Plantagenet wrote:tita wrote:
What is .... impressive is how operators managed to get much higher initial rate than older wells. We talked a lot about sweet spots being drilled first... But using longer laterals and different proppants, they were able to get higher rates with half of the drillings made in 2013. This is why we can't compare the rig count today with the 2013 or 14.
Its not surprising that much longer horizontal completions would generate more oil then shorter ones. However, don't forget that longer completions also cost more money so the net gain in profitability isn't all that great.tita wrote:
I think it's quite clear that US production is not going to stall... Some (and also I) thought that EFS and Bakken were done... And it's not the case, they are also increasing, less than the Permian but anyway.
I beg to differ. Its physically impossible for US oil shale production to go up forever. At some point it will inevitably stall. I've suggested elsewhere that this may occur ca. 2020.
Cheers!
Tita is correct that the initial results of the newer wells are impressive. The high short term returns on these make the long term lower yields hugely profitable for most wells over time. Thus the economics of such new wells are very promising, over time.
Also, I don't think anyone (credible) ever seriously said US shale production will increase "forever". However, when you consider the way formations like the Permian are producing and their apparent reserves, increases for decades, and certainly well beyond 2020 are certainly possible, if not likely.
Also, the oil fracking bears tend to dismiss global production with a wave of the hand. And yet, despite some bans (which can be lifted if the price is high enough), there is plenty of potential there, especially as fracking technology continues to improve. All it takes is high enough oil prices. So when US fracking supply does stumble significantly down the road, I look for global oil fracking to take its place once oil prices justify it.
And of course, this assumes global oil demand continues rising apace. In two or more decades, green energy like BEV's, PHEV's, and even plain old HEV's could be greatly damping the net demand for oil globally. If that keeps oil prices relatively low, that means the world doesn't even NEED the "hard to get" foreign tight oil, which would be great news.