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THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Sat 12 May 2018, 09:41:53

Tanada wrote:Yeah sure, we know the world is awash in crude, right? Meanwhile I expect prices to rise about $10/bbl possibly more. How much they actually rise will depend on what countries actually do in terms of sanctions and how that effects the international flow of oil.


Indeed. A vapid propaganda piece that rests on the notion that OPEC has arbitrary spare capacity. This is no longer true for Saudi Arabia and is no longer true for OPEC as a whole. I don't see where they get the idea that Russia will crank up production. The current price rise is giving it a massive incentive not to raise production.
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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 May 2018, 12:03:37

Indeed. A vapid propaganda piece that rests on the notion that OPEC has arbitrary spare capacity. This is no longer true for Saudi Arabia and is no longer true for OPEC as a whole.


Horsepucky. Please show us your evidence that Saudi Arabia doesn't have spare capacity. According to everything that has appeared anywhere, their total capacity currently sits at 12.5 MMB/d which means they have a space capacity north of 2 MMB/d.
That spare capacity was put in place through the megaprojects which were completed from 2006 through 2010. Billions of dollars were spent, foreign contractors who attest to the projects having been successful etc.
Next you will be arguing that the moon landing was faked. :roll:
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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 13:19:46

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... is-request

Bibi boasts how he used Trump to further Israel's ambitions. I wonder if Americans know that they are sock puppets for Bibi.

The Orwellian nonsense of this designation is extreme. What has the ING done to civilians anywhere? The USA has been killing 84% innocent civilians with its drone operations for years. By the US's own terrorism standards this is terrorism.
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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 Apr 2019, 04:34:25

We do know that Iran, an ally of Russia, supplied IED'S that killed hundreds of Americans in Iraq. But Russia has supported and supplied international terrorism for decades.
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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 10 Apr 2019, 12:07:18

dissident wrote: What has the ING done to civilians anywhere?


As Cog noted above, the ING played a central role in the civil war and terrorism in Iraq, including the supply of IEDs to Iraqi terror groups.

Iran and the ING are now deeply involved in the war in Syria, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and the creation of massive numbers of refugees.

The ING also played a role in the kidnapping of US citizens in Iran which were used as leverage against the Obama administration.

AND, there is evidence that the ING is involved in drug running to the west, which is enough to censure them right there IMHO.

iran-drug-running-scandal-hezbollah-obama-administration-coverup-

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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 21 Feb 2023, 09:37:56

Iran enriched uranium to 84 percent

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with a group of Basij paramilitary force in Tehran on Nov. 26, 2022.

Iran appears to have made a new and worrying advance in its nuclear program. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that it has reached the level of 84 percent enriched uranium, a significant advance on the 60 percent previously announced. The magic number needed for making an atomic bomb is 90 percent.

The new figure was discovered by monitoring equipment operated by the world’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But the Bloomberg report did not reveal how much uranium enriched to this extent Iran has produced. The amount needed for a nuclear bomb is about a grapefruit-sized worth, which would weigh around 33 pounds. (Uranium metal is even more dense than lead.)

This latest revelation comes just a few days after news emerged that Iran had altered the piping joining two groups of centrifuges in its Fordow plant, a change that would allow faster enrichment to higher levels.

That change was discovered by chance. The IAEA can carry out three types of inspections: “announced” (i.e., planned in advance with Iran’s cooperation), “unannounced” (inspectors suddenly turning up and demanding access), and “random” (a variation of unannounced but much rarer). The piping alteration at Fordow caught the eye of an experienced inspector on such a random inspection, a detail that his well qualified but less experienced colleagues may have missed.

The Bloomberg report suggests the higher enrichment level may not be definitive. Was it reached on purpose or accumulated by accident? An Iranian nuclear scientist has claimed, correctly, that it is in the nature of the enrichment process that the spinning centrifuges produce a range of enrichment values above and below the target level.

Even at a notional 6 percent less than the level needed for a nuclear bomb, the 84 percent figure is worrying. Uranium enrichment 101 is that the process is all about the separation of two isotopes of uranium, the slightly lighter U235 isotope from the heavier but more numerous U238 isotope. The ratio of such isotopes in natural uranium is 993 U238 atoms to just 7 U235 atoms. The enrichment process alters the ratio. The 90 percent level is when the ratio is just 1:7 — i.e., 992 atoms of U238 have been stripped out. Eighty-four percent is roughly this ratio, so a workable bomb may need just a pound or two more of U235 to function. And Twitter feeds, milking the Bloomberg story, are reminding us that the first U.S. bomb, dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945, used material of roughly the 84 percent level.

So, the new level that Iran reportedly has reached is well beyond most people’s “red line” of concern. It doesn’t necessarily mean that Iran is close to actually making a nuclear bomb. Officials say that Iran still seems to be challenged when it comes to making the gaseous uranium hexafluoride used in centrifuges into solid metal and casting it into hemispheres that, when placed together as a sphere, could be the explosive core of a nuclear bomb.

But officials also acknowledge that their level of confidence in knowing what Iran is doing on weapon design is significantly less than its enrichment activities. And if Iran were to settle for a bomb delivered by an aircraft, rather than on a long-range missile, the sophistication of design needed could be less. Of course, if Iran were to test a device in a remote desert area, it could be much cruder than a deliverable bomb.

A new additional concern for officials is that the Russian military may slip Iran a critical mass or two of 90 percent enriched uranium, as China did to jump-start Pakistan’s program in the early 1980s. Moscow’s historical record against such proliferation has been exemplary. But the Ukraine war and Iran’s supply of drones to Russia may prompt some elements to give Tehran a special “thank you.”

More details may emerge in the next few days. The IAEA, headquartered in Vienna, said Sunday that it is “discussing with Iran the results of recent Agency verification activities.” The issue probably will figure high on the agenda of the next meeting of its board of governors, due on March 6.

LINK

This article is somewhat grasping at straws. They start off by telling the reader that 90% enrichment is needed to build a successful weapon but buried at the very end they admit the Hiroshima bomb had around an 84% enrichment.

You can not have it both ways no matter how many words you write the fundamental physics doesn't change. In reality any enrichment good enough to sustain a fast reaction, which starts around 17% for Uranium 235, can in theory be used for a weapon. The higher the enrichment the less material you need to compress and the lower the necessary compression to achieve an explosion. At that 17% limit you need about 1000 kg of material and you need a very massive chemical explosion to compress it enough to get even a small nuclear detonation which is why it is perfectly safe to use as reactor fuel, building a bomb out of it is impractical.

That being said every time you increase the enrichment you halve the needed material and also reduce the compression necessary. So at 34% you need about a 500 kg, still impractical. At 51% enrichment you need about 250 kg of material and now you are in the realm of practical engineering. Difficult but possible. At 68% you are down to 125 kg and at that point you can use a Hiroshima type arrangement with one mass slamming into another mass under simple chemical explosives for a low efficiency boom. Too big for a missile but very easily fits in a cargo container.

Now we hear Iran has 84% enriched material, about the same as the USA used in 1945 to destroy Hiroshima with a mass of just 60 kg of material. Also at this enrichment you can do away with the gun assembly method and switch over to compression detonation reducing you material demand from 60 kg to 15 kg. Just how hard is it to conceal 15kg of Uranium which is a mass a little bit bigger than an American Softball?
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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 28 Mar 2023, 22:03:23

Netanyahu Told UK Israel Will Respond To Iran's 90% Uranium Enrichment



Israeli will respond if Iran enriches uranium to weapons-grade 90 percent, even without US help, Benjamin Netanyahu has told his British counterpart.

A senior Israeli official, who accompanied Netanyahu on his trip to London on Friday, informed Iran International that the Israeli prime minister told UK's Rishi Sunak that "military attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran are not the only solution for Israel, and this country is considering other solutions to stop Iran."

Since mid-2020, several acts of sabotage and explosions in Iran's nuclear facilities have been attributed to Israel.

Successive Israeli governments have firmly stated that the Jewish state will not tolerate a nuclear armed Iran and will use all options to protect its security.

This senior official added that Israel demands US military support and European sanctions to prevent Iran from moving towards 90% uranium enrichment. Iran has been enriching up to 60 percent since 2021 in violations of the 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, known as the JCPOA.

US officials have said that Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium to be able to produce sufficient for producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in two weeks.

The United States has adopted a tougher tone toward Iran since long-running nuclear talks reached a deadlock last September and public opinion was shaken by a violent and deadly crackdown of protests in Iran. Western powers have also become alarmed by Iran’s delivery of suicide drones to Russia.

Israel and Britain have highly advanced intelligence ties, and their cooperation has so far prevented terrorist attacks by the Islamic Republic in Europe.

Netanyahu met with his British counterpart Rishi Sunak in London on Friday to discuss Iran’s nuclear and conventional threats, among other issues.

Readouts of the Friday meeting from both sides said the two talked about the security and defense challenges they share, including the threat posed by Iran, as well as ways to strengthen the relationship between Britain and Israel.

Netanyahu also invited Sunak for an official visit to Israel, the Israeli statement said. He left Downing Street less than an hour after he arrived as hundreds of protesters gathered at the gates of No 10 to demonstrate against the Israeli prime minister’s policies, especially his overhaul of the judiciary.

Downing Street said that in his meeting with Netanyahu, Sunak "stressed the importance of upholding the democratic values that underpin our relationship, including in the proposed judicial reforms in Israel.”

It added that the two men also discussed the war in Ukraine and Iran's "destabilizing activity", as well as its nuclear program, and agreed that their “governments would continue to work closely together to push back against aggression and manage the risk of nuclear proliferation.”

Earlier in the week, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen was in London to press Jerusalem’s position about the Islamic Republic’s threat and bolster bilateral economic ties.

The Israeli diplomat signed an agreement called the 2030 Roadmap for UK-Israeli Bilateral Relations, which according to the British Foreign Office “contains detailed commitments for deepening cooperation across the breadth of the Israel-UK relationship, including on trade, cyber, science and tech, research and development, security, health, etc.”

Iran International News
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Re: THE Iran & the Nuclear Factor Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Wed 29 Mar 2023, 10:19:58

Netanyahu suspends judicial reform: I will not lead Israel to civil war

I wonder if Israel is up for an Iran strike these days???
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