[westexas]

Fortune Magazine: The end of the suburbs
http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/08/real_estate/suburbs-end.pr.fortune/index.html
(Full article behind paywall)

When the United States suffered its epic housing bust, no part of the country felt the agony more than the suburbs. Of course, suburbia and its farthest reaches (known as exurbia) were where the most egregious homebuilding excesses took place. Once things fell apart, they became ground zero for foreclosures and short sales, leaving what some writers described, in near-apocalyptic terms, as "zombie subdivisions." In truth, the housing bust only accelerated a tectonic shift: The near-universal yearning for a spacious house in the suburbs -- a central element of the American dream -- is receding. So argues Leigh Gallagher, an assistant managing editor at Fortune, in a new book, The End of the Suburbs: Where the American Dream Is Moving. Gallagher uncovers this epochal shift and describes the many reasons behind it. She chronicles the growing distaste for long commutes and sprawling development that have sent families back to more urban areas; the demographic changes that have led to a dramatic decline in the number of suburban households with young children; and a litany of other shifts, including surprising reversals in suburban and urban housing, poverty, and crime. For every generation after World War II until now, population flowed from the city to the suburbs. Today, as this excerpt from Gallagher's book demonstrates, a tide that long seemed inexorable has begun to reverse.

At least in the Fortune article, there is no discussion of the severe impact that rising oil prices have had on suburbia--as the US, so far at least, is gradually being shut out of the global market for exported oil, as the developing countries, led by China, have so far consumed an increasing share of a post-2005 declining volume of Global Net Exports of oil.

For the outlook for suburbia, from an oil constrained point of view, here is a link to the “End of Suburbia” video from 2004:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug

[Plantagenet]

The suburbs have been replaced by small towns in rural areas.

IN the old days poor people and workers lived in the cities and professionals and managers lived in the suburbs and commuted into work. Manufacturing was done in clusters of urban factories, where steel and other parts were assembled and manufactured into finished industrial products.

With the downfall of US manufacturing and the rise of entrepeneurs and small businesses who rely on the internet, the action has shifted to nice small towns. There is no longer any need to commute into a city---retirees and small business owners are asking themselves why not live in a nice small town where crime is low and it is safe, commutes are short, housing is cheap, and business can still be conducted over high-speed internet connections.

fast-growing small towns in the USA

[Paulo1]

Regarding the mindset of suburban living, what do people do all day? I can see that living in a city would/could be vibrant, noisy, with many things to do. We live rural, and there is so much to do we can hardly keep up. It is not for everybody, but wonderful for us. I spent my family raising years in the suburbs. I was bored, and worked all the time to make it something it was not. Gardens, ponds, a pool, heated with wood, and chased around to get stuff to keep busy. Looking back I was going slowly crazy. Except for road hockey and skateboarding for the kids, it seems pretty artificial. Grim.

I think people are now open to alternatives and/or circumstances are forcing them to change where they live. With taxes and cummuting costs, plus chasing for activities, suburbia is a very expensive lifestyle. Just think of the toys parked in the driveways for most of the year. What a waste.

Paulo

[Lore]

The suburbs have been replaced by small towns in rural areas.

IN the old days poor people and workers lived in the cities and professionals and managers lived in the suburbs and commuted into work. Manufacturing was done in clusters of urban factories, where steel and other parts were assembled and manufactured into finished industrial products.

With the downfall of US manufacturing and the rise of entrepeneurs and small businesses who rely on the internet, the action has shifted to nice small towns. There is no longer any need to commute into a city---retirees and small business owners are asking themselves why not live in a nice small town where crime is low and it is safe, commutes are short, housing is cheap, and business can still be conducted over high-speed internet connections.

fast-growing small towns in the USA

Our small towns are gutted, those in the vast stretches of rural areas even more so. Distances are greater today then in the past for the basic necessities for these people. Technology, such as high speed broadband has yet to arrive for many of them.

[SeaGypsy]

Factory farm, mega scale has both fed the growth of cities and the death of country and village scale community life. The places not gutted out but near urban centers for commuting are expensive. Have to say you Amerikanos are blessed with far more realistic options for those who want to 'get a patch' of fertile land- extremely expensive down under by comparison.

[AgentR11]

Suburbs are what you make of them; and most are not the uncommutable disasters that are presented by the urban renewal folks. Yes there are excesses, especially in the PNW where exurban development is forced by geography and land use rules to follow long, strung out patterns. But most are relatively dense, single family homes 10-20 miles away from work, and as time has passed, a lot of work has moved out towards the suburbs, many of which you could just as well call "small town" and be done.

In our town, there is plenty of new residential construction going on. My take is that the small town environment really does offer everything that most folks are looking for in their "urban" wishing, but without the price tag. Primary transport does remain ICE powered vehicle, but *everything* is within 5 miles, and most stuff is within 2 miles. Heck, I walked to jury duty last time, and I'm on the fringe of our town. How it plays out in the future is anyone's guess, but distributed office space and telecommuting may well be on the table.

As for me, I get a distinctly repulsive "up-sell alert" that goes off in my head when I see people pitching new urban center homes and apartments... I think a certain segment of the population really enjoys that "up-sell" experience though, so whatever makes them happy...

[AgentR11]

nb... by small town, I mean populations of 25k-75k; not the essentially abandoned post-ag husks with a street and two antique stores on the highway...

[vision-master]

Just get a VW 2.0 TDI for commuting.

[kublikhan]

Regarding the mindset of suburban living, what do people do all day? I can see that living in a city would/could be vibrant, noisy, with many things to do. We live rural, and there is so much to do we can hardly keep up. It is not for everybody, but wonderful for us. I spent my family raising years in the suburbs. I was bored, and worked all the time to make it something it was not. Gardens, ponds, a pool, heated with wood, and chased around to get stuff to keep busy. Looking back I was going slowly crazy. Except for road hockey and skateboarding for the kids, it seems pretty artificial. Grim.

I think people are now open to alternatives and/or circumstances are forcing them to change where they live. With taxes and cummuting costs, plus chasing for activities, suburbia is a very expensive lifestyle. Just think of the toys parked in the driveways for most of the year. What a waste.

Not sure about where you lived, but there is plenty to do out here.
1. Woodfield Mall - one of the largest malls in the nation
2. Comedy clubs
3. Arlington International Racecourse - Horse racing
4. Medieval Times / Dave & Busters
5. Plenty for the kids(Gameworks, Legoland, lazer tag, whirlyball, etc)
6. Excellent park district with numerous programs and facilities for adults and kids alike(Swimming, tennis, gyms, cultural arts, etc)
7. Second largest public library in the state
8. Numerous restaurants and theaters
9. Numerous parks which often have live performances
10. Plenty of public transportation options(Metra, Pace, woodfield trolley, dial-a-ride, etc)
etc.

And it's less than an hour from Chicago. So if we get bored and want to check out the city it's no biggie. I live and work in the same town so I have a short commute. Property taxes are pretty low here. They are actually lowering taxes because of the good budget situation, the mall brings in lots of revenue. As opposed to the state of Illinois whose finances are a basket case.

Sure beats city living IMHO. I don't care for the crime, grime, traffic, etc. My father was mugged several times while working in the city. My wife was stalked in the city. Aside from the crime I don't care for the sheer density of it, so many people all smooshed together. But whatever makes you happy. If you prefer big city life or rural living, go for it!

[kublikhan]

Despite a short reprieve during the recession, the number of jobs moving to the nation's suburbs grew over the last decade. Jobs within 3 miles of a city center fell from 24.5% of overall positions in 2000 to 22.9% in 2010, according to a report released Thursday from the Brookings Institution. During the same time, jobs in the outer suburbs -- between 10 and 35 miles of a city's center -- grew from 40.9% in 2000 to 43.1% in 2010.

The recession halted the flight of jobs to the suburbs for a few years as industries like manufacturing, construction and retail -- businesses that thrive in a city's outer regions -- bore the largest brunt of layoffs. But by 2010, the suburbs accounted for nearly twice the share of jobs as city centers, continuing a trend that has been underway for decades. "Where the jobs are matters to the overall development of a region," said Elizabeth Kneebone, a fellow at Brookings' Metropolitan Policy Program. "It can impact long-term productivity."

Despite the much-hyped revitalization taking place in many city centers across the country, Kneebone said the jobs are not necessarily following the shift of residents toward downtown districts. In many places, these new urban dwellers end up reverse commuting to the suburbs for work.

America's jobs are moving to the suburbs

Sounds to me like the death of the suburbs has been greatly exaggerated.

[C8]

I think the decline of the suburbs has been greatly overplayed. Many writers of news articles are urban types who look down on suburbanites. In fact, if you look at the major municipal crisis areas, they are still cities: Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Newark, etc..

When the population of an area becomes too dominated by poor folks and minorities they tend to elect govt. office holders based on the candidates racial similarity to the population as the main criteria. This allows corruption to flourish as the mayors, city council people, etc. really don't have to worry about how bad they are- they are guaranteed a re-election due to their race and a thug campaign staff (if you don't believe this accusation see the film "Street Fight" about the ugly Newark campaign- both candidates were black but one wasn't "black enough".). Quite simply, cities are often settling into more of a 3rd world status with poor services, high crime, abandoned neighborhoods, and high poverty. Kunstler was totally wrong (again) about viewing the suburbs as having no future- its the cities that have a scary future.

[Pops]

I didn't see this one when I started another on a similar topic.

From 2010-'12 rural areas declined in population for the first time ever in part because non-urban building stopped.

And pretty obviously the slow pace in building and development of new 'burbs will continue to force more people into higher density housing, that, pretty well by definition happens in the city.

Add in that kids are less and less inclined to drive, again, a defining requirement for suburban living and I'd guess the future isn't necessarily rosey.

Oh and poverty is growing faster in the suburbs than anywhere else up 64% over the past decade.

There are now almost 16.4 million suburban residents living below the poverty line, nearly 3 million more than in the cities.

http://economy.money.cnn.com/2013/05/20 ... rty-soars/

[Ibon]

Looking back I was going slowly crazy. Except for road hockey and skateboarding for the kids, it seems pretty artificial. Grim.

This was pretty much my experience as well during those years before I sold out. Sanity in south florida suburbia was turning my yard into a tropical botanical garden while my neighbors yards looked like video games. Sanity was picking my neighbors fruit because they didn't want the messy mangoes, lychees, avocados, longans, jack fruits, guavas, oranges or more likely they actually didn't understand that they were edible.

Sanity was the occasional hurricanes that shut down the electricity for a couple of days and the hum of hundreds of air conditioner condensers went silent.

[vtsnowedin]

nb... by small town, I mean populations of 25k-75k; not the essentially abandoned post-ag husks with a street and two antique stores on the highway...

By that metric there exist only one "small town" in Vermont (Burlington , pop. 38,000) and the rest of the state is as you say post Ag. husks. My town doesn't even make the top 100 in Vermont. I suppose you could write off a whole state post peak but the remaining native Vermonters will have to be driven into the cities at gun point and god help the poor smuck that gets the job of doing that.
http://www.virtualvermont.com/towns/RankPopulation.html

[westexas]

Regarding the book I referenced above, the Book summary on Amazon does have a reference to oil prices:

http://www.amazon.com/The-End-Suburbs-A ... 1591845254

“The government in the past created one American Dream at the expense of almost all others: the dream of a house, a lawn, a picket fence, two children, and a car. But there is no single American Dream anymore.”

For nearly 70 years, the suburbs were as American as apple pie. As the middle class ballooned and single-family homes and cars became more affordable, we flocked to pre-fabricated communities in the suburbs, a place where open air and solitude offered a retreat from our dense, polluted cities. Before long, success became synonymous with a private home in a bedroom community complete with a yard, a two-car garage and a commute to the office, and subdivisions quickly blanketed our landscape.

But in recent years things have started to change. An epic housing crisis revealed existing problems with this unique pattern of development, while the steady pull of long-simmering economic, societal and demographic forces has culminated in a Perfect Storm that has led to a profound shift in the way we desire to live.

In The End of the Suburbs journalist Leigh Gallagher traces the rise and fall of American suburbia from the stately railroad suburbs that sprung up outside American cities in the 19th and early 20th centuries to current-day sprawling exurbs where residents spend as much as four hours each day commuting. Along the way she shows why suburbia was unsustainable from the start and explores the hundreds of new, alternative communities that are springing up around the country and promise to reshape our way of life for the better.

Not all suburbs are going to vanish, of course, but Gallagher’s research and reporting show the trends are undeniable. Consider some of the forces at work:

• The nuclear family is no more: Our marriage and birth rates are steadily declining, while the single-person households are on the rise. Thus, the good schools and family-friendly lifestyle the suburbs promised are increasingly unnecessary.

• We want out of our cars: As the price of oil continues to rise, the hours long commutes forced on us by sprawl have become unaffordable for many. Meanwhile, today’s younger generation has expressed a perplexing indifference toward cars and driving. Both shifts have fueled demand for denser, pedestrian-friendly communities.

• Cities are booming. Once abandoned by the wealthy, cities are experiencing a renaissance, especially among younger generations and families with young children. At the same time, suburbs across the country have had to confront never-before-seen rates of poverty and crime.

[TheAntiDoomer]

The end of suburbs has nothing to do with oil and everything to do with a reversal of white flight. Suburbs were created as white folk ran from the cities in the 60' to 80's. Today's generation is far more multicultural and pretty much hated their suburban ubringing. Thus the shift to suburbs back to cities would have happened with 2$ gas or 3.50$ gas, it's not really that big a difference.

[Ibon]

Thus the shift to suburbs back to cities would have happened with 2$ gas or 3.50$ gas, it's not really that big a difference.

Careful of that simplistic binary thinking. Consider a slightly more nuanced perspective that cultural shifts and the economic consequences of physical constraints coevolve.

When not carrying the baggage of holding up one end of a polarity you are free to expand your interpretations of events.

My daughters and their peers do not see the economic viability of paying back college loans, owning cars, insurance, fuel costs, home mortgages that suburbia requires. Besides the fact that for the reasons you pointed out suburbia offers them nothing in terms of their lifestyle choices.

[SeaGypsy]

My daughters and their peers do not see the economic viability of paying back college loans, owning cars, insurance, fuel costs, home mortgages that suburbia requires. Besides the fact that for the reasons you pointed out suburbia offers them nothing in terms of their lifestyle choices.

[/quote]

My girls are a generation behind yours Ibon, but share similar heritage- and my wife is a few years older than your daughters. I find that in our cross cultural and trans national experience we are open to many varieties of living options most people reading this will not have ever really considered.

In some ways places like the Philippines occasionally get something right. Through banning foreign ownership of land and the allowance for ad-hoc development to at least some extent, laissez faire business permits etc for rural Barangays, very low food miles, rural living is a much more vivid, alive and vibrant than anywhere comparable in the west. The flip side of which is 'Gates of Hell' Manila with 17 million people choking on their own pollution, drowning in excrement quite regularly. There really isn't suburbia in the way it exists in the USA or Australia. It's either the countryside with intense mostly hands on farming, high rural density, a busy village every few miles; or the concrete jungle. Then the conversion factor, when we look at what we would spend in Australia to buy any property at all compared to the options in Asia for the same. It's not hard to decide to only rent or workshare for accommodation when we are in Aus.

Suburbia here is becoming enclaved slowly into ethnic and socio- economic communities within the greater context of the cities. Older people retire to either the coastal areas or tiny units in the city. Young, 'with it' mainstreamers want to be as close as possible to the action of the centers, mostly because that's where the job opportunities are.

[AgentR11]

I suppose you could write off a whole state post peak but the remaining native Vermonters will have to be driven into the cities at gun point and god help the poor smuck that gets the job of doing that.

No reason to truck them anywhere, Vermont is so small that all residents are within bicycling distance of such a small town.

[vtsnowedin]

I suppose you could write off a whole state post peak but the remaining native Vermonters will have to be driven into the cities at gun point and god help the poor smuck that gets the job of doing that.

No reason to truck them anywhere, Vermont is so small that all residents are within bicycling distance of such a small town.

Who said anything about a truck? People being driven from their homes usually leave on foot. When the suburbs die there will be no gas to run a truck anyway.