[vtsnowedin]

The oil price is partly driven by speculators. A Trump win would set them all a tizzy thinking he will blunder into WW3.
Him winning will certainly not calm world markets.

[PeakOiler]

Looking at http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html, a price of around $47.86 was reached today. Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/energy reported $47.89 at 4:59pm. Plugging the numbers into the "What If" page of the workbook for a new high and closing price and resorting shows Pops has taken first place. (I moved up to #4. )

We'll see the "official" numbers from EIA this Wednesday, so stay tuned.

[davep]

This is probably the most hotly contested of all the various Oil Price Challenges we've had over the years. Generally it was just a question of forlornly watching SeaGypsy win again

[AgentR11]

Yeah, I think I'm going to end up missing the high substantially; I figured the low price would bankrupt a bunch of our shale and deep water; but I didn't expect it to brutalize the other national'ish producers like Venezuela, Nigeria, etc so quickly. Saudis and Ruskies have improved their market share a bit, but no where near as much as I think they wanted too. At $50, I don't think we lose any more producers, though there won't be much excitement about drilling new stuff at $50..

[EdwinSm]

If oil continues to rise, and rises above $50 then I should start dropping in table.

Usually, my guesses are way out so I was sort of worried that I have been in 3rd place for so long.

[PeakOiler]

I think AgentR11 and EdwinSm have done fantastic this year in this game for first time players.

This is a challenging game after all.

I'll post a new scorecard later today after I download the EIA's report and put in the official numbers. The EIA releases the report at 1:00 pm eastern time (US).

[PeakOiler]

Here's the scorecard:



Now IF the high price gets to $51.98, the close to $51.14, and the average is $36.90, I'll take first place!

[PeakOiler]

This week's scorecard shows salinski moving into second place after another new high price for the year was reported:

[davep]

We may be hitting 50 today.

[vtsnowedin]

For the sake of everyone's bank accounts (Rock doc excepted) I hope I stay down in the bottom of the rankings.

[PeakOiler]

My thoughts when I made my guesses was the price would increase in 2016, but to be honest, I didn't expect prices to get this high so soon in the year. I thought we wouldn't get to these levels until Nov-Dec. I kept hearing about the glut and how long it will last and keep downward pressure on prices throughout the year, and forecasts of oil going to 15-20/barrel, which I didn't necessarily believe (as reflected in my low guess.)

I think my average price guess is going to be too low by the end of the year. Perhaps my high price guess too.

[salinsky]

The following were among my goals and hopes for this year: To place in the top three in the 2016 Oil Price Challenge; to record two or more songs and have them played on the radio in at least two states in North America and one foreign country excluding Mexico and Canada; to hear a favorable finding from the Federal Appeals Court; to tour Europe before it is destroyed by the ...

Would like to see ROCKMAN put his guesses from now 'til year's end.

[PeakOiler]

The following were among my goals and hopes for this year: To place in the top three in the 2016 Oil Price Challenge; to record two or more songs and have them played on the radio in at least two states in North America and one foreign country excluding Mexico and Canada; to hear a favorable finding from the Federal Appeals Court; to tour Europe before it is destroyed by the ...

Would like to see ROCKMAN put his guesses from now 'til year's end.

Good luck with those goals! What musical instrument(s) do you play (including voice)?
Federal Appeals Court?

Actually, I wouldn't mind seeing oil go down a bit some (for about 5 months), then a little higher (than now) by the end of the year. We'll see...

[Subjectivist]

Looks like we briefly hit $50.20 today which might have triggered some kind of sell pre program in the trading computers. In under two hours the price fell a dollar and then recovered a little before ending at $49.33 for the day.

[PeakOiler]

Looks like we briefly hit $50.20 today which might have triggered some kind of sell pre program in the trading computers. In under two hours the price fell a dollar and then recovered a little before ending at $49.33 for the day.

Yes, I saw that at http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html, but remember, only closing prices are reported by the EIA, not intraday prices for our game. Stay tuned for next week's scorecard...

[vtsnowedin]

Well if you are a speculator and bought say a million bucks worth in April at $38 / barrel and sold it today for $49.50 you have done pretty well even after the storage fees etc.

[PeakOiler]

The latest scorecard:

[PeakOiler]

We'll know tomorrow if salinsky takes 1st place and Pops second and me third. IF WTI is reported above ~$50.05.
Bloomberg and cx-portal are both showing above $50 at this time, but we'll have to wait and see what the EIA reports...

[PeakOiler]

Well I forgot that the EIA's report today only goes to June 6th, but Pops lead is thin. Next week's report should show oil over $50. It's over $51 today so far.