EnergySpin wrote:peripato wrote: Real agencies with real political agendas, like the IEA and EIA, have drawn implausible conclusions based on its flawed data?
Flawed data? Have you read the USGS?
It is one of the most well researched pieces of material that is out there ... it is the only agency that provides an estimate (call it confidence interval, Highest Posterior Density Region ) to go with all the numbers they provide.
Which is exactly why Monte discounts it perhaps? I mean, when the real earth science folks get involved, how can an honest working ecologist ever fight back? They can't. So they just ignore the information?
EnergySpin wrote:Just because a couple of morons within the IEA used the data in a particular and wrong way does not mean that the USGS produces flawed data. Additionally USGS data does not allow any conclusion to be made regarding oil decline, maximum production, peak date etc. It is only an assessment of what lies under the ground that is accompanied by a quantitative assessment of the precision of the first statement.
Well, it is my argument that we need more economists involved in the economic component of peak oil evaluation, just as we need industry professionals like Mr Doyle and My reservegrowth, and CERTAINLY we need geoscientists of the caliber and proven abilities of the USGS. Sure, the IEA makes a mess of things, but economics is messy, rarely probabilistic, but considering that peak oil turned out as they expected, generally speaking, and the industry folks expected (both of them using economic concepts), they cannot be discounted too heavily.