by GHung » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 10:50:57
I expect economies and societies will find their MOL (minimum operating level) regarding petroleum at some point. They'll have to abandon discretionary uses for those that are considered essential like food production and transportation of more critical goods. The value discovery of oil will be forced and brutally honest. Folks may learn that a little goes a long way when the only alternative is to do things like grow their own food, go without their meds, etc.. Of course, the price of oil will be built into whatever critical goods they decide they must have, rather than into manufactured demand for things they don't need. Every fuel price spike has been, and will be, a dress-rehearsal for what is becoming a more permanent relationship to petroleum. The trick will be preventing markets from holding critical needs hostage to oil, and discovering (accepting) what those critical needs really are..
Whether or not economies can survive the overall decline in net energy remains to be seen. Some are already there, some are in the process, and some are fighting it tooth-and-nail. Those who win the race to the bottom may, indeed, come out the better for it. So-called 'developed' economies may be screwed; so much of their 'productivity' is based on non-critical goods and services, transportation systems are incompatible with anything other than oil, and their growth-based economies have little chance of surviving energy contraction intact. They'll either pay the bill or go broke trying. This process has been underway for some time now. Seems we haven't learned our lesson yet.
Will the energy-meek inherit the earth? That assumes there will be much left to inherit, but those who can get the energy/consumption monkey off their backs now will have an advantage. Oil consumption for me peaked a while back, though I'm still working that problem. Better to put those petro-dollars to work on other things. The money we've saved over the last ten years by significantly cutting our driving more than paid for the last batch of solar panels, our new solar water heater, and then some. It's still oil use, but at least that oil didn't just go POOF; it's embedded in things that will last, and we'll get much of that energy back in other forms.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person