[sparky]

.
What this site is all about ,

-first axiom ...a limited resource will deplete
-second axiom ... extraction of a desirable resource will increase , until it doesn't
-third axiom ...a not so good resource is better than none at all

as far as it can be parsed , there is two schools of thoughts on the above

..cornucopians ,,,an increased scarcity will create opportunities to access others resources
AKA , the buried pyramid of hydrocarbons , as one dig deeper new poorer fields get exploited

..doomers ,,,, as the easy stuff get blown , the rest is crap

So far , so good , both side have arguments . both side are ( somewhat) right

This site is the only one , to my knowledge , which investigate the dynamics of hydrocarbon extraction
most people on this site would agree the consequences of world wide depletion would be momentous

Some would see it as an opportunity for an other style of world zeitgeist ,involving a new ,better style of relations
some would see it as the EOTWAWKI
Certainly , considering the widespread use of the substance and the massive societal investment in this form of power
one can presume any change would have a drastic effect

we had an abundance of "porn-doomers"
the fact that their basic outlook is laughable and have been proven wrong , time and time again
should not blind us to the fact that being wrong most of the time is no guarantee of being right once
and then ..... surprise , surprise !

I don't believe it would get to that ,
any government worth its pay would keep basic law and order ,
if necessary by machine-gunning any trace of "infection"
if you think ethnic minorities in ghetto are not worth the bullets ,
Ye , sure ,after all we are talking of a few gunships ,
never underestimate a rich minority instinct for survival

More germane to the peak oil discussion is the economic effect ,
certainly there is very good anecdotal evidence that a sharp rise in Hydrocarbons lead to economic strife
especially for the importers , just ask Greece

however the message is quite confusing ,
straight classical and neon-classical economics have been proven lacking in foresight
so has our own vision of ever rising price of crude
It should be proper to emphasis that while we got everything wrong , we stand in pretty good company

So roll on , pops has some good juices flowing ,copious abundance keep us bullshit righteous
we are watching momentous evens unfurling in front of our very eyes
the lest we can do is to watch the movie , trying to guess the plot \

[ROCKMAN]

Well put sparky. For some odd reason it brought to mind a line from a Billy Crystal movie. The father of his psychiatrist character died so folks would ask how he's coping. The tag line was something to the effect: "Grieving is a process". The point being he had moments of good thoughts remembering nice times with dad and then moments when such thoughts were downers.

Which is what you described for the never ending struggle between doomers and cornies: good thoughts/bad thoughts. Happy expectations/sad expectations. IOW the peak oil dynamic isn't the basis for a good outlook vs a bad outlook. It's both. IOW "it's a process". While we may have a number of full time doomers and cornies I suspect the majority of folks here swing from one side of the fence to the other depending on the latest developments. In effect they are POS...peak oil schizophrenic. And like all mental health issues there's seldom a straight forward cure and more commonly a PROCESS that's applied to help the afflicted thru the tough times.

So Dr. Sparky is in...please make yourself comfortable on his couch. LOL.

[hvacman]

So, RM...we on the forum are all a "POS".....I guess I can take that... I've been called that before. I may even deserve it sometimes. Acronyms can have many meanings. Just ask the urban dictionary. LOL!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=pos

[sparky]

.
The big surprise wasn't the 2007 financial train wreck ,
but the lack of any inflation after the massive creation of so much bubble digital money ,
I have the suspicion that all those virtual trillions got recycled , some in an imaginary world of reserve banking
some in an inflated stock market ,
the only substantial growth is OCDE countries government debt , now at level usually seen after a world war
the lack of consumer spending growth is indicated by the the plunging price of all kind of commodities
from wheat to iron ore and crude .
while crude extraction has been rising at a sober pace , the demand seems not to follows as fast

eventually of course supply and demand must match ,
the classic theory is that low prices will stimulate demand
there is some signs of this happening but it feel like we are still at the bottom of a long , slow business cycle.

[ralfy]

From what I know, for cornies the other resources are as good as or better than what is being depleted.

[ROCKMAN]

hman - What's the old joke: You're not rally paranoid if someone is really after you. LOL. Maybe similar with PO. We may not really be POS/schizophrenic: these really are the best of times and the worst of times.

Take me and my MS induced electric wheel chair. Went 6 blocks down the street for lunch with my cohorts earlier this week. Hot as hell in San Antonio these days. On high speed not only did I make it to the restaurant faster then they did but I wasn't sweating like a pig. For just that moment they were a tad jealous of my high speed/effortless mobility. OTOH stairs are a real bitch for me. LOL. So again: the best/worst of times. Just depends on what aspect you focus on and how it affects you.

So the oil price crash: was it a good thing or a bad thing? Easy answer: Yes! Wait...No! Wait...YES!!! Hmm...Noooooooooo!!!!! I'm not a schitzo. Yes I am! No I'm NOT!!! YES YOU ARE! You're a DOOMER! No I'm not....I'm a CORNIE!!!

SHUT UP ALL READY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dcoyne78]

Hi Rockman,

I am not sure if you still use your aol account, but I sent you an e-mail wondering about TX C+C output on Drilling Info. I have read the data is different from the data from the RRC PDQ. Can you confirm this?

Supposedly there is a "pending" data file that gets sent to DI, but is not posted on the RRC website until all the reports are in order.

[sparky]

.
If one take "conventional crude" as any hydrocarbon which float on water and can be set on fire
well , we are post peak
if one take "conventional crude" as marion Hubbert would have understood it ,a land based or shallow dept well
well , we are post peak

so what exactly is crude those days , increasingly it's something called Syncrude ,

A manufactured product ,it can be made from extra heavy ,tar sands ,coal ,in fact anything which has some carbon in it

the process varies with the feedstock , but essentially involve adding some hydrogen rich stuff and combining it

the most common is the Canadian tar sand , with a production cost of 40$/barrel or about ,
it get its hydrogen from US natural gas which those days , is close , cheap and plentiful
the most hopeful is Venezuela extraheavy ,
so far it's a sad and sorry story but , well managed it could get a production price of 50$/b (maybe)

Coal to liquid , is a straightforward process , again in the 50$/b range ,

all those production line are pretty dirty , but produce stuff which can be used by any average refinery
that's the post peak oil now and probably for a few decades

[eugene]

I think it all depends on where you are on the food chain. For the bottom 3 billion or so, catastrophe is here. They don't have time to have idle, wishful conversations re doomer, optimist or in between. Millions are starving and millions more are on the move. If you're living on 10-12 an hour in America, doomer, etc is a mute question. Again no idle talk of decades or infinite energy in some mythical technology. It is extremely obvious to me that comments on this and other blogs are written by those who are still comfortably well off and have time for idle chatter.

As I told an acquaintance the other day, I'm in third class on the Titanic where people are drowning, rushed up to first class screaming "we're sinking" where I'm considered a nut case while they are idly having a drink discussing whether this thing can sink or not.

But what the hell, it holds reality at bay.

[tita]

You may have forget a fourth axiom: A positive growth is necessary to our economy, AND is related to the production growth of a ressource.

In the last ten years, we saw the developpment of various crude oil productions, which took the relay from "conventional" production to keep the growth of this ressource. From a cornucopian point of view, this announce a new era of economical growth with the recent fall of prices. Something alike the developpment of offshore oil in the 80's, which lead to 20 years of low prices and steady growth. And in the end, resorbing the huge debt we builded in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

But on the other side, we may think that the fallout from plunging oil prices will struck hard on these new productions. And the "survivors" will not produce enough, then higher prices, then growth stuck, and then leading to another finanical crisis.

But who knows? The analysts just have a all the range of predictions, but the datas ar so complex that they just can navigate on sight, not understanding all the picture. We may have hit an iceberg, like on the Titanic, but we don't know if the boat is sinking or not.

[sparky]

.
that's pretty much my point, slyly dissimulated
while the cornucopians are correct that vast resources are available , at a price
and hard peakers point is also true that we are burning the easy stuff first

it leave the main issue in question , can enough financial means be freed to access those plentiful resources
how does removing those financial means affect the rest of countries economies ?
if , like the US or Canada , one is also a producer , then it's simply an internal displacement
some crisis somewhere while some sectors are doing better , not a major drama
if one is an importing country , thing get ugly .

as tita point out a sound economy rely on growth , at least equal to population growth

[ennui2]

I think it all depends on where you are on the food chain. For the bottom 3 billion or so, catastrophe is here.

But what KIND of catastrophe? There have always been more poor people than rich, right? The industrial revolution left much of humanity behind. Just the fact that the bottom of the pyramid is struggling doesn't mean "catastrophe" as in peak-oil or Malthusian doom is "here". It just means the world is keeping to spin the way it always has. Look at past catastrphes like starvation under Mao or the body-count of WWII. Attribution of suffering is critically important in assessing "crude oil peak dynamics". If it's not due to peak-oil, then the suffering of these billion are simply not relevant to the debate. You just can't keep hauling out starving Africans as a way to prove that peak-oil doom is here if there have been starving Africans for ages and always will be. Only if the situation significantly changes in response to LTG can you start to make these connections.

[SeaGypsy]

Actually the 3 billion figure is seriously misleading. The middle 5 billion have seen reasonably consistent improvements in real incomes (calorific value) for decades. The top billion is relatively a bunch of fat pigs, the bottom billion are in chronic food insecurity. Biggest looming issue is the global emerging proletariat are still having way too many children. They are busy enjoying boomtimes.

[ROCKMAN]

Speaking of folks at the bottom of the pyramid here are some who might get to see some significant improvement. Interesting that while Venezuela has been claiming Guyana they’ve done nothing to help those citizens and never did much to press their claims on the area. Partly because it had nothing to offer and in part because the world didn’t consider their claim valid. But now there’s a potential 700 million bbls of oil at stake. No Vz wants to embrace their Guyana “brothers”…brothers who have virtually nothing in common with the Vz people:

For generations, Venezuela has formally laid claim to most of its tiny neighbor, Guyana. Many dismissed the case, given Venezuela’s oil wealth and Guyana’s penury. Hugo Chavez, longstanding president of Venezuela, even let it slide, referring to the Guyanese as his brothers. Venezuela’s claim on Guyana’s land a century ago had a very different feel. It was a British colony until 1966; its citizens speak English and are descendants of African slaves, indentured Indian laborers and native peoples. In 1899, an international tribunal in Paris granted the disputed region, known as the Essequibo, to Guyana; Venezuela rejected the ruling. It amounts to two-thirds of Guyana which has been developing it with occasional outbursts from Venezuela. To be sure, gaining possession of Essequibo has long been a matter of national pride for Venezuelans, whose maps denote the area a “reclamation zone” drawn with dashed lines.

Then in May, Exxon Mobil Corp. revealed that under contract from Guyana it had found massive offshore oil and gas deposits. Chavez’s successor, Nicolas Maduro, demanded that the drilling stop because the area was Venezuela’s. He dismissed Guyana’s president, declared his statements “nauseating” and Guyana’s actions likely to “bring war to our border.” He withdrew his ambassador, and Guyana announced the end to a long-time rice-for-oil deal.

For Guyana -- which produces no oil and whose 800,000 inhabitants live with unpaved flooded roads and power outages -- the estimated offshore find of 700 million barrels promises a revolution, a shift from negligible food exporter to global energy dealer. The combined oil and natural-gas deposits appear to be worth $40 billion, at least 10 times the country’s gross domestic product. “We’ve gone through suffering for many decades and our time is due,” Raphael Trotman, minister of governance, said in an interview in his office on an unassuming road in the capital, Georgetown. The discovery is “transformational,” he said. “For us, there is no going back.” Ordinary Guyanese, who rely on Venezuelan oil, are giddy with anticipation. Staring at a potential jackpot, they also are livid with Maduro, accusing him of trying to evade his economic and political woes by coveting what belongs to them. “Just Being Greedy” “Chavez never fought and now Maduro?” said Otis Adams, a 42-year-old heavy-machine operator in the destitute border town of Mabaruma. “He’s a nobody, trying to pass off the worry of his people from all that killing and suffering -- he’s just being greedy.”

Venezuela has the world’s highest inflation, chronic shortages of consumer basics, including medicine and toilet paper, and a murder rate that surpasses Iraq’s. Parliamentary elections are in December, and Maduro’s socialist coalition may lose its majority for the first time in 16 years. “Why so suddenly?” asked Charlie Bees, about the renewed claim to large swathes of his country. “Maduro is losing votes!” explained the 52-year-old currency trader working near Georgetown’s port. It may seem to the Guyanese like a mere political diversion, but their president, David Granger, says Venezuela is causing real trouble. Intimidated Investors “Investors have been intimidated, development has been derailed, projects have been obstructed,” he said in a speech in Washington last month. “It is too much to bear for a country that has less than a million people.” Rather than halt its exploration activities, Guyana is moving forward, Guyana’s foreign minister, Carl Greenidge, said in an interview. The government expects it will take five to seven years for the first production. “We call upon the international community to help us develop within the internationally recognized borders, peacefully and without the burden of a neighbor whose actions serve to impoverish us and whose claim is based on what happened 200 years ago.” Edward Glab, who teaches at Florida International University in Miami, said the find was clearly of major significance for Guyana, even with oil approaching $40 a barrel.

There is an additional issue: Exxon is trying to collect a $1.6 billion award from Venezuela granted by a World Bank tribunal after Chavez nationalized a number of its assets. So there is also no love lost between Exxon and the Maduro government. Last month, Maduro met with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon to ask for help. Caricom, an economic association of Caribbean states, has sided with Guyana, as has Britain and the rest of the Commonwealth. Venezuela has been seeking backers for a negotiated settlement that could take a long time. Sadio Garavini di Turno, a former ambassador to Guyana and an adviser to the opposition, said Venezuela is not in a strong position, given international sentiment. Moreover, he said, an international court seems unlikely to rule for Venezuela. “In the international community in general, and therefore in the international tribunals, there’s a profound antipathy towards changing national borders because of historical injustice,” he said. “Think of how many borders around the world are unjust and how many borders would have to be changed.” Guyana has “strong international support, said Carlos Romero, professor of international relations at the Central University of Venezuela. While Venezuela wants mediated negotiations, Guyana prefers a tribunal where it probably will find a sympathetic hearing. Maduro insists military action is out of the question. As a result, Romero said, ‘‘Maduro is against the wall.