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We are in a global recession

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 11:37:43

Good article detailing how bad the world and especially the US economy is doing right now. http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/h ... e_01302016
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:05:27

Yes in the end all these dysfunctions are a product of limits to growth. I do think the Cloward-Piven strategy is more applicable to Europe. I am not seeing an appeal to a techno fix but I do see much blame on the institutions in power. The Media seems incapable of presenting anything resembling some coherent or truthful explanation of what is going on. Manipulation where it is occurring is more of the variety of the rich trying to leave Dodge with their loot. So in the end what bothers me is what bother you Pete, no mention of the underlying roots of the problems just blame game that gets nobody anywhere.
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:21:30

Makes me think of Julian Simon who said about all the limits to growth that do not worry because the ultimate resource is humans and human intellect has no bounds. What gibberish. First human intellect is more than a little bit flawed. Second, starving dead humans do not make good resources unless of course we turn to cannibalism. Soylent green anyone?
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 06:46:57

Another sign we are most assuredly in a contraction phase of the world-wide economy. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-0 ... st-time-ev
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 23:32:51

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-1 ... king-crude
Profit At World's Largest Shipping Company Plunges On Collapsing Global Trade, Sinking Crude Prices
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 00:40:45

I know daily gyrations of the DJIA are mostly distractions, but...they're getting pretty...distracting recently:

http://www.ibtimes.com/dow-jones-indust ... ts-2303401

Dow Jones Industrial Average Plunges Amid Sea Of Red In Global Stock Markets
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 09:32:49

I would say the gyrations are going now just one direction DOWN.
"In the U.S., the Dow lost 254 more points on Thursday, and it has now fallen for five days in a row." http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... skyrockets
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 16:55:50

The slightest hint of an OPEC cut in production, and the price skyrockets!

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35564492
Oil prices surged as much as 12% on Friday after new suggestions that Opec nations were set to cut oil production.

The United Arab Emirates' energy minister said that Opec members were ready to reduce output, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Venezuela's oil minister said oil-producing nations were on a "very good path" to clinch a deal.

However, traders said sharp falls on Thursday may have triggered some bargain-hunting.

If the rumours are false, the price is likely to dive just as quick.
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 17:18:38

Price "skyrocketing" at this low floor is nothing to write home about.
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 17:37:25

ennui2 wrote:Price "skyrocketing" at this low floor is nothing to write home about.

True, a rise of $3 a couple of years ago wouldn't have even raised an eyebrow, but 10% is "newsworthy" as that IS the lead story on the BBC finance page.

There appears to be a desperate bid to find and promote the "good news" stories out there.
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 18:17:32

dolanbaker wrote:The slightest hint of an OPEC cut in production, and the price skyrockets!

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35564492
Oil prices surged as much as 12% on Friday after new suggestions that Opec nations were set to cut oil production.


Yup.

But if any OPEC nation wants to cut its production it can do it right now, even without an OPEC agreement. Curiously, none of them seem willing to do it. Same thing with Russia---its pumping full out no matter what the price is. And look out---here comes Iran with another 500,000 bbls per day to dump on the world market.

There isn't any point in OPEC agreeing to a production cut anyway---because the OPEC countries will all cheat and overproduce anyway.

The oil glut is most likely to end as US TOS oilcos go bankrupt and US production drops rather then from voluntary OPEC cuts. 8)
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 19:53:17

Plantagenet wrote:But if any OPEC nation wants to cut its production it can do it right now, even without an OPEC agreement. Curiously, none of them seem willing to do it. Same thing with Russia---its pumping full out no matter what the price is. And look out---here comes Iran with another 500,000 bbls per day to dump on the world market.

There isn't any point in OPEC agreeing to a production cut anyway---because the OPEC countries will all cheat and overproduce anyway.

The oil glut is most likely to end as US TOS oilcos go bankrupt and US production drops rather then from voluntary OPEC cuts.)

Russia relies on oil money to run the country.
They have to pump just to bring in what they can.
If the price was higher they would be able to slow down.
Its a catch 22.
Saudi(and its allies) is running its proxy war in Syria(amongst other places) against Russia(and its allies) so it in its interests to keep oil price low to bankrupt Russia.
Sure its hurts the Saudis(and their allies) too but they have long term goals and think they have a bigger bank account to win over time.
Meanwhile we get cheap oil.
Only the Saudis can jack up the price again by putting on the brakes,everyone else is just sucked into the vortex.
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ECB cuts main interest rate to 0% in surprise move

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 10 Mar 2016, 17:10:35

I bet that no one here's surprised by this move!
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/03 ... s-meeting/
The European Central Bank delved deep into its remaining arsenal of stimulus options today.

It cut all three of its interest rates and expanding asset-buying to boost the economy and prevent ultra-low inflation becoming entrenched.

In moves that initially pushed the euro 1% down against the dollar before recovering, the ECB cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and increased monthly asset buys to €80 billion from €60 billion.

This was above market expectations of an increase to €70 billion.

While the deposit rate was cut 10 basis points to 0.4%, the main refinancing rate was reduced to zero from 0.05% and its marginal lending rate – used by banks to borrow from the ECB overnight – fell to 0.25% from 0.3%.

Hoping to boost lending, consumption and inflation, the ECB said it would also start buying corporate debt and launch four new rounds of cheap loan packages, to be extended by banks to the real economy.


Wow, those printing presses must be getting red hot by now, just how much longer can this go on for?
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 10 Mar 2016, 23:23:47

What exactly is the difference between "ultra-low inflation" and just plain deflation again??
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 11 Mar 2016, 02:24:31

Ultra low has a zero before the decimal point and deflation has a minus in front. I suppose. ;)
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Re: We are in a global recession

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 19 Mar 2016, 05:52:47

This is pretty compelling data of a real slowdown in economic activity. Mining ,mineral exploitation and heavy machinery sales being a key indicator of economic activity. Oh and before anyone disputes this data because it originates from Zerohedge, please this is straight forward numbers reporting. They simply make the logical inference from said raw data. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-1 ... s-never-be
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