[ROCKMAN]

"America pisses me right off to start with ..." To digress a bit no country can piss anyone off. A particular American might piss you off or a group of Americans, like our Congress, can piss you off. Some of the policies of a country might piss you off. But “America" can't piss you off. There are countless folks in this country that feel as you do and many even stronger. Do they piss you off because they live in this country even though they agree with your position.

Trust me: I'm all for getting in someone's face if they piss me off. But I'm not going to jump on my barber's ass because the checkout lady at the grocery pissed me off. Collateral damage is always unfortunate. Especially when it was completely unnecessary.

[AgentR11]

Price of a primary export falls from 100'ish to 60'ish. Its a large export, and a fairly small economy; thus, its impact is exaggerated as far as book reporting, thus we do in fact have a "depression" by western economic model definitions.

Does such a "depression" place Putin in any significant stress: No.
Does such a "depression" have any significance with regard to Russian defense plans: No.
Does such a "depression" place infrastructure repair of Crimea in jeopardy: No.
Does such a "depression" place anyone in Russia at greater risk of hunger or privation: No.

Does such a "depression" place Western market share for chocolate bars and bmw's in jeopardy: Yes.
Does such a "depression" place wine and spirit market share in jeopardy: Yes.
Does such a "depression" cause Russian vacationers to travel domestically instead of to EU: Yes.

Our media is determined to make us believe Russia is about to implode. They have been determined to convince of this for over a year. I promise you, no matter how convinced we become about Russia's imminent implosion; it ain't happening.

The reality is simple. Russia grows more food that it consumes. It produces more oil and gas than it consumes. It has domestic manufacturers for all heavy industries, and trade with China for the same stuff we trade with China for. Russia's ruble was, FOR YEARS, artificially pumped up in value in order to subsidize the import of luxury nick nacks from the West. When that support was cut (more rapidly than originally planned), the value of the ruble moved to where it belonged, Western imports became instantly uncompetitive, overpriced, and a poor value.

Unfortunately, such an event produces a discontinuity. Yet we continue to measure price and production changes before and after as if nothing all that interesting happened. Russia's economy today is a completely different critter than it was two years ago. Thats a bad thing if you were a German guy making stuff to sell in Moscow; as you can no longer compete on price. But it also means that something that cost 100 rubles a couple years ago, probably costs 150 rubles today.

My assertion is that we have to think of Russia pre-float, as an economy that died, and ceased to exist in Dec 2014. A new, different, economy came into existence in January; no less significant than when the USSR collapsed; with the only difference being that Russia owns more than it owes, and its current grain production far exceeds its domestic need. Thus, no starving Russians begging for mercy from a West that wants to shred them into pieces and divy up the spoils to oligarchs loyal to NY/London.

Eventually, our press guys are going to get creeped out by their narative, "Russia is the enemy, Russia is in dire straits, Putin is doomed, Putin is the devil." Run that line 10-20 years while nothing interesting happens to Russia, it'll wear thin.

[radon1]

BTW, some genius posted BS on the front page about Russian inflation going out of control:

#@!$ @#$%@!^

Inflation is not 17%, it is 15%, how nice.

Base housing bill, without variables such as electricity and water, has doubled since last summer. Doubled.

They are busy inventing new levies and charges, to tax your very existence, not some taxable objects. Meanwhile, puti-clowns are busy crashing freshly renovated pavements in order to renovate them again and "write off" as much money as they can from the city budget, their usual staff.

Every city dweller sees it and knows it. But of course, this is all western MSM propaganda.

Oh, by the way on the positive side, RT had a 40% budget hike this year. More and more MSM propaganda to be exposed.

[AgentR11]

radon1, try to think objectively on some of these things. Any large move in numbers like that is almost certainly related to pulling of government support / subsidy; type action. Folks in Kiev-UA are feeling it the most of course; they have a hard deadline where those things MUST be gone, regardless of who suffers or who dies as a result.

You guys have been living in a seriously distorted economy for a long time; with the government using the "bread and circus" routine to keep everyone more or less grumbling along.

When an economist says 15% inflation; its not just about end user rent; it captures subsidies and all that mess. If the housing bill goes from 1000 to 1150 total; that could easily be the resident going from 500 to 1000 and the government going from 500 to 150. The cost of the residence changed 15%; but WHO PAID changed much more than that.

From a macro pov, "who paid" isn't all that relevant.

That said, ten years from now, I think most Russians are going to end up pleased with the result. Sucking a finite supply of oil out of the ground and trading it for all your modern conveniences is a dead end that can trap a nation for centuries.

As to redoing existing, serviceable pavement... well.......... welcome to the modern world. When you have private contractors and government dependent upon them for infrastructure the government ends up spending on projects just to keep their favorite contractors afloat; can even go so far as define the specs such that only one contractor has any hope of offering a competitive bid. Its a great game! you'll get used to paying for it soon enough.

[dissident]

BTW, some genius posted BS on the front page about Russian inflation going out of control:

#@!$ @#$%@!^

Inflation is not 17%, it is 15%, how nice.

Base housing bill, without variables such as electricity and water, has doubled since last summer. Doubled.

They are busy inventing new levies and charges, to tax your very existence, not some taxable objects. Meanwhile, puti-clowns are busy crashing freshly renovated pavements in order to renovate them again and "write off" as much money as they can from the city budget, their usual staff.

Every city dweller sees it and knows it. But of course, this is all western MSM propaganda.

Oh, by the way on the positive side, RT had a 40% budget hike this year. More and more MSM propaganda to be exposed.

Dude, get a grip and do some research before spouting off your liberast tropes.

The 15% is falling every month and will be around 10% by the end of 2015. In March the CPI was 36%. It is annualized data. Considering the nearly 50% ruble devaluation I would say that a jump in the inflation from 7% to 10% is amazing. It totally destroys all the tropes you repeat about how weak the Russian economy is and how the ruble is a "wooden" currency. Pack your bags and depart for your liberast promised land in some NATO paradise state instead of whinging endlessly about how bad you have it.

BTW, expert on how good it is in the west, I am seeing food price increases around 10% here in Canada for a few years now. Of course in the CPI food has about a 0.13 weighting, but spare me BS about how bad it is in Russia. You are not paying 40% more for food every year. In fact, your food price inflation is similar to that in Canada.

[dissident]

Price of a primary export falls from 100'ish to 60'ish. Its a large export, and a fairly small economy; thus, its impact is exaggerated as far as book reporting, thus we do in fact have a "depression" by western economic model definitions.

That's just nonsense. We have the actual metric of depressions and it is the % GDP decline. If Russia was a one-commodity banana republic it's GDP would be dependent on it for much more than 13%. As of 2013 Russia's GDP depended on oil and gas and all the associated economic activity to the level of 13%. Not 90% as one would infer from the BS yammering from Obama and MSM hacks. But even though oil went down from $100 to $50 we have not seen a decline in Russia's GDP by 6.5%. It is down about 2%. That shows that the oil price sensitive component of Russia's GDP fraction associated with oil and gas industry is much less than 13%. The ruble devaluation has also acted to cancel out the oil price drop since Russia's domestic prices and currency are in rubles and not dollars. And I am ignoring the effect of the sanctions, which on reflection likely account for most of the current GDP drop and not the oil price.

I don't see much evidence of any understanding of the actual situation when it comes to Russia and oil prices. I see lots of fantasy and projection.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Demand for gas is plummeting in Europe, according to the article. Really? Do we not need gas any more? What are the mechanics of this supposed sudden fall?

Extremely warm winters in the last few years. The last two winters my heating bill was a third of what it used to be.

Your supporting data shows warming temperatures at about ONE degree celsius higher than previously.

So HOW, is this "extremely" warm winters for all of Europe, or even a large section of it? And how are we to take your anecdotal claim of using only a third of the heat source you used to over the past two years seriously?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Some politeness and less juvenile 'LOL'ing wouldn't go amiss either.

That sort of thing is part of what makes you hated worldwide. You come across as delusional, arrogant, and obnoxious.

Look at this stupid fucking chart you posted from the Telegraph.

...

Can you even read it at that size? What the fuck is it supposed to mean?

At the risk of pointing out the obvious:

You come off as less than mature when you first complain about a poster being "juvenile", and then dropping the f-bomb a couple of times in quick succession. Also, calling people names has no part in reasonable debate for those of us over, say, 7 years old.

(I often disagree with Pops on some issues. We manage to discuss it and disagree without acting like small children. In fact, we manage to show each other some respect, even as we disagree. (That's a good thing about America, BTW -- free speech (in most conditions)).

Maybe it's just me -- but when I observe such behavior it generally makes me think that people are covering a weak argument with bluster. (It reminds me of demonstrators booing anyone who tries to express a different point of view. Yeah. Booing. Now THAT's a strong argument. )

[Withnail]

Demand for gas is plummeting in Europe, according to the article. Really? Do we not need gas any more? What are the mechanics of this supposed sudden fall?

Extremely warm winters in the last few years. The last two winters my heating bill was a third of what it used to be.

Your supporting data shows warming temperatures at about ONE degree celsius higher than previously.

So HOW, is this "extremely" warm winters for all of Europe, or even a large section of it? And how are we to take your anecdotal claim of using only a third of the heat source you used to over the past two years seriously?

Winters have been bloody cold where i live recently just like they normally are.

[ROCKMAN]

According to Platts just 2014 was warmer then normal while during 2013 it was colder then normal which explains the relatively high y-o-y % decrease in NG consumption in the EU-28. Additionally lower coal prices brought about some of the decrease in NG consumption as power plants switched to the nasty stuff thanks in part to lower CO2 penalties. And looking at the chart 2013 consumption fell to a level last seen in 2000. Maybe with a bit of help from coal and renewables but I suspect it was as much or more due to the economic hard times the EU has been gone thru for some time. But regardless of the decrease in NG consumption in the last 4 years the EU is still very dependent upon it for survival.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... ific_Value).png

Platts: "European gas demand fell 11.2% on the year in 2014 to 409 Bcm, or 4,418 TWh, because of "exceptionally warm" weather, industry association Eurogas said Wednesday. The weather was the warmest in Dutch and German recorded history, and the warmest in 50 years for the Czech Republic, the organization said. This reduced the need for heating. The size of the year-on-year change was further boosted by the fact that 2013's winter had been colder than average. Eurogas said that "notably low coal prices" and "low carbon dioxide prices" had also reduced gas consumption in the power generation sector, combined with competition from increased renewable energy sources."

[Withnail]

(I often disagree with Pops on some issues. We manage to discuss it and disagree without acting like small children. In fact, we manage to show each other some respect, even as we disagree. (That's a good thing about America, BTW -- free speech (in most conditions)).

I was just thinking about freedom of speech in America. In theory it's great, but in reality it allows huge powerful corporations like Fox News to lie and propagandise day in day out to audiences of millions. There's no standards and it's almost impossible to sue so this dishonest bile is hurled out to the public day after day.

The real beneficiaries of the first amendment, the ones making actual cash and controlling society, are not the people but the corporations and the oligarchs.

[dissident]

(I often disagree with Pops on some issues. We manage to discuss it and disagree without acting like small children. In fact, we manage to show each other some respect, even as we disagree. (That's a good thing about America, BTW -- free speech (in most conditions)).

I was just thinking about freedom of speech in America. In theory it's great, but in reality it allows huge powerful corporations like Fox News to lie and propagandise day in day out to audiences of millions. There's no standards and it's almost impossible to sue so this dishonest bile is hurled out to the public day after day.

Sure the guy on the corner somewhere can hold up a sign and protest about something, but who cares about that?

There is nothing unique about guys protesting on street corners. It's not some precious only-in-America "freedom". Latin America, Eastern Europe and many other formerly dictatorial countries have had it now for over two decades. The US media loves to masturbate about how totally free the US is. The Occupy Wall Street movement showed the world that the US was just as "oppressed" as Russia and all the other targets (aside from the brain dead obvious ones like North Korea) of the US MSM propaganda machine.

[Withnail]

There is nothing unique about guys protesting on street corners. It's not some precious only-in-America "freedom". Latin America, Eastern Europe and many other formerly dictatorial countries have had it now for over two decades. The US media loves to masturbate about how totally free the US is. The Occupy Wall Street movement showed the world that the US was just as "oppressed" as Russia and all the other targets (aside from the brain dead obvious ones like North Korea) of the US MSM propaganda machine.

Yeah.

The right of corporations like Fox to lie and be completely unbalanced in their coverage totally overwhelms the right of people to hold protests or whatever which as you say are nothing special anyway and indeed are often brutally broken up by US authorities.

What's the use of free speech when the vastly more powerful voice of Fox can distort anything you've said beyond recognition with no repurcussions, or just generally vilify you?

Watching some more of this documentary on Fox News, it's clear that Fox is a Soviet style propaganda organ aligned with the most right wing elements of the state.

Fox and many others in America such as the hate radio jockeys like Limbaugh and Savage are hiding behind citizens' rights never intended to permit the broadcast of lies, propaganda and hate speech to mass audiences.

[Ulenspiegel]

However, when we take serious Swedish academic publications on Russian economy and military as base we get a more nuanced but overall similar result:

1) Russia's GDP will very likely contract by 5% in 2015.

2a) Russia needs when we are talking about military aspects around 2.5% annual GDP INCREASE to finance important programmes in a sustainable way, therefore, 2015 means that Russia lose at least 3 years.

b) The low productivity of Russian workers (Russian GDP is as large/small as Italy's, this with a population of 140 million people) leads on one hand to a low unemployment, but on the other to severe problems of the Russian aremd forces to get people as professional NCOs.

c) To improve productivity reqiures foreign investments and access to modern technology, this is on halt due to the Ukrainian crisis. For me there is the real chance that Russia will lose much more years.

3) In re export of NG: If one checks the temperature corrected numbers then one still finds a decrease of NG imports for Germany and some other countries, the warm winter does not explain the whole reduction. This is no surprise when one knows a little bit about the demand side and options to replace expensive NG. I do not expect increased demand in the coming years, quite contrary, better quality of new buildings will reduce demand for heating which is almost half of the market; generation of electricity (10% of NG demand) is also under severe pressure.

[kublikhan]

The Russian media is reporting an indefinite delay in the final signing of the contract for Russia’s state-run Gazprom to supply China with gas through a new Siberian pipeline because of a decline in Chinese demand for the fuel. The lower demand stems from an economic slowdown in China, reducing the country’s need for gas, as well as the increased availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Australia. This is according to Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the Moscow investment bank Sberbank, who spoke in an interview published July 22 in the Russian-language financial newspaper Vedomosti.

Both gas deals were seen as a way to help jump-start Russia’s flagging economy. At one time it seemed that China would be the ideal customer. China’s gas consumption had grown by between 12 percent and 13 percent during 2013. But during 2014 it fell by 8.5 percent.

Because of the cost of building the Russian pipeline, Gazprom was comfortable proposing that the China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) pay a high price for the gas. But China now seems reluctant to pay that price and is willing to take its time to get Russia to agree to lower it. “Gazprom offers CNPC a high price, explaining this by the high cost of the Power of Siberia-2 construction. China is ready to build the pipeline at a cheaper cost and at public tender, so its companies could participate and for the construction price to be transparent,” he told the Russian television network RT. “Gazprom refuses, and China does not hurry.”

Russia-China Gas Relationship On The Rocks

[Withnail]

However, when we take serious Swedish academic publications on Russian economy and military as base we get a more nuanced but overall similar result:

1) Russia's GDP will very likely contract by 5% in 2015.

The figure is more like just over 2% with a return to growth next year.

b) The low productivity of Russian workers (Russian GDP is as large/small as Italy's, this with a population of 140 million people) leads on one hand to a low unemployment, but on the other to severe problems of the Russian aremd forces to get people as professional NCOs.

Russia is the world's 5th largest economy on the World Bank's PPP index. Italy is 10th.

[Ulenspiegel]

OK, it depends which GDP you use, I give you this.

Point still is these two countries are GDP wise quite similar, population wise not. And your source does not change the fact that the low productivity in Russia is an issue, which even has military implications.

BTW: we will see in a few months how much the Russian GDP shrinks in 2015.

[ROCKMAN]

Withnail - "There's no standards and it's almost impossible to sue...". So your concept of free speech is that anyone should be free to express their positions...as long as they agree with your positions? Now I understand: you and Putin apparently attend the same "free speech" training program. LOL.

[Withnail]

BTW: we will see in a few months how much the Russian GDP shrinks in 2015.

Forgive me if I find Swedish sources about as credible as their Russian submarine stories.

[Withnail]

Withnail - "There's no standards and it's almost impossible to sue...". So your concept of free speech is that anyone should be free to express their positions...as long as they agree with your positions? Now I understand: you and Putin apparently attend the same "free speech" training program. LOL.

No, in the UK we have journalistic standards. Journalists aren't allowed to lie. If they do lie and someone complains, they must publish a correction.

It's really not a difficult concept.

There are other standards as well. The kind of one sided abusive haranguing that goes on on Fox News wouldn't be allowed either.

Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO). You can find full details of the new organisation, and how to complain, at http://www.ipso.co.uk.

There's also OFCOM http://consumers.ofcom.org.uk/complain/

Journalists themselves can also blow the whistle on organisations forcing them to lie.

What is it with Americans LOLing childishly when actually they don't have a clue what they're talking about, by the way?

Not being anti American, (God forbid) just seems silly.