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America now has more untapped oil than any other country

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 17:32:30

pstarr wrote:Dicktuneery for fancy words


Warning for lurkers. This poster claims to be an alumni from this university. As you might surmise, inaccurate spelling might not be an accident.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 17:38:52

pstarr wrote:That's right Rock. But you left out that corn liquor and animal fat lol
Biofuels: Liquid fuels and blending components produced from biomass feedstocks, used primarily for transportation. Biogenic: Produced by biological processes of living organisms. Note: EIA uses the term "biogenic" to refer only to organic nonfossil material of biological origin.


"Petroleum and other liquids: All petroleum including crude oil and products of petroleum refining, natural gas liquids, biofuels, and liquids derived from other hydrocarbon sources (including coal to liquids and gas to liquids). Not included are liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid hydrogen. See liquid fuels."

http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.cfm?id=p


Tell us how you are avoiding the use of all these evil items with your EV then.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 17:49:07

Adam - You shot yourself in your own foot: "The bottom line, which you keep squirming to avoid, is that to the average american, $2.05 a gallon is cheap." As you just proclaimed: cheap is a relative term. So the term "expensive" must also be relative. Thus in essense you just stated "that to the average american, $2.05 a gallon is expensive." After all there are millions of our citizens that struggle to jeep their gas tanks full. RELATIVELY SPEAKING "$2.05 a gallon" is expensive.

BTW there was no such thing as "petroleum geology" in the 1800's per se. In fact it wasn't until 1920 and later that oil companies even began to routinely hire geologists. Originally wells were drilled (such as Col. Drake's first oil well ever drilled) at sites of surface oil seeps. Or found accidentally while drilling for water...such as one of the first giant Texas fields, Corsicans, found at 600'. It wasn't until the early 1900's that the first geophysical technics (gravity and magnetic surveys) were used to hunt oil. It was only then that the oil patch needed geologists. IOW first came the data and then came the need for geologists to analize the data. And when geologists began studying the data...SHAZAM!!! petroleum geology was born. LOL.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 18:07:03

And I just noticed the mistake in the thread's title. It should read "America now has more UNTAPPABLE oil then any other country". LOL. And I'm not really sure we have the most proven noncommercial oil at the currernt price.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 18:49:35

The EIA shows data for crude oil which as it's definition implies is only oil from the ground along with condensate from associated gas. I don't think any of the discussion here was about anything other than crude oil and not "crude oil and other liquids".
And the Rystad Energy report which this thread refers to includes only crude and condensate.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 19:38:19

pstarr wrote:The time you spent carefully photoshopping that picture specifically for me is an indication of a severe mental illness.


Funny how you flag Adam as mentally ill while embracing StarvingLion as if he's sane.

Seems like the only thing required for you to flag them as sane is to support your position.

pstarr wrote:I will be forced to repost everything I previously wrote.


Like that bothers you? You've been repeating your mantra that peak-oil caused the credit crisis since 2008.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 07 Aug 2016, 20:20:42

ROCKMAN wrote:there are millions of our citizens that struggle to jeep their gas tanks full. RELATIVELY SPEAKING "$2.05 a gallon" is expensive.


Where are these "millions of people"? Why aren't these millions of people chanting we "drill baby drill" like they did in 2008? You're manufacturing an underclass who are reeling from (relative) high gas prices that simply doesn't exist.

Real poor people can not afford to own and insure a car, let alone fill it with gas. The poles (really poor and really rich) are really not applicable to the question of ascribing a single label to the level of prosperity of the country. The averages are what counts, and the average says gas is cheap and it's a glut. To claim otherwise is shifting the goalposts in the worst way.

Read this quote from the article I cited:

“U.S. crude oil supplies are at their highest level for this time of year in 86 years,” AAA noted in its weekly report on Monday. As a result, “Gas prices are likely to remain low for the remainder of the summer compared to recent years.”


Highest crude oil supplies in 86 years. This is not peak oil doom. The price of finished products as is as cheap as anyone can ever hope to see it. If they still can't afford it they should maybe work a few more hours flipping burgers at McDonalds and stop whining.

BTW, the term "cheap gas" yields 2 million hits on google news. Cheap gas is, um, it's a thing.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Aug 2016, 09:17:37

pstarr wrote:As per your intended insult: The Slippery Rocks in my namesake University refer to oil seeps in the local streams, not far from Drake's Well in Pennsylvania. Where US oil production began. So yes, I do know something about oil production and geology. As for the artwork.


I assume you have BEEN to Drake's well then? And that this is the sum total of what passes for "oil" knowledge? Tell us, what did you think of it? What did you learn there?

As far as any geologic knowledge gained from a building specializing in "stoner" training (is this like some wacked way to say the building teaches about "stones", which relates to "rocks"), and therefore gifted you with geologic knowledge?

How is the tattoo shop across the street from campus? Looks a bit sketchy, but it was within like 100 yards of the Stoner Instructional Complex, and next to a convenience store that perhaps supplies munchies after the stoner instruction?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Aug 2016, 09:26:53

ROCKMAN wrote:And I just noticed the mistake in the thread's title. It should read "America now has more UNTAPPABLE oil then any other country". LOL. And I'm not really sure we have the most proven noncommercial oil at the currernt price.


There is no such thing as "untappable" oil. Only uneconomic.

https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 12:28:18

How long until we start hearing about Saudi America again?

The way I see it the hypers of Shale managed to turn a period of steeply increasing production into a future model where America was once again the exporter of choice for Europe, like the glory days of the 1930's and 1940's.

Then KSA decided not to defend the $80/bbl price that was feeding the shale boom and drilling sharply declined. Pay attention though, drilling fell about 65% but it DID NOT STOP ; it just slowed to a rate that was sustainable with $40/bbl prices.

Now that prices are hovering around $50/bbl drilling has even picked up slightly from where it was at its slowest because this price level has evidence of being long term enough for $50/bbl oil being worth drilling/completing/selling once again.

The USA is a long way from the drilling rate peaks of 2014-15, but oil is still quite a ways from that $80/bbl as well.

So to reiterate my question, how long till the hype resumes and we start hearing Saudi America is in our near future once again?

Also as a side question, it was pointed out right after the election that the Congress is highly motivated to grant drilling permits for ANWR because the TAPS needs more oil to ship, Alaska wants to have those permits ASAP and with both houses of Congress and the Executive branch nothing stands in the way of those permits being granted in January 2017. Presuming all that comes to pass and ANWR permits start getting issued in February 2017 is $50/bbl high enough to motivate the big oil companies to go forward with development in ANWR? If so how long will it take for presumed resources to be networked into the TAPS processing and pumping system at Prudhoe and shipped down to Valdez for export?
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 13:05:51

Tanada wrote:Also as a side question, it was pointed out right after the election that the Congress is highly motivated to grant drilling permits for ANWR because the TAPS needs more oil to ship, Alaska wants to have those permits ASAP and with both houses of Congress and the Executive branch nothing stands in the way of those permits being granted in January 2017. Presuming all that comes to pass and ANWR permits start getting issued in February 2017 is $50/bbl high enough to motivate the big oil companies to go forward with development in ANWR? If so how long will it take for presumed resources to be networked into the TAPS processing and pumping system at Prudhoe and shipped down to Valdez for export?

I certainly doubt that we will ever again be a net exporter of oil. Perhaps more realistically they can drill and produce ANWR at a rate that balances the decline in the rest of the north slope and keep shipments through the TAPs constant or slightly increased. 500,000 bpd for a decade perhaps?
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 15:17:23

What if they put a terminal at Prudhoe Bay where we can import Russian Siberian oil across the soon to be ice free Arctic Ocean? That would open up a new better relationship with Russia and keep TAPS operating for a very long time, say another 30 years.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 15:53:15

Subjectivist wrote:What if they put a terminal at Prudhoe Bay where we can import Russian Siberian oil across the soon to be ice free Arctic Ocean? That would open up a new better relationship with Russia and keep TAPS operating for a very long time, say another 30 years.

Is not the European market as well as China a closer delivery point for them?
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 17:07:12

vtsnowedin wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:What if they put a terminal at Prudhoe Bay where we can import Russian Siberian oil across the soon to be ice free Arctic Ocean? That would open up a new better relationship with Russia and keep TAPS operating for a very long time, say another 30 years.

Is not the European market as well as China a closer delivery point for them?


Markets are not about who is closest, they are about who is willing to pay the most and is a long term reliable customer. Part of the stated reason KSA flooded the world market in fall 2014 was to retain market share that was being lost. If Puting decides the USA would be a more reliable trading partner than the EU AND we had the ability to import through Prudhoe (which we do not have) then I could see a case being made to sell our way instead of to Germany and Poland and France.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 19:18:17

Tanada wrote:
Markets are not about who is closest, they are about who is willing to pay the most and is a long term reliable customer. Part of the stated reason KSA flooded the world market in fall 2014 was to retain market share that was being lost. If Puting decides the USA would be a more reliable trading partner than the EU AND we had the ability to import through Prudhoe (which we do not have) then I could see a case being made to sell our way instead of to Germany and Poland and France.

While transportation costs to deliver are just one factor I'm sure it is given full consideration every day.
Would we want to become dependent on deliveries from Putin's Russia?
I think not.
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Re: America now has more untapped oil than any other country

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 16 Dec 2016, 20:12:43

vtsnowedin wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Markets are not about who is closest, they are about who is willing to pay the most and is a long term reliable customer. Part of the stated reason KSA flooded the world market in fall 2014 was to retain market share that was being lost. If Puting decides the USA would be a more reliable trading partner than the EU AND we had the ability to import through Prudhoe (which we do not have) then I could see a case being made to sell our way instead of to Germany and Poland and France.

While transportation costs to deliver are just one factor I'm sure it is given full consideration every day.
Would we want to become dependent on deliveries from Putin's Russia?
I think not.


I don't want to be dependent for oil imports from any foreign country, but what I want isn't going to change the fact that over half the oil burned in the USA is brought in from somewhere else. Oil is the ultimate in frangible market dynamics, if we buy from Russia then Europe and China buy more from OPEC. Or Vice versa. So long as everyone who has demand and currency gets the oil they can afford you get smooth sailing. After global peak things will get a lot more, shall we say, interesting...
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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