I stand corrected. I had no idea so many large oil fields had been discovered in the last 20 years. But it still doesn't change my larger point. Not even a tiny bit.
Lets do some math to better understand this issue.
well actually in the post I quoted from you had no "larger point". But irrespective of that looking at new discoveries (especially as of late where there has been very little in the way of exploration) alone in comparison to production is extremely misleading. There is a considerable amount of 2P and 3P reserves still not ranked as Proven and there are Resources which also will get upgraded to reserves and eventually 1P through increasing commodity price and improved technologies that can lower costs. As I said up thread IEA is suggesting about 3.9 trillion bbls remaining which gives close to 120 years of production at current consumption. But any projections made into the future require a number of other variables to be addressed at the same time including improved recovery factors in existing fields (as an example the last 20 or so years has seen the assumed average recovery factor from fields in Saudi Arabia double; and there is a lot of room for increasing recovery factor for unconventionals), replacement of oil as a fuel with EVs, natural gas and other renewables and the projected decrease in consumption in the latter part of the 20th century.
The rest, reserves (or reservoirs) that have not been produced are either considered worthless at any cost (for instance Green River shale} or not found. That latter hardly exist, as the planet has been explored mapped and extracted to the nth degree. Only a few more secret places are apt to be found. This is why we know about pre-salt in the Atlantic. It is under 20,000 feet of dense salt, rock and ocean. Yet we found it. There is little or nothing left. Kaiser, you can trust me
Where do you come up with this crap?
There are a lot of discovered fields that have yet to be commissioned and a lot of fields that are at the very early part of their production history. Cases in point:
Libra Field just came on stream in November of last year and there is 8 -12 billion bbls there according to various estimates. Lots of oil to be produced and lots of wells to drill
Johan Castberg Project offshore Norway is under construction with first oil expected in 2022, reserves estimated at 450 – 650 MMB
Clair Ridge, UK North Sea. Will be commissioned in 2018 and produce up to 120,000 bopd.
Hebron off East Coast Canada started production in November of last year and will peak somewhere at 100,000 bopd
Liza – offshore Guyana in the development stage. Production startup is scheduled for 2020 with rates in excess of 200,000 bopd from a 2 billion bbl estimated reserve