ROCKMAN wrote:"...the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data." Well the Rockman has no problem laughing at such statements.
Sure, but Rockman is one of those guys who needs to see things to believe them. The CEO of pioneer himself had some interesting things to say about Permian acreage a few years back, and I doubt that oil has gone anywhere.
And are you familiar with Rustadts work? They slide back and forth between reserves and resources rather easily, and we all know the difference between those. Well, some of us do.
The EIA has also focused heavily on the Permian, and the potential there.
Surely Rockman has heard of the potential in the Permian, in particularly RESOURCES, right? The first green field development of this resource was beginning back in early 2015.
http://www.uwyo.edu/eori/technology-tra ... 20pres.pdfI could argue for 60 billion barrels of SOMETHING recoverable just from this (see slide 5).
http://www.co2conference.net/wp-content ... 2-8-15.pdfCombined with the very idea of how economically recoverable, technically recoverable, and in-place works, which we know that the EIA is very familiar with:
https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf60 billion isn't even that much of a stretch.
Rockman wrote: Particularly since there is no DOCUMENTED proof that those numbers or even close to the reality.
Depends on how they got them. The shale revolution itself proves the existence of economically recoverable, the only remaining question using the EIA terminology is what is the in-place amount, and what will future technological and economic changes allow to be developed. I'm betting that the in-place of the unconventionals in the US exceeds 60 billion, so we are talking about economic recoverable versus technical. Technical is easy, it is ALL technically recoverable, so we arrive once more at price.
How much to drill, complete and produce versus the discounted value of the revenue stream.
I never would have believed $10/mcf gas in my lifetime, but it has already come and gone. What do breakeven economics of a 4 BCF Marcellus well look like at $10/mcf? Even Mr Rockman might want a piece of that, if cost to surface is only $0.50/mcf.
Today's technically recoverable, tomorrow's recovered.
Your industry was doing it before you were born Rock, doing it throughout your career, you figure all you'ns are gonn FORGET HOW all of a sudden?
We, and Pers, are counting on your Rock!
Rockman wrote:Show the proof and the Rockman is very well qualified to analyze the data. More so then almost anyone here. And even more important: the Rockman wouldn't be bothered at all if his analysis confirmed their numbers...he doesn't have a dog in the fight. IOW the Rockman doesn't really give a sh*t how much oil is or isn't left to produce in the world.
You've never heard of the ROZ in the Permian? You've never heard of the kind of resource analysis and quantification that the EIA and USGS do? And Pers? And ICF? ARI? IHS? Really?
No dog in the fight? Are you saying you don't want to claim SOME of the credit for the US becoming the world's largest natural producer, and for having repeaked the US in oil production 40 years after the last one? Come on Rock, grab some credit, you are INDUSTRY!!! If there is a landowner to be screwed over, or a working interest partner to be hosed, you would be right there, smiling over having gotten it over someone! It is what industry does!
Rockman wrote:All he cares about is how much his wells produce. LOL.
And Pers cares about your wells, and everyone elses. His perspective is quite a bit more broad in scope than yours, but that is alright. You just keep doing your job, and Pers will keep watching and keeping score!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"