https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=Pavel Felgenhauer, about the challenges and difficulties faced by the armed forces of Russia, why the main threat to the country is concentrated in Central Asia and why Russian politicians regularly threaten to destroy the United States.
- Last spring we saw a "polite people" - it turned out that the Russian armed forces, which will not expect anything good, can suddenly look modern and efficient. Is it really?
- Not to be confused weapons, equipment and discipline. Polite, soldiers carried out the orders can be armed with bows and clubs.
At the same time, armed with modern weapons and forces can be horde. This is not directly related things.
Yes, Russia has a well-trained units. A certain level of discipline in our armed forces have always maintained - not to say that they had ever turned to the crowd looting bandits (though this too happened in history). In this case, the armed forces as a whole remain backward and unprepared for modern war. Adopted a program of rearmament until 2020, which means that the current armed forces - not modern. There were serious attempts to modernize, but a great success so far failed to achieve that show the fighting in the Donets Basin, where the fighting as they were 50 years ago.
This does not mean that it is impossible to fight - you can, especially if your opponent is exactly the same. But with modern armed forces of the West is better not to face on the battlefield, otherwise remain horns and legs.
- What is the percentage of modernized parts of the Russian armed forces, as they "polite people"?
- "Friendly people" - it's just a riot that took Simferopol airport. They are disciplined and very well prepared. Yes, they are strikingly different from the Cossacks and robbers in rainbow camouflage: before, during the Chechen wars, our special forces looked different, because people bought their equipment and form themselves. In Crimea, were all dressed in the same type of "figure" (a type of camouflage. - Approx. Ed.), And therefore it was immediately clear who they are coming from. But the weapons and equipment of the soldiers still did not meet modern standards. They are not the weapons, not the armor, not the means of communication.
There is nothing fundamentally changed. We do not make a modern small arms, we do normal rounds, artillery shells do not have long - shoot old. No normal mass sniper rifle, and no snipers. There are a handful of specialists in the FSB - they have a foreign guns and bullets. Something managed to buy abroad, but also partly in very small quantities.
Our tanks - rubbish, everyone knows that, and so create brand new tanks - platform "Armata". Soviet tank at a dead end, it is difficult to accept for many reasons, but it is all well understood. Our tanks are willing to buy only those countries where there are no problems with fertility.
In the Donbas with that and the other side is fighting our technique and burns like a candle.
Our aircraft can not effectively support the infantry units - in any case, at night and in bad weather. We have a problem with modern engines Jets, growing backlog. With avionics problems, we have not done a good modern radar. Radars are established in different countries, but the components are produced in one place - in the United States. For example, there is the item for active phased antenna array, it only makes Americans Raytheon. We bought it, but no longer work. And with its manufacturer does not come out.
Have you heard about the GPS-sighting? Management of artillery fire comes with the computer by GPS-coordinates of targets that tracked the drone in the sky. I've seen it personally on the Lebanese border during the 2006 war, when Israel beat battery of south Lebanon. In this way, manages to maintain a high-precision conventional cheap fire projectiles. But in Russia, this is not, and we do not know how. And yet we can not use GPS so vbuhali a lot of money in the GLONASS. In general, serious problems.
Although we launched the production of drones otvёrtochnoe "Outpost" on Israeli license, in fact it IAI Searcher twenty years ago.
With their help, we can somehow coordinate fire rocket launchers. This made it possible to crush the end of August 2014 the southern group of Ukrainian troops under Ilovaiskaya and Saur-grave. But in general, these drones have a million countries, and they were already in Georgia during the 2008 war. That is, in fact, we have armed forces at the level of Pakistan. Of course, they have nuclear weapons, missiles, submarines. However, how many of them really suitable in the case of nuclear war, no one really knows, but will not specifically check.
All serious modernization in Russian history relied on Western technology, access to which will now be difficult. It is unclear Will something seriously to achieve. In the military sphere, and so prices are rising all the time, and now starts strong inflation. For the same money will be able to buy up to five times less than planned, but some things can not be done at all. Every year, Russia made military purchases in the United States on a couple of billion dollars. It is not only complete, but also high-precision machines. The whole world goes on 3D-printing precision parts and complex profile of powder metals. And we still have digital machines for learn to use and everything to finish Uncle Vasya with a file. Well, how, then, there will be modern armed forces? They are not modern. See it soon.
There is a famous saying of Churchill: "Russia is not as strong as you are afraid, and not as weak as you hope." Not because it was bad with the armed forces before, it's not so good now.
- And who started the process of modernization in the Russian army - the disgraced Anatoly Serdyukov and Sergei Shoigu?
- The armed forces has upgraded the former Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov. Serdyukov did not climb at all these things, but was willing to carry out reforms and made it possible Makarov act radically. After coming Shoigu in 2012 began a rollback. No new reforms; partially dismantle what they did. When Shoigu situation has become much worse than it was when Serdyukov.
When Serdyukov took up the most important - for military education. Military education in Russia - something quite dreadful. And when you have of poorly educated officers obtained poorly educated generals, there is big trouble. Russia generally very provincial country situated outside the world of progress, and especially in the armed forces. The Russian military were isolated More from tsarist times. They frankly do not understand what modern war. They know that there is a new technical tricks, gadgets, but missed all the revolution in military affairs. They still taught by the Second World War, it is still an example of everything.
- However, the Crimean events called hybrid example of modern war.
- It's fiction, horror story. War in the Crimea was not, because no one has provided armed resistance. Of course, there were certain logistical problems, but they were quite solved, since a number of the fleet was. Operations to enhance the protection of the fleet have been prepared in advance, there secretly caught up additional forces, although there already and was the Marines. When you do not resist, it is always easier.
- Is it possible to now a large-scale clash in the spirit of 50 years ago?
- Of course, it is possible. Just usually when there is a collision of a modern army with outdated, it looks like the opposition of the Spaniards with the Indians. Or Zulu spears against the British with machine guns. Large masses are insolvent: during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a huge army of Saddam Hussein was completely useless is not suitable. Yes, old and dusty army can fight defensive battles in small groups, as did good "Hezbollah" during the Second Lebanon War. But sitting in the defense can not be defeated. And when you, as an in-dash, beating high-precision weapons and not fall on the area, and where it is necessary, you can not attack. It is very fast demoralizing. It is impossible to sustain, people just throw technique and running.
Threat
- In December, has published a new Russian military doctrine. What can be judged on it?
- The military doctrine - a document indirect action. When in 1993 wrote a liberal constitution, there was added a norm that should be in Russia's military doctrine and that it should be open document. And once she opened document, its no one takes seriously - the doctrine always treated disregard. I once asked one of the chief of the General Staff, as he uses this doctrine. He replied that he did not use, because the paper is too rigid.
Military doctrine - is, in fact, a great press release, the reflection of some real things in a distorting mirror. But in the real planning it is not used. There are documents of direct action - a defense plan and plan the use of the Armed Forces. Previously, they can not be even had to mention, you can now. But to talk about them is meaningless because they have the highest level of secrecy - OB.
Talk to the military doctrine of the plans - it's like to talk about Russia's constitution. We have a wonderful constitution, there are lots of things to write.
So what?
- Is it possible to clash with NATO in the current environment?
- Yes, we are ready, otherwise why is conducted rearmament program? On it kind of money thrown. Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov said openly that our armed forces are preparing for World War II. It is almost inevitable.
- What time?
- I think, by the year 2025. Rearmament program was launched with the calculation that after 2020 need to be prepared to either World War II or to a series of major regional conflicts - the so-called resource wars.
Our policy is based on the fact that work Malthusian trap - Malthusian trap. It will be a terrible world crisis, lack of resources and, therefore, the role of Russia will increase, but with it will grow and risks. The whole world can attack us, to take away our natural resources and a large area in the Arctic. And we will try to somehow reflect this attack from all sides.
The main enemy - of course, the United States. To a lesser extent - China. Should be built perimeter defense, which includes Ukraine. The loss of Ukraine - a breakthrough perimeter, we are totally defenseless in the face of mortal danger. Therefore, it is necessary to keep the Ukraine by any means.
The main problem, which is now agree to all the military - is that the events in Ukraine began a very bad time, we did not have time to rearm. Would be better if it happened in 2018-2020, respectively.
- As NATO respond to this?
- Now we see quite obvious threat. A couple of weeks ago there was a meeting of ministers of defense, and they received the program: will prepare for war with Russia. Voted in all countries, including Hungary and Greece. There are serious specific measures. Baltic NATO seems the most dangerous area, therefore created a European Rapid Reaction Corps, with its headquarters in Poland.
While Europeans are willing to put 30,000 soldiers, and these parts are scattered throughout the nation-states, but the headquarters will be permanent. More will create six additional headquarters along the eastern edge of NATO, in order to coordinate with local reinforcements arriving forces. At the peak of operations in Afghanistan was 140 thousand soldiers here with the Americans can be the same.
To collect the forces needed a month and a half. We are talking about high alert: the time was considered a peaceful, readiness was low, now vice versa. War - is a complex logistical and technological problems, and the armed forces are different from a taxi through the application. Ordered and it arrived five minutes later - they do not work. We are talking about the day, days, weeks and months. Nomination of large numbers of people requires a lot of effort and training. Bring the armed forces to a high degree of combat readiness - it is very expensive and long hold on it is also impossible.
- If a part of the Russian army and NATO will face, whether it is similar to the Spanish opposition to the Indians?
- Yes I Am. Different countries have different levels of armaments and training, but together they act more or less trained. This is the essence of NATO - to educate all one command language, standardized gauges and equipment. Of course, the European powers are weaker US, but to act with them as they can. In case of conflict in the Baltic States to join NATO and the neutral Swedes with the Finns.
Of course, Americans are superior to our forces in the conventional sense. Without the use of nuclear weapons there are no chances.
- And can there be a conflict with China? Million Chinese soldiers on the border with Cupid - it's just pugalka?
- It's not like the Chinese were preparing for such. All their major study done in case of confrontation with the United States in the case of the capture of Taiwan. With us, it makes no sense to fight. In Soviet times, the Far East was a real defense system and a lot of troops, and now they are there almost none. Chinese threat has not been canceled, but it looks unlikely.
- LIH threaten Russia?
- In Central Asia, a potentially volatile situation, especially in Uzbekistan. It is unclear what will happen when the die President Islam Karimov, who has no heirs. Poor, horribly crushed population, much of which - the Muslims. In Soviet times, Islam pretty cool everywhere suppressed, but in the Ferghana Valley, he stayed. There is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) - Salafi militants, absolute hardcore. Their bases were located in Afghanistan, but in 2001 the Americans came and drove them to Waziristan, and all this time they're acting. In the summer of 2014 was an attack on Karachi Airport - this is just the IMU.
They are well-trained, hard-nosed Islamic militants, US drone strikes past. IMU even acknowledged the Caliph of the Islamic state, and he appointed the head of its emir in Central Asia. That is, the IMU - is, in fact, the separation of LIH. So far, however, LIH pulls people from all over the world in their conflict in the Middle East, but I do not think it will come in the IMU. Deal in Afghanistan, they also will not leave it Pashtuns, but enter in Uzbekistan if it begins to destabilize, they are ready. In Uzbekistan, the Islamic revolution can occur, as in Egypt. But Uzbekistan is different from Egypt in that there is no Egyptian army - it's big and serious power. And the Uzbek army is not big and not serious. Islamists kill it fails.
Destabilization in Central Asia - is the most real and substantial threats from. Tens of millions of refugees, loss of Baikonur and strategic sites such as landfill "Sary-Shagan" and the object "window" on the Panj whose loss is irreparable. This cessation of manned spaceflight. We cease to be a space power. If Uzbekistan will fall, and we will be tied to the Ukraine, we will face a big problem with a war on two fronts.
- Recently in New York, was detained three Russian spies. What does this say about the work of the Russian intelligence?
- Nothing unusual. This happens from time to time, but when there was a period of friendship with the West, and we and they deal with such matters behind the scenes. Now the whole litter goes to the public.
- What about the Russian nuclear weapons? Last year at the Frunze Embankment in Moscow has opened a new National Center for State defense management. Our politicians regularly threaten to wipe the United States to the ground. And at the same time, recently learned that fell last satellite detection system launches of ballistic missiles.
- Nuclear power we seem to be there, but no one will check whether they are corroded. There were times when the rocket simply denied.
In the early warning system - a system of missile warning - recently invested large sums of money to bring to life. Changed the entire computer network: it can not be modernized bit by bit, only to re-create. The system was created in 1970 on the basis of Soviet copies of IBM-mainframe tions, became fully operational mode in the 1980s. The entry is on punched cards, and was previously harvested ten scenarios of nuclear war. Really very old system - of course, it had to be changed, and so have launched our Skynet. All secret; it is not known how long it was prepared. Used likely foreign components. Let's see how well all this will work, - replacement fraught with failures and errors.
The fact that we no longer have satellite tier means that less time to make a decision about the evacuation. Americans have 45-50 minutes to make a decision about the evacuation of senior management. They sit down in a helicopter and then use the flying command post. We, too, for the evacuation helicopters, but in Moscow problems "vozdushki": anywhere between tall buildings spanned fiber. On Frunze Embankment made platform on the water, where there are no interfering cables flight.
In the summer should start one satellite to replace. If you lose it, then make a new will be very difficult, because everything was created on the foreign components. In recent years, serious satellites were made on French platforms. 90% of the - foreign.
- Dmitry Rogozin said directly that the US can destroy up to 90% of our nuclear potential in just a couple of hours. Is this true?
- The US has not yet worked through Russia as an enemy, but now they have considered this as a great joy. US military and defense industry is advantageous to have as an enemy of Russia instead igil. Why igil against nuclear submarines? Russia as an enemy of China is also much better: it has a nuclear triad weaker than ours. Those generals who now heads the US armed forces, began to serve back in the Cold War. They were all clear and familiar.
A threat of a nuclear war is nothing new. This is a tactic of the Cold War, the whole thing has established terms of which have simply forgotten. This brinkmanship - «brinkmanship." The term coined More John Foster Dulles, who in 1950 was Secretary of State under Eisenhower. One side is threatening nuclear war, and since this is MAD (mutual assured destruction - mutual assured destruction), the other side will give way to pull back from the brink of conflict.
Master of this policy has been a great friend of Putin Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who is very cool with this balancing our obegoril during the "Yom Kippur War" in the Middle East in 1973. He explained a few days the Soviet leadership that his boss Richard Nixon - a crazy anti-communist, constantly drunk whiskey (which, in general, it is true) and is ready to push the nuclear button. It worked: we retreated significantly lost its influence in the Middle East.
During the Cold War, this reception is actively used by the West, because in the conventional sense, they were weaker than the Warsaw Pact, and nuclear - exceeded. Now the opposite is true. In the conventional sense, Russia is much weaker - both qualitatively and quantitatively. Therefore, we can only nuclear deterrence. Use of nuclear weapons can not be otherwise from Russia will remain just ashes, and so we will threaten to use, prompting the West to make concessions and compromises to avoid the worst.
This time-tested tactic - as well as the proxy-war. What is now in the Donbass - is proxy-war like Vietnam, Afghanistan and the Middle East conflict. The Cold War is back, back and tactics of the Cold War. Especially since there are people who began service in 1970 and all of this is well remembered. Putin.
- And what will happen in Ukraine?
- Will unstable truce, and then again worsening in late spring or early summer. Now you need to quickly break all parties. During the winter campaign ends, then start the summer campaign. Russia's goal is clear - to regain control over Ukraine. Russia is not interested in Debaltseve and Kiev. And while the goal is not reached, the conflict will continue. Proxy-war and can last for decades. Nobody will allow Ukraine to be a Western ally to the US and German tanks and missiles stood at Poltava.
Foreign peacekeepers in the Donbass not be, it is clear for a long time, and the current Russian Ukrainian regime would not let go. In addition, they are not fundamentally different from the OSCE observers, they have a mandate only to defend themselves, and that they prefer to give up, so reliable: most likely survive. Our peacekeepers fought in 2008, but in principle, the peacekeepers are not fighting and patrolling the demilitarized zone. They are not forced to the world, but only watched.
- What events in Ukraine affect Russian call?
- The crisis of 2008 has solved the problem with the staffing of the US armed forces and our military is now hoped that due to unemployment will be easier to hire contractors. People desperate because of the crisis, will be recorded on the war. So it will or not - I do not know, the more that we have not created a normal system of recruitment and did not fully understand what it is. Therefore, the contract we have big problems and high turnover. So yes, while in Ukraine can not do without conscripts, who corresponded as contract retroactively. Length of service now will not increase, although it is difficult to say what will be the next to fall. It all depends on the situation.
- In general, the world would not be?
- Not yet. Peaceful resolution of the conflict is not yet visible.
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