spike wrote:I would recall the NETL report that Robert Hirsch co-authored, to be found here:
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf
He has a table of predictions of peak. Most are now past.
Sure... But I think this report, along with "peak oil" narrative becoming a mainstream subject at that time, had consequences for both supply/consumption and the oil prices.
- Oil prices stayed quite high until 2014. There was probably some speculation related to the imminence of an oil peak outside market fundamentals.
- ICE efficiency increased. Although many factors are involved (GW, price of gas, laws on clean air), the mpg became an argument for car dealers.
- LTO development may have been helped by the prospects of a tighter oil market. Of course, the price was the main catalyst. But a long-term perspective of high oil prices fueled by the idea peak oil may have had some effects on the investments and the frenzy of oil drillings.
We are now in the opposite situation. Peak oil demand narrative replaced the scarcity narrative of the past decade in the mainstream medias. A story of declining oil consumption that call for lower oil prices, which push the consequences I listed here in the opposite direction.
This is nothing new if we look at history. Booms and busts are part of the economic cycle of oil, and the importance of oil in the economy always raise concerns when things change.
As the last bust appears to be behind, then comes the question of the next boom... And maybe the peak oil supply concerns.