[AdamB]

So?

Thanksgiving Day, 2005.

It's consequences on price were so horrifying that I am left...ALMOST...speechless. But a single graphic might suffice.

[Plantagenet]

Twilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.


Its coming


The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is coming

[AdamB]

Folks expecting a heads up, a moment of truth and a big headline will be sorely disappointed. Nothing dramatic or singular will announce the end.

I'll take Matt Savinar's take on what peak oil was supposed to do, rather than your more revisionist perspective. After all, we can all now see in hindsight the horrors of lower crude prices, so much natural gas in the north eastern US that we can switch coal fired electricity over to the cheaper, cleaner and possibly more abundant fuel.

You see, it is only the revisionists who forget that peak oil was supposed to be the end. Prophets of Peak like Ruppert and Savinar told us this, so it must be true, beat cops and unemployed ambulance chasers having been accepted as experts on geology and reserves and whatnot.

All those scientists declaring it so....funny thing....you don't see them around making You Tube vidoes about it anymore...huh...

[AdamB]

Twilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.

A true as statement now as it was 15 years ago when people began saying it.

http://www.sustainablecitynews.com/ghawar-html/

The good news is, that within about 3 or 4 years in the US, we built another Ghawar in the US. With Ghawar dying 15 years ago, it was obviously just in the nick of time!

[vtsnowedin]

Twilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.

(. . . pointless image deleted. . . )

Its coming

(. . . another pointless image deleted. . . )

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is coming

How do you know that Ghawar (corrected for spelling) has not collapsed already? And why would that signal something special? And why would Saudi Arabia bother to tell you? Have an inside position? Thought so

It does not matter which oil field KSA pumps it from as long as they keep pumping and selling it. Of course their stated reserves may be total fiction but their actions are not those of someone who is down to the last barrel.
But let us look at a more reliable source. In Exxon's last annual report they stated that they had 90 billion barrels of reserves under current rules. That is about a seven year supply for the USA if Exxon was pressed to provide all our needs.
Considering that Exxon is just one player (admittedly a big one) in the worlds oil supply market I don't expect the peak oil Pearl Harbor to be any time soon.

[Plantagenet]

It does not matter which oil field KSA pumps it from as long as they keep pumping and selling it.

Saudi Arabia doesn't have another field that can replace the 6 million bbls/day its getting from Ghawar after Ghawar peaks and goes into rapid decline.

Of course their stated reserves may be total fiction but their actions are not those of someone who is down to the last barrel.

Like many dictatorships, its not clear that the people at the top in Saudi Arabia are getting accurate information from the technical people down below. Who wants to be the one to give the King the bad news that oil production from Ghawar is about to go into a steep decline?

In Exxon's last annual report they stated that they had 90 billion barrels of reserves under current rules. That is about a seven year supply for the USA if Exxon was pressed to provide all our needs.
Considering that Exxon is just one player (admittedly a big one) in the worlds oil supply market I don't expect the peak oil Pearl Harbor to be any time soon.

Peak Oil isn't about the size of oil reserves. Its about the production rate. Yes, its true that Exxon has 90 billion bbls in reserve and there are 70 billion bbls in the Permian tight shales in West Texas and the Canadian tar sands hold 100 billion barrels and Venezuela has 100+ billion bbls in their tar sands. What isn't clear is whether or not all the huge reserves of unconventional oil from the Permian Basin and the tar sands etc. can be produced at a high enough rate and low enough cost to replace cheap conventional oil as Ghawar and other giant conventional oil fields peak and then decline over the next 1-20 years.

Cheers!


The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

[Outcast_Searcher]

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

2). If it happens soon, it's a good thing we have a big glut and technology is making things like cars more efficient (much more over time). That will greatly help ameliorate the impact.

3). If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

....

So would it be inconvenient? Sure. Would it mean "doom"? It sure doesn't seem like anything close to that. (Note: Inconvenience or even less driving is NOT doom).

[Plantagenet]

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

When I look at a chart like this, I don't believe any of the predictions either.

So lets just assume every single individual prediction is wrong---some are too early and some are too late. However, if you average them altogether then you've got something that represents really a lot of work by a lot of different people mostly working independently. Taking this approach the average estimate for the timing of peak oil, based on the whole spread of estimates is about 2030 +/- 25 years.

This is the method the IPCC uses to estimate future global warming---the IPCC averages ALL GCM predections together. Its a reasonable approach to evaluating this dogs breakfast of different predictions and estimates, as long as you include the "error bars" in the averaged prediction number.

If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

....

So would it be inconvenient? Sure. Would it mean "doom"? It sure doesn't seem like anything close to that. (Note: Inconvenience or even less driving is NOT doom).

Peak Oil and Doom are not the same thing. And Pearl Harbor, as bad as it was, was a long way from being doom ----.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

Twilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.

(. . . pointless image deleted. . . )

Its coming

(. . . another pointless image deleted. . . )

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is coming

How do you know that Ghawar (corrected for spelling) has not collapsed already? And why would that signal something special? And why would Saudi Arabia bother to tell you? Have an inside position? Thought so

It does not matter which oil field KSA pumps it from as long as they keep pumping and selling it. Of course their stated reserves may be total fiction but their actions are not those of someone who is down to the last barrel.

And you know how? Are you an insider like PlantedAgent?

But let us look at a more reliable source. In Exxon's last annual report they stated that they had 90 billion barrels of reserves under current rules. That is about a seven year supply for the USA if Exxon was pressed to provide all our needs.
Considering that Exxon is just one player (admittedly a big one) in the worlds oil supply market I don't expect the peak oil Pearl Harbor to be any time soon.

Exxon. reliable? Then why has the CEO jumped ship to take a bureaucrats salary? Hint: job security.

Well Duh! Pstarr. Rex has worked for Exxon from right out of engineering college forty years ago.He was set to retire next year anyway. So he pulls a gig of three to six years as Secretary of State like the Eagle scout he was and is.
He doesn't need job security, and he already has enough fame and fortune.
SOC will be a hell of a pay cut for him so I am surprised he is willing to do it at all.

[AdamB]

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

Boy isn't that the truth. Under the sine wave theory of oil production rates, we need to focus on the total number of peaks and the frequency of them, in that scheme, our kids could be talking about the same things.

2). If it happens soon, it's a good thing we have a big glut and technology is making things like cars more efficient (much more over time). That will greatly help ameliorate the impact.

We are still in the impact from the 2005 peak oil, according to some. And consumers are loving it! And they are't buying more efficient cars, if truck and SUV sales are the measure.

3). If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

EV miles are much more attractive now. When the wife can commute to work for 6 months without using more than a couple gallons of gasoline, our family notices it in our monthly budget already.

[ralfy]

1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

2). If it happens soon, it's a good thing we have a big glut and technology is making things like cars more efficient (much more over time). That will greatly help ameliorate the impact.

3). If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

....

So would it be inconvenient? Sure. Would it mean "doom"? It sure doesn't seem like anything close to that. (Note: Inconvenience or even less driving is NOT doom).

In a global capitalist system, efficiency leads to more consumption rather than less. That's because businesses invest in technology because it will earn them more money, which means they need to sell goods at lower cost. But they are also in competition with each other, which means they want to generate more sales.

Also, the same system involves more than just driving and related activities.

[ROCKMAN]

ralfy - "...which means they need to sell goods at lower cost. But they are also in competition with each other, which means they want to generate more sales." Which leads me to repeat what I've posted else that relates to why lower oil prices have lead to an increase in global production:

"Some folks keep talking about "poor" ole OPEC is these days. But the data is clear and simple: from the day OPEC produced its first bbl of oil until 2007 it has never received as much revenue (adjusted for inflation, of course) as it is pulling in today."

The KSA increase in production had nothing to do with shutting down the US shale players. It was a response to lower oil prices and the need for more revenue.

[Zarquon]

You've seen J6P respond to energy shock events in the past. You ever been impressed? LOL. And then once the shock had past seen him continuing to focus on the problem? Doubly unimpressed, eh? LOL. Many of our problems are rooted in human nature. Figure out how to geneticly modify it and we might have a chance.

But I do like the Pear Harbor anology much more the "collapse", "Armageddon ", etc. Much easier to visualize those dynamics at play.

Maybe it's just splitting hairs, but to the Japanese the US oil embargo in August '41 was the actual declaration of war.

Anyway, after '73 Joe Sixpack suddenly bought Hondas. Rice bowls! Unbelievable!

And even before that, in the 1960s, the first independent self-service gas stations popped up in the US. Of course no full-blooded American would ever leave his car and touch the greasy pump himself, just to save a few lousy pennies, when a uniformed negro could do it for him. Except that they did, and in masses. The horror! The independent chains boomed (well, at least until the "scarcity" in the 70s allowed Big Oil to withhold gasoline suppplies and ruin them).

Whatever the reason, things changed and J6P adapted (until a senile B-movie actor Made America Great Again etc. etc.). But maybe it was possible because in the 60s and 70s, people remembered worse days and didn't take prosperity for granted.

[Zarquon]

Well Duh! Pstarr. Rex has worked for Exxon from right out of engineering college forty years ago.He was set to retire next year anyway. So he pulls a gig of three to six years as Secretary of State like the Eagle scout he was and is.

Or maybe he'll do pretty much the same job he did before, just from behind a different desk. Cutting out the middle man makes things so much simpler.

[Zarquon]

1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

If I played Russian Roulette and the gun went "click" three times already... I might start thinking. And remember that the gun is loaded.