Not to derail the discussion, but where is this looming oil flood? I can't see it welling up anywhere. The 7% drop in US oil production in the last year is rather significant. The US was the only oil producer globally that prevented a global production decline over the last few years.
rockdoc123 wrote:At that point prices will rise and once they reach a level that is high enough for a long enough period the shale producers will return to drilling. That oil did not dissappear
The thing is, once you push the day of reckoning for oil supply far enough ahead, the world is going to be a different place, due to EVs and self-driving cars. A world in an oil-crisis in 2005 (when TOD said it would) and 2025 with a lithium economy and tons of affordable 200+ mile EVs and inexpensive ridesharing to get around is a different ballgame
.it should be how to we make a combination of solar, wind, hydro, nuclear work to offset declines in hydrocarbon resources. It's not rocket science, the problem is no one wants to accept this is the only way forward.
inexpensive ridesharing
the Lithium Economy
ennui2 wrote:POD isn't too complex to discuss. It's just erroneous.
spike wrote:Some interesting comments. Pstarr, few were predicting shale oil would matter that far back. You don't seem very informed.
spike wrote:The coming oil flood? If you look carefully, shale oil is starting to stabilize and I think will begin to recover soon. But there's lots of other oil out there that will be hitting the market, as my book explains. Aside from presalt, there's Mexico, Iran, Iraq and probably Libya to add substantial volumes in the next few years. (North Sea is up a little but don't expect too much there.) Russia just set a new record, despite years of peak oilers saying production was unsustainable and it looks like much-delayed Kashagan will come online soon. ML
spike wrote:Adam, I have been talking to DOE people off and on. A chapter in my book describes the equations in a supply model. However, the big uncertainty is access. How do you predict fiscal terms and acreage availability for countries from Argentina to Yemen for 20 years?
radon1 wrote:POD is about depletion, and it is much more focused than an "economics" talk. In addition, it incorporates geology etc., i.e. the things outside the realm of "economics". "Economics" are a only slightly better than etp anyway.
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