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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 02 Mar 2016, 17:54:46

PeakOiler wrote:No significant changes in the scorecard. Revi and I switched places. :twisted:

Want to make another bet this year, Revi? LOL (I don't need any more maple syrup. I still have the last bottle of syrup frozen.)


Out of curiosity, what is the date for the $36.81 high price mark? Looking at the year chart on CNBC I figure it was January 4, 2016, but am I correct?
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 03 Mar 2016, 07:44:02

Tanada wrote:Out of curiosity, what is the date for the $36.81 high price mark? Looking at the year chart on CNBC I figure it was January 4, 2016, but am I correct?


That's correct. Jan. 4th was the day when it was the highest. The bottom (so far) was on January 20th.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 03 Mar 2016, 12:02:08

Well there I am down near the bottom of the list, Again. I need the price to rise to move up but as I was pumping gas today at $1.759/ US gallon it occurred to me that it would be just fine if I stay on the bottom of this contest all year. :)
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Fri 04 Mar 2016, 14:22:09

Since it's been a weird season so far I'm not betting any maple syrup since we don't have any yet! I am hanging in there at #7, which is pretty good for me!
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Fri 04 Mar 2016, 17:50:13

Contest deadline was like two months ago. But I do like the humor in your prediction.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 Mar 2016, 18:10:09

Speaking of deadlines, today set a new high for 2016.

36.31 USD
Last | 4:57:00 PM EST

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 04 Mar 2016, 18:28:29

Tanada wrote:Speaking of deadlines, today set a new high for 2016.

36.31 USD
Last | 4:57:00 PM EST

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1


Well CNBC says $35.18 was the previous high close for the year, but the game chart says it was $36.81, and that's the one my name has bottom place in ;) :twisted:

All I need is for this up a couple dollars a week every week for the rest of the year. Heck maybe the Mosul Dam really will break next month and destroy Iraqi and Kuwait export terminals for months of repairs.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 05 Mar 2016, 10:13:53

Tanada wrote:Speaking of deadlines, today set a new high for 2016.

36.31 USD
Last | 4:57:00 PM EST

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1


We do not consider intraday high prices, just the price given by the official reference: the EIA. (See rule #2.) Go to http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm and download the Excel spreadsheet. Official data is currently only through February 29th:

Jan 04, 2016 36.81
Jan 05, 2016 35.97
Jan 06, 2016 33.97
Jan 07, 2016 33.29
Jan 08, 2016 33.2
Jan 11, 2016 31.42
Jan 12, 2016 30.42
Jan 13, 2016 30.42
Jan 14, 2016 31.22
Jan 15, 2016 29.45
Jan 19, 2016 28.47
Jan 20, 2016 26.68
Jan 21, 2016 29.55
Jan 22, 2016 32.07
Jan 25, 2016 30.31
Jan 26, 2016 29.54
Jan 27, 2016 32.32
Jan 28, 2016 33.21
Jan 29, 2016 33.66
Feb 01, 2016 31.62
Feb 02, 2016 29.9
Feb 03, 2016 32.29
Feb 04, 2016 31.63
Feb 05, 2016 30.86
Feb 08, 2016 29.71
Feb 09, 2016 27.96
Feb 10, 2016 27.54
Feb 11, 2016 26.19
Feb 12, 2016 29.32
Feb 16, 2016 29.05
Feb 17, 2016 30.68
Feb 18, 2016 30.77
Feb 19, 2016 29.59
Feb 22, 2016 31.37
Feb 23, 2016 31.84
Feb 24, 2016 30.35
Feb 25, 2016 31.4
Feb 26, 2016 31.65
Feb 29, 2016 32.74
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 05 Mar 2016, 10:43:07

Presumably official data comes out weekly for this? Some of their data sets update weekly, some monthly and some quarterly, at least that is what seems to happen in my experience. Its all academic to me as I am not actually guessing this year.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 10 Mar 2016, 06:09:32

Yes Tanada, the oil price data are updated weekly. The EIA does not report data for weekends or holidays either. At the bottom of the EIA website (linked above and the url shown in each scorecard) in the fine print, the EIA gives the next release date:
Image

A new high price was reported for March 7th:

Image

CNN reports the monthly change as 25.9% as of yesterday. See http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby obixman » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 12:32:31

Well - have just been offered and accepted a package from my company; so after April 30th this all becomes academic for me.

So this will be the last year I'll play.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 13:32:54

obixman wrote:Well - have just been offered and accepted a package from my company; so after April 30th this all becomes academic for me.

So this will be the last year I'll play.

You not interested in just having a guess like some of us do?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 23 Mar 2016, 16:37:04

Hmmm. Obixman: What does getting a package offer from your company have to do with playing this game? Curious.

Another high price of the year was reported today and there were a few changes in the standings. Here is the scorecard:

Image

Pops takes second place! Where is Pops, btw? I haven't seen any posts by him recently.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 23 Mar 2016, 21:11:11

Woo Hoo! Still holding firm in last place!
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Wed 23 Mar 2016, 22:28:38

Subjectivist wrote:Woo Hoo! Still holding firm in last place!


All we need is an "Arab Spring" in Saudi Arabia this summer and we will be vying for first place. :)
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 30 Mar 2016, 17:33:43

Although a new high price was given by the EIA in todays report ($41.45 on March 22nd), there was no change in the standings.

AgentR11 is wondering why he didn't play this game before. It must seem easy for him! :lol:
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby obixman » Fri 01 Apr 2016, 10:48:20

Well after the 30th I lose all contact to inside information. It would be a true guess, and - given my current position - I can only picture doing worse.

True I guess we do need someone to hold last place.... maybe I will play next year.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 07 Apr 2016, 08:47:21

I found an error in the scorecard today. The low price was incorrectly given since the February 22nd scorecard was posted. Apologies. It wasn't off by much so there wasn't any big differences in the rankings.

Here is the new scorecard:

Image
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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