[DesuMaiden]

I'm certain the modern fossil fuel civilization will collapse in another couple of decades as fossil fuels become too scarce for us to use. There will be a several decade long transition period between the collapse of modern civilization and the beginning of a new civilization. This collapse will result in billions of people starving to death and dying of war. After the population stabilizes at a new, much lower number than the current population, a new civilization will emerge from the ashes of modern civilization.

What kind of civilization will emerge from the ashes of modern civilization? I believe it would be an agrarian civilization not much different from the civilization of the 18th century, except we might be using wind and solar energy. Will electrical appliances exist in this new civilization? I think many modern technologies will become impossible in this future civilization as fossil fuels are now nonexistent (or nearly nonexistent). For example, plastics will not exist in this future civilization unless it was plastics preserved from our modern civilization.

I believe this new civilization will be much more primitive than our modern civilization. It will have the technological abilities of the 18th century because it has the same resource base as the 18th century. Without fossil fuels, there is no way this future civilization can be as advanced as our civilization. As for government, I'm not sure what kind of government this new civilization will have. I believe we might return to feudalism again like in the middle ages.

I still have no idea what this post fossil fuel civilization will look like. But I believe it will resemble something akin to the past than some futuristic sci-fi civilization. Anyone got any ideas what a post fossil fuel civilization will look like?

[Shaved Monkey]

Modern civilisation is over rated.
How advanced are we that its all run on burning fossils in cast iron ?
The sooner it gets a kick up the bum the better,hopefully before the environment goes into melt down.

[GHung]

Greer's view of the future is probably as good as anyone's:

"With those cautions, here’s a narrative sketch of the kind of future that waits for us." (about halfway in):
http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot. ... fairy.html

Read his latest series of essays for more context.

[KaiserJeep]

Civilization will not end as long as the human race exists. Bit-perfect digital media do not forget, ever. This conversation in this thread will be part of digital history forevermore. Future search engines will peruse the archives of PO.com as a source of knowledge about one of the deflection points of history, where an energy-dependant human race moved off the limited planet and into the effectively unlimited habitat of Space.

[GregT]

where an energy-dependant human race moved off the limited planet and into the effectively unlimited habitat of Space.

Well then, we best get that warp drive perfected, and soon. The NEAREST star, using known technology, is a mere 166,000 years away.

No problem you say? They'll think of something, they always do.

[BobInget]

You all are ignoring Climate Change which, BTW, 'changes' everything.
Twenty years ago we exceeded limits needed to sustain climates that prevailed during pre machine age.

Because oil and gas, in particular gas are still in adequate supply, we need to accelerate conversions to renewable power resources. Not to 'save the planet' as most environmentalists insist but divert fossil fuel
use to abed massive construction projects such as those already in place in London and the Netherlands.

One example I'll pose. Saudi Arabia is an early solar adapter. KSA wells haven't pooped just yet
but Royal's advisors pointed out, what oil doesn't get burned to air-condition artificial ski slopes
could be exported instead. What oil saved making fresh water can be sold for more than desalinated.
This makes sense to ardent Tea Baggers and Oil companies alike.
(one can still be AGW denier and save money)

So, what will the US look like by the end of the century?
My guesses.
Digital cameras came along and decimated the old model of film and film processing.
The internet came along and millions 'cut the cord' from cable.. Like film, a 20th century staple.
ELECTRIC CARS will ultimately replace internal combustion engines. (ICE)

It's not that there aren't film camera still in use. I'll bet one can still buy film.. for now.
Millions still shell out $100. month for channels they will never, never, watch.
When the Tesla managed a 250 mile range, the jig was up for ICE.

"Atomic Power' never permitted customers to throw away their meters as promised.
I suspect within thirty years, buildings, even blocks of private homes will be powered by combinations
of fuel-cells and solar powered gas generators. Not just centrally located but in-house and devoid of hackable internet connections.

Drones spelled fini for maned fighter aircraft. Future aircraft carriers needn't be larger then today's submarines. In fact, they may actually BE subs.
We spend inordinate sums on weapons. The latest weapons though, show us the future.
Nuclear weapons... what purpose? OUT.
Battle-ships, like the modern aircraft carrier, OUT.
Cyber warfare..IN
Social Media is replacing on the ground professional war correspondents and print propaganda.
Tanks, armored vehicles.. excellent targets.
Economic warfare, Communism vs Capitalism, forgetaboutit.

In 2099 there will still be radios, urban farms, sexy may revert back to the thrill of a bare ankle.
Stay tuned.
Vast Armies of conscripts.. Over.

[Subjectivist]

I'm certain the modern fossil fuel civilization will collapse in another couple of decades as fossil fuels become too scarce for us to use. There will be a several decade long transition period between the collapse of modern civilization and the beginning of a new civilization. This collapse will result in billions of people starving to death and dying of war. After the population stabilizes at a new, much lower number than the current population, a new civilization will emerge from the ashes of modern civilization.

What kind of civilization will emerge from the ashes of modern civilization? I believe it would be an agrarian civilization not much different from the civilization of the 18th century, except we might be using wind and solar energy. Will electrical appliances exist in this new civilization? I think many modern technologies will become impossible in this future civilization as fossil fuels are now nonexistent (or nearly nonexistent). For example, plastics will not exist in this future civilization unless it was plastics preserved from our modern civilization.

I believe this new civilization will be much more primitive than our modern civilization. It will have the technological abilities of the 18th century because it has the same resource base as the 18th century. Without fossil fuels, there is no way this future civilization can be as advanced as our civilization. As for government, I'm not sure what kind of government this new civilization will have. I believe we might return to feudalism again like in the middle ages.

I still have no idea what this post fossil fuel civilization will look like. But I believe it will resemble something akin to the past than some futuristic sci-fi civilization. Anyone got any ideas what a post fossil fuel civilization will look like?

http://environment.about.com/od/greenli ... /a/pla.htm

PLA Helps to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Proponents also tout the use of PLA—which is technically “carbon neutral” in that it comes from renewable, carbon-absorbing plants—as yet another way to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases in a quickly warming world. PLA also will not emit toxic fumes when incinerated.

PLA Biodegrades Slowly Unless Subjected to Industrial Composting
But critics say that PLA is far from a panacea for dealing with the world’s plastic waste problem. For one thing, although PLA does biodegrade, it does so very slowly.

Lots more at the link. There used to be a thread about bioplastic from GMO corn around here but I couldn't find it.

[Kristen]

its easy to envision the worst, but those calling for doom in 1999 almost two decades ago provide an example (amongst many) the prophecies predicting mayhem come up short. Perhaps a more modest approach is necessary. In the year 2030....

More people will live in cities and our food will continue to become homogenous. The crops grown will be able to survive even soaking with herbicides five times more potent then what we see today. Species diversification on Earth is at a historic low and continues to plummet. Most animals alive are genetically modified and bred on farms. The wilderness, or areas once untouched by man shrink to insignificance in size as only a fourth of the Amazon remains untouched, most of which is infested with herbicide resistant weeds that drink three times the amount of water then normal plants.

Oil prices are around 180 a barrel. The newest fields are increasingly deepshore and from Iraq and Greenland, who glaciers continue to melt revealing new land. Other ventures such as deep ice drilling in Antartica are proposed but untested. Liquid fuel production is at 101 million per barrels a day. Coal is used mostly in Africa whose economies continue to become developed. Natural and solar are the largest producers of electricity.

It's anyone's guess the complexities that will exist then.

[ralfy]

One should also consider the point that most people worldwide earn only a few dollars and lack one or more basic needs.

[DesuMaiden]

One should also consider the point that most people worldwide earn only a few dollars and lack one or more basic needs.

Why does that matter.

[ralfy]

Why does that matter.

The implication is that most people worldwide can barely access most of the benefits of industrial civilization because they cannot afford them.

In which case, what will emerge in a post-oil world will resemble what has been taking place in most of the world for decades. Then it will worsen.

[JohnnyOnTheFarm]

Why does that matter.

The implication is that most people worldwide can barely access most of the benefits of industrial civilization because they cannot afford them.

Such people have always existed. And always will. Inequality in the human condition is as much the norm as the sun rising in the east.

[Tanada]

I'm certain the modern fossil fuel civilization will collapse in another couple of decades as fossil fuels become too scarce for us to use. There will be a several decade long transition period between the collapse of modern civilization and the beginning of a new civilization. This collapse will result in billions of people starving to death and dying of war. After the population stabilizes at a new, much lower number than the current population, a new civilization will emerge from the ashes of modern civilization.

What kind of civilization will emerge from the ashes of modern civilization? I believe it would be an agrarian civilization not much different from the civilization of the 18th century, except we might be using wind and solar energy. Will electrical appliances exist in this new civilization? I think many modern technologies will become impossible in this future civilization as fossil fuels are now nonexistent (or nearly nonexistent). For example, plastics will not exist in this future civilization unless it was plastics preserved from our modern civilization.

I believe this new civilization will be much more primitive than our modern civilization. It will have the technological abilities of the 18th century because it has the same resource base as the 18th century. Without fossil fuels, there is no way this future civilization can be as advanced as our civilization. As for government, I'm not sure what kind of government this new civilization will have. I believe we might return to feudalism again like in the middle ages.

I still have no idea what this post fossil fuel civilization will look like. But I believe it will resemble something akin to the past than some futuristic sci-fi civilization. Anyone got any ideas what a post fossil fuel civilization will look like?

Human beings cycle through six to eight stages of civilization repeatedly, and just like the Stages of Grief they will keep cycling as long as we remain human. Unfortunately the authoritarian stage is the most stable so we tend to spend 65 percent plus of our time in that stage. Your near future is almost certainly living in an authoritarian society.
post1005920.html

[ralfy]

Such people have always existed. And always will. Inequality in the human condition is as much the norm as the sun rising in the east.

It's not so much inequality that we should consider as the realization that for most the idea of industrial civilization has been barely attained.

[JohnnyOnTheFarm]

Such people have always existed. And always will. Inequality in the human condition is as much the norm as the sun rising in the east.

It's not so much inequality that we should consider as the realization that for most the idea of industrial civilization has been barely attained.

What do you mean? What has barely been attained?

[ralfy]

Such people have always existed. And always will. Inequality in the human condition is as much the norm as the sun rising in the east.

It's not so much inequality that we should consider as the realization that for most the idea of industrial civilization has been barely attained.

What do you mean? What has barely been attained?

An industrial civilization. Most people worldwide lack one or more basic needs, including running water, basic education, food, medicine, shelter, etc.

[JohnnyOnTheFarm]

What do you mean? What has barely been attained?

An industrial civilization. Most people worldwide lack one or more basic needs, including running water, basic education, food, medicine, shelter, etc.

Well, I guess this is an issue of scale then? Certainly there is a significant fraction of the world able to fly where they wish, travel in ways they couldn't without industrial civilization, eat food they would otherwise never experience, be vaccinated if their political system allows it, and quite a few of the "basics", and some extras as well, if cell phones are any indication.

I don't think "barely" characterizes it properly. Some folks are hobbled by their political system, they isn't a problem with industrial civilization barely being attained, but by their leadership deciding that they want folks impoverished because there is more for them. Now THAT shows up all over the place, First World and all the rest.

[ralfy]

Well, I guess this is an issue of scale then? Certainly there is a significant fraction of the world able to fly where they wish, travel in ways they couldn't without industrial civilization, eat food they would otherwise never experience, be vaccinated if their political system allows it, and quite a few of the "basics", and some extras as well, if cell phones are any indication.

I don't think "barely" characterizes it properly. Some folks are hobbled by their political system, they isn't a problem with industrial civilization barely being attained, but by their leadership deciding that they want folks impoverished because there is more for them. Now THAT shows up all over the place, First World and all the rest.

The issue isn't just scale because the only way for that fraction of the population to continue having access to more advanced needs as well as conveniences is to sell more goods and services to a growing market. That's why the global middle class is growing, as seen in increased consumption of material resources and energy for the rest of the world. And yet that class is still a minority, which is why "barely" describes the situation.

It is unlikely that most governments oppose this as they can maintain operations only through more tax revenues, and that means greater economic activity. That's why much of the global economy isn't controlled by governments but by private corporations, especially financial companies.

[ennui2]

Modern civilisation is over rated.

As modern civilization goes, so does modern medicine. Prepare for a life that is nasty, brutish, and short.