Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

[SeaGypsy]

This isn't the EV thread, though I can see the relevance, the EV is not necessarily central to discussions of moving beyond oil. I think the car has been iconized beyond sanity. Restructuring based on a combination of/ urbanization, open source grid feed systems, efficiency across the board. Much lighter, smaller vehicles, much shorter commutes, less people actually leaving the home to work, etc etc. These are what I see movement towards, which will eventually lead to another peak in resources more inescapable than peak oil. Copper, lead, rare earths.

[AgentR11]

One might have predicted the thirteen Saturn V moon rockets would someday go on to be the commuter plane of the future. But one would have been wrong.

And yet... stupid spacecraft with wings are being turned into museums, and private, commercial spaceflight via sane capsule and rocket configuration is now a reality.

[pstarr]

One might have predicted the thirteen Saturn V moon rockets would someday go on to be the commuter plane of the future. But one would have been wrong.

And yet... stupid spacecraft with wings are being turned into museums, and private, commercial spaceflight via sane capsule and rocket configuration is now a reality.

Low earth orbit, dude. Wanna go to the moon and back? Gotta go Saturn V. No other. First stage burn 15 tons-propellant/second. Need much more to get this to Mars for serious mining effort.



Is there an electric version? Would need a long cord.

[AgentR11]

Wanna go to the moon and back?

And back.... that is the sorry failure of our imagination and will.

Heavy lift is next. Small steps.

[Lore]

Wanna go to the moon and back?

And back.... that is the sorry failure of our imagination and will.

Heavy lift is next. Small steps.

Or just possibly no lift. The fickled finger of fate could just as easily deny any space future. My crystal ball is just as good as yours.

[AgentR11]

Need much more to get this to Mars for serious mining effort.

Mining on Mars for use not on Mars, or even any significant moon is pointless. It will always take more energy to lift the material than the material is worth.

Asteroids are ok, as long as you aren't in a hurry, and can prospect good candidates without going there, or at least without sending much mass to prospect. Long way off for that, and we'll probably run out the clock and miss the golden ring. Its funny in an electric thread though... one of the most propellant-mass efficient engines is an ion accelerator, which relies on electric power; and for getting a refined bar of Unobtainium back to Earth slowly and cheaply its pretty hard to beat. As long as you don't have any pesky mammals that need carting along too, that is...

[AgentR11]

Or just possibly no lift. The fickled finger of fate could just as easily deny any space future. My crystal ball is just as good as yours.

No doubt there. Seems like kinda a long shot at this point, but I like hopeful things sometimes, even when they look to be out of reach.

I just hope we weren't too late in making the thing with wings go away.

[GoIllini]

I think we will be running on natural gas for the next ~30 years.

The big question is whether we will build an infrastructure built around burning gas in internal combustion engines at 20% efficiency or burning gas at power plants at 45% efficiency (losing 5% in grid and electric motor losses) and powering your car off of that. Hybrids can connect to catenaries above or electrical rails in the roadbed, and run off of utility-supplied electricity at 20 cents/kwh instead of their own on-board gasoline engine (generator) at 6 kwh/gallon.

If we do that, we will put a lot more optionality into the system. When we run out of natural gas, we can disconnect the natural gas plants from the grid and stick a Gen II Fission plant in its place, or better yet an LFTR, fusion reactor, or solar plant. We don't need to know what the energy technology will be yet- just that there will be something. And we get twice as much propulsion out of the same natural gas by burning it using the power plant's 100MWe combined cycle turbine rather than using something less efficient that can fit under a car hood.