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Short term GDP numbers may have large error bound

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Short term GDP numbers may have large error bound

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 27 Mar 2016, 15:51:46

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yes, I know it didn't work for you. I was being sarcastic (thus the eye roll, for those in doubt).

The article stated there was no bias, indicating the data didn't show bias. But you are sure there was bias because you believed in government.

1). Do you have any data/links to show why this is true?

2). Just because there is incompetence and disagreement in government, doesn't mean there is systematic bias. For example if the pessimist in department A tends to push the short term numbers down and the optimist in department B tends to push the short term numbers up, it might not have any net influence over time. Also, since the numbers are derived from calculations, one would hope that systematic distortion of the numbers would be caught over time by competent people or entities like the CBO, OMB, etc.

3). The Obama administration certainly should be taken to task on keeping promises. That's different than lots of deliberate outright fraud. Do you have evidence of outright fraud? (Example: claiming Obamacare would save everyone $2500 per family on premiums (on average) was closer to politics and incompetence and broken promises to me. If you could show that the ACA statistics bweing published are being actively faked by the Obama administration and that Obama knows and condones this, then that would actually be fraud.

4). You haven't told us any specifics of how you were fooled. Can you do that, or is it classified?

...

Look, I generally don't like or trust big government, on principle. However, I don't just assume all big government is completely dishonest without some sort of evidence. The internet if full of people (representing both major) parties constantly claiming lying and conspiracy by the other side. However, how often is any meaningful proof provided? I'd say far less than 1% of the time.

I speak from the experience of working forty years in and or for government bureaucracies. I have seen figures "Massaged' until they met a goal that released funding. I have seen hundreds of paid man hours wasted shuffling around government owned cars so that they would all meet a rule intended to cut waste.
Not being in Washington I of course have no hard evidence of Obama administration malfeasance other then what has come to light for the general public. I'm confidant that we don't know the half of it.
I do know that after we were told we could keep our doctor if we liked them that I and my wife have had to find not one but four new ones due to retirements , reassignments and hospital reorganizations. Literally every time I go in to get prescriptions renewed I am talking to a doctor or Physicians assistant I have never met before.
The latest one was a school mate of one of my daughters and is both very pretty and very pregnant. I expect the next time I come in she will be engrossed in motherhood.
No most government employees are not completely dishonest. most of them are just doing what they have been instructed to do often by legislative mandates that are contradictory and counter productive. But the structure of the bureaucracy is such that it serves itself and the political leaders first and the populous last.
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Re: Short term GDP numbers may have large error bound

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 28 Mar 2016, 08:42:48

A story on the morning news today. 62.8 percent of labor force is working.
To my cynical mind that means the real unemployment rate is 37.2 percent. http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali ... -11-months
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Re: Short term GDP numbers may have large error bound

Unread postby marmico » Mon 28 Mar 2016, 12:59:39

There must have been 41% "unemployment" in The Leave it to Beaver era.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=3GmN
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Re: Short term GDP numbers may have large error bound

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 28 Mar 2016, 15:26:41

marmico wrote:There must have been 41% "unemployment" in The Leave it to Beaver era.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=3GmN
Back then millions of women were staying at home raising us Baby boomers.
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Re: Short term GDP numbers may have large error bound

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 28 Mar 2016, 20:39:04

vtsnowedin wrote:A story on the morning news today. 62.8 percent of labor force is working.
To my cynical mind that means the real unemployment rate is 37.2 percent. http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali ... -11-months

So by your definition, I (at age 56) am "unemployed". But as I told the survey folks from the census in 2012, I am retired, and don't want a job.

So should we say I am unemployed to satisfy your image of "doom" in the economy? Is this the kind of thinking which prompts many on this site to claim we are in a "global depression"?

If words have no meaning, it will be kind of difficult to communicate.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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