ian807 wrote:Worse, sudden price spikes will disrupt the supply chains of almost every industry...
The point of the thread is that the worlds oil shale deposits are such a huge undeveloped resource their development would amount to significant downward price pressure on overall petroleum prices. There are just too many fossil fuel energy options yet available to exploit. And really, since we want to phase out carbon intensive energy (such as oil shale, coal, etc.), these resources only have to last for as long as it takes to develop clean nuclear energy as per M. King Hubbert.
OIL SHALE ENERGETICS IN ESTONIA (pdf, '07)Oil shale is not a new discovery for the world. Similar to coal, it can be used directly as a fuel. The role of oil shale in the energy production is unknown to most people because its contribution to today’s world energy budget is minimal compared to such common known resources like petroleum and coal. However, the high price and declining petroleum supplies as well as rapidly increasing demand from the third world countries, is the reason why more frequent discussions about broader usage of oil shale are rising.
A huge and almost unused resource
Estimates of recoverable oil resources in the Earths crust amount to 160–170 billion tons. Considering the present annual output of 4 billion tons the explored resources can supply our needs for approximately 40 years.
Although information about many oil shale deposits is scarce, the potential world resources of shale oil are huge. Estimates of the volume of potential oil in the world oil shale deposits range from 530 to 1430 billion tons (Fig. 1). This is 3–9 times as much as the current proved oil reserves on the earth.
Estonia’s unique experience
There is no other country in the world that can meet almost 80% of its electric power needs from oil shale. Most of the oil shale mined in Estonia today is utilized as a feedstock for production of energy. Approximately 20% of the shales are used for fuel oil production and chemical manufacturing.
Eesti Energia AS (Estonian Energy) with its 500 000 customers and more than 8000 employees is the leading Baltic energy utility as well as one of the biggest companies in Estonia. Eesti Energia generates 95% of electric power produced in Estonia and has a yearly shale oil production of approx 130 thousand tons (Fig. 2).
The advantages of shale oil over heavy fuel oils are lower setting point, and lower content of sulphur and mechanical impurities, its low content of heavy metals, and the absence of vanadium. It is mostly used as fuel in both large and small boilers. The production of the Oil Factory amounted to 130,000 tons of shale oil in 2006.
The higher global prices of oil products in past years suggest that shale oil production will be increasingly profitable, and therefore a project for increasing the yearly production from 130,000 tons to 500,000 tons of shale oil is in progress. The plan is to expand shale oil production by erecting two new TSK 140 facilities as well as upgrading the current oil to a higher quality product. Of course the success of mentioned developments is very much dependent on the oil price of the world markets.
Wiki - Oil Shale IndustryA critical measure of the viability of oil shale as an energy source lies in the ratio of the energy produced from oil shale to the energy used in its mining and processing, a ratio known as "Energy Returned on Energy Invested" (EROEI). A 1984 study estimated the EROEI of the various known oil shale deposits as varying between 0.7–13.3[45] although known oil shale extraction development projects assert an EROI between 3 to 10.
With higher petroleum prices, oil shale is economical. The Eesti Energia company assured the Jordanian leaders that development of the country's huge shale deposits was economical at $65/barrel. This is a huge price moderating pressure on overall oil supplies, since shale deposits are enormous in other countries as well.
Apparently, there have been advances in shale-to-oil technologies that require less water use than in earlier times. Eesti Energia uses proven state-of-the-art oil shale technology and this is what has sold the Jordanians on EE's plans to develop that country's resources.