rose from 1915 until 1945, when CO2 emissions were much lower than in recent years. The change to a cold ocean temperature cycle, primarily the PDO, is the main reason that global temperatures declined from 1945 until the late 1970s, despite the soaring CO2 emissions during that time from the postwar industrialization spreading across the globe.

The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that global temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then, if not actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. As The Economist magazine reported in March, “The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750.” Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes.

At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA’s Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,

“Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion.”

That is even more significant because NASA’s climate science has been controlled for years by global warming hysteric James Hansen, who recently announced his retirement.

But this same concern is increasingly being echoed worldwide. The Voice of Russia reported on April 22, 2013,

“Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless.”

That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying, “Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.” In other words, another Little Ice Age.


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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 11 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 02 Nov 2013, 20:32:09

Are we heading into global cooling?

Climate Myth...

We're heading into cooling

"The climate of this planet oscillates between periods of approximately 30 years of warming followed by approximately 30 years of cooling. Rather than 100 years of unprecedented global warming as predicted by IPCC, the global temperatures have leveled off and we seem to be heading for cooler weather." (Matt Vooro)

In the face of the immense amount of evidence that the anthropogenic warming signal is driving the long-term temperature trend, it's hard to believe that any scientists would be predicting that this trend will suddenly reverse despite ever-increasing human greenhouse gas emissions. For example, according to NASA GISS, 2009 was tied for the second-hottest year on record, and 2010 will likely be the hottest in the past 130+ years. The first decade of the 21st century was the hottest decade on record, the evidence is overwhelming that humans are the dominant cause of the warming trend, climate scientists have even quantified the anthropogenic warming, and heat continues to accumulate in the planetary system:


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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 02 Nov 2013, 22:21:13

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 11 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 02 Nov 2013, 22:29:58

This rune dude is obviously loony toons. I leave him in you folk's capable hands. Doesn't seem like he's worth wasting another key stroke over, to me. Best of luck to all in an uncertain future.
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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby americandream » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 00:09:56

The chances of the planet cooling are pretty remote. The existing climate envelope has been lagging the changed natural environment around which it had ranged itself. Had the massive deforestation not taken place along with all the changes in its gasous makeup, we were certainly headed for another cold age. Chances of that now are as remote as the Second Coming.
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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby americandream » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 00:17:49

Increased precipitation from the melting of the longer term stuff will create shorter term thinner stuff (happening in Antartica). Pretty basic actually.

Of course, people are desperate to continue buying garden gnomes so they will concoct/believe any old shit.
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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby americandream » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 01:06:18

Solar influence and atmosphere are as relevant. Why else is the moon without any real sphere wide climate. Mess around with the gaseous envelope and you will get trouble as the envelope will shift to a range that reflects its makeup.

This is pretty basic stuff. I am amazed that this solar shit is thrown up in the face of all the other evidence dotted throughout our solar system. As I said, it can only be desperation at the prospect of where we might be headed.

Rune wrote:I'm not desperate about this stuff. I just noticed this contrary view emerging.

It's not just one or two articles; there's a whole bunch of stuff - what looks like a fairly significant challenge to the AGW thesis.

The Russians, especially, are big on solar influences on climate rather than CO2.

It's definitely worth reading about.
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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 01:46:37

Rune wrote:I'm not desperate about this stuff. I just noticed this contrary view emerging.

Have you noticed where it's emerging from?

You are "interested" enough to read all this "out there" stuff you get from random googling and then cut'n'paste it here, but not interested enough to comprehend it or evaluate it. And then you get all huffy when anyone else critically evaluates it.

:roll:
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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 02:04:00

Keith_McClary wrote:
Rune wrote:I'm not desperate about this stuff. I just noticed this contrary view emerging.

Have you noticed where it's emerging from?


From the [assholes of writers of] the Telegraph and Forbes and WSJ?

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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 02:09:52

jedrider wrote:From the [assholes of writers of] the Telegraph and Forbes and WSJ?
I refrained from using the term "sun don't shine" about where the Global Cooling stuff emerges from.
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Re: The Great Global Cooling Thread

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 06:13:13

americandream wrote:The chances of the planet cooling are pretty remote. The existing climate envelope has been lagging the changed natural environment around which it had ranged itself. Had the massive deforestation not taken place along with all the changes in its gasous makeup, we were certainly headed for another cold age. Chances of that now are as remote as the Second Coming.

This is my take on things as well, but with the increases in ocean heat and the weakening solar energy reaching the planet, it's the changes in weather patterns that will have the greatest affect.

Some places will get warmer and others will get cooler, Western Europe could easily experience a "mini ice age" while the global temperature remains higher than today.

If the sun was to really drop it's energy output, then of course, all bets are off!
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Re: THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 08:07:47

Fortunately for us the Sun has maintained a remarkably narrow band of output variation demonstrated in the fossil record. The sun was dimmer in the past and will be brighter in the future, but the rate of change is very slow and steady and the extreme flare events are almost non-existant.
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Re: THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Unread postby Timo » Mon 04 Nov 2013, 13:12:32

http://phys.org/news/2013-10-pacific-ocean-absorbing-faster-years.html

The middle depths of our oceans have been absorbing more heat over the past 60 years than they have over the previous 10,000! What this means in the long run, i have no idea, but condensing 10,000 years of heat absorption into only 60 years cannot be considered normal. Also, how that changes life in our oceans at those rising temperatures is surely something to consider, aside from our fantasies of global cooling.
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Re: THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 04 Nov 2013, 14:16:44

Due to changes in the CO2 content of the atmosphere the Earth is not in energy balance at the current time. As things stand today more energy is entering the Earth system than is escaping to space, and this energy is being expressed by melting ice and increasing the temperature of the Ocean as a whole. Once the system reaches equilibrium the temperatures will stop going up and the Earth will radiate the same amount of energy away that it takes in from the outside.
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Re: THE Global Cooling Thread Pt. 2(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Nov 2013, 15:52:12

"Once the system reaches equilibrium"

What's your best estimate at this point as to when that will be and how much hotter the world will be than in pre-industrial times whenever that equilibrium is reached?
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