Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Plantagenet wrote:AdamB wrote:The article referenced doesn't claim that global production of oil will peak with the Permian, but then they probably know that the Permian Wolfcamp and Spraberry formations aren't the sum total of light tight oil yet to be produced
Like many people, you don't know even know what peak oil means.
Plantagenet wrote:Now some are predicting the Permian tight shale play will also peak in a few years, i.e. ca. 2020-21.
Cheers!
Plantagenet wrote:Global Conventional Oil Production has been on a "bumpy plateau" of between 72-74 million bbls per day since ca. 2005.
conventional-crude-oil-production
dcoyne78 wrote:It is simpler to talk about C+C rather than "conventional" oil, much easier to find the data.
Plantagenet wrote:dcoyne78 wrote:
I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.
Sure, that seems reasonable. But the 2016 conventional peak is just slightly higher then the level conventional oil production has been at since 2005. To me it looks like just another bump on the bumpy plateau.
ROCKMAN wrote:OK, not to hurt the feelings of anyone in particular let me again explain why much of the discussion of conventional vs unconventional oil is wasted space. As pointed out before oil is oil and it doesn't matter if it came from a conventional or unconventional RESERVOIR.
Plantagenet wrote:But Peak Oil isn't about the kind of reservoir the oil is coming from. Peak Oil is about the maximum rate of global oil production from ALL reservoirs and ALL sources.
ROCKMAN wrote:....your chart is complete bullsh*t.
ROCKMAN wrote: Granted the new shales plays in the PB are a different group of "unconventional reservoirs" that doesn't make the tens of thousands of previously developed PB wells conventional.
Plantagenet wrote:It wasn't until the 1990s that hydraulic fracking began to be used in places like the Austin Chalk.
Plantagenet wrote:You are right that the Austin Chalk work included horizontal wells and hydraulic fracking, but the Austin Chalk is not shale, and the wells were short and the pumps not very powerful and too little oil was produced to affect global markets.
It wasn't a game changer.
Plantagenet wrote:The game changer was fracking of tight shale oil reservoirs, and the term "unconventional oil" is often used today to refer to oil obtained using modern hydraulic fracking on tight shale oil reservoirs.
EIA TIE Article wrote:Hydraulic fracturing involves forcing a liquid (primarily water) under high pressure from a wellbore against a rock formation until it fractures. The fracture lengthens as the high-pressure liquid in the wellbore flows into the formation. This injected liquid contains a proppant, or small, solid particles (usually sand or a manmade granular solid of similar size) that fills the expanding fracture. When the injection is stopped and the high pressure is reduced, the formation attempts to settle back into its original configuration, but the proppant keeps the fracture open. This allows hydrocarbons such as crude oil and natural gas to flow from the rock formation back to the wellbore and then to the surface.
EIA Hydraulic Fracturing
pstarr wrote:
Plant, "60-70 Billions Bbls of recoverable oil in Permian Basin, worth 3.3 trillion at today's prices" you should know better, especially you. Really?
Recoverable is no measure of reserves, and reserves are meaningless without a specific price point.
pstarr wrote:That’s the one whose 20 billion barrels are an estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey. l
coffeeguyzz wrote:The 20 billion barrel assessment was for the Wolfcamp in the Midland sub basin ONLY! It explicitly did NOT include the Wolfcamp in the much larger Delaware sub basin.
The Spraberry assessment in the Midland sub basin was for an additional 4 billion barrels.
When all is said and done, including the various trends in south east New Mexico, the USGS assessments may approach 100 billion barrels.
coffeeguyzz wrote:
The EIA Bakken region includes the poorly producing Montana, which can skew things somewhat.
There are almost 1,500 wells temporarily shut in in the North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks.
coffeeguyzz wrote:Wouldn't surprise me to see a new high this summer if pricing holds.
Possibly. But its also possible that most of the better and more productive parts of the Bakken have already been drilled, making it more and more difficult to greatly increase production from current levels.
In fact, a peak in Bakken production ca. 2015 was predicted by a number of analysts, including SRC and Jean Laherrere. So far it looks like they were right.
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