[AdamB]

Just because it was delayed by 10 years of funny money causing the "shale boom", that doesn't mean peak oil is a myth.

Peak oil is an axiomatic fact, as Hubbert built the concept. Production in a finite world starts at zero, and one day ends at zero, with a maximum somewhere along the way. No one debates that one in the least.

The wild consequences attached to it are what is a myth. As Rockman says, the timing is irrelevant. And as economists know, what truly matters is not the volume of supply, nor the timing, but the relationship between supply and demand and resulting market clearing price.

What the shale boom demonstrated is nothing more than the economists were right. And so was Mr Rockman for forming his POD idea around economics, and Mr Reserve for knowing what type of resource would come piling in for a particular price.

Maybe you could include some of these facts we've learned since the last peak oil hump in the US, or non-peak at the global level?

It is being caused by low prices, not high. That's what the peak oil community didn't understand.

Oh, I think it has been aptly demonstrated, the mind boggling amount the peak oil community didn't know a decade ago, and is now making up all kinds of wild ideas about, all to cover up what THEY didn't understand, but some key other players did.

Are you planning on calling any of those key other players, like the EIA, to ask why it was they weren't fooled like everyone else about the peak oil fears of a decade now, since buried under the flood of oil the shale revolution unleashed?

Now the delay is over. Hubbert's inexorable logic still holds sway!

Well, if you substitute a sine wave form for his bell shaped curve it sure does! But for folks like me who aren't particularly math inclined, even us folks can count the single hump of a bell shaped curve, versus the two the US now has, and ask even the most basic question....how many more might we expect? Just using other resources we have yet to develop, I'm betting on 2 others right now. Certainly those who fell for only 1 are..well..YOU know.

[ennui2]

Dude, you are like wearing a target on your face. All we need to do is paint concentric circles on the egg. Like shooting egg yolks in a barrel.

Adam is right as long as you time-box the analysis to when peak-oilers started saying the sky was going to fall up until shale actually goes into terminal decline (not drilling rigs going silent due to cheap oil).

As such, the egg is definitely on the face of peakers. You can say peakers can laugh last, but considering that they (including you) continue to toss out short-term predictions of doom, you risk more egg on the face still before getting your much needed final validation.

[AdamB]

It seems we can now all agree the earth is not a rich nougaty ball of abiotic oil? Right? The earth and its bounty is finite. Good work Adam. You get a Gold Star for your sweating mealy forehead

Do you even remember that not once have I said a word about abiotic oil, or are you playing the "reverse getting carried away" game now, whereby you just assemble strawmen and assign them randomly to folks?

[Revi]

What is going on with the world economy? It seems to be swooning, and that is a sign that the jig is up. We are headed into another kind of economy, where it has no use for resources. Look at what's down. Oil, timber, agriculture, etc.
I just heard that the loggers around here are handing their mortgages back to the bank because they can't make the payments. We are in trouble. Look around. Is this what peak oil looks like?

http://peakoilbarrel.com/oil-price-and- ... roduction/

[Tanada]

What is going on with the world economy? It seems to be swooning, and that is a sign that the jig is up. We are headed into another kind of economy, where it has no use for resources. Look at what's down. Oil, timber, agriculture, etc.
I just heard that the loggers around here are handing their mortgages back to the bank because they can't make the payments. We are in trouble. Look around. Is this what peak oil looks like?

http://peakoilbarrel.com/oil-price-and- ... roduction/

Revi I wish you all the best, but oil was selling at the highest price for the last 30 days today. If the current trend lasts just a few more days it will be selling at above any price this year. Granted the year is only two months done at this point, but I think you understand what I am getting at.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - As far what's going on with the global economies I'm beginning to think those warning about DEFLATION might have a point. Company A has a warehouse full of widgets that he had been selling at a nice profit. But the economy's demand for widget drops significantly due to a slow down. But that economy might still be showing a positive growth metric because that calculation depends on much more the widget production. Widget production that cuts way back while the widget makers sell their producr. Maybe selling below replacement cost for the sake of cash flow.Which also means they lay off employees. And laid off employees buy less so there's a ripple effect of some magnitude throughout the economy.

Not a big problem...until a lot of folks producing other products begin following the lath of the widget makers. And thus the reason some economists see deflation as a leading indicator of a potential recession.

And haven't we just see a huge deflation of a common product in most economies: oil. Much of which is being sold at a loss or at least at a price below replacement costs. Granted it's still early in the cycle but we've had lower oil prices for a while and not many signs of a big bump in the economy as might expect given oil consumers are transferring $2 TRILLION per year less to the oil producers then they were a couple of years ago. That should be $2 TRILLION going into either savings or other purchases. Granted the global economy is huger but $TRILLIONS are a lot also.

Just a thought.

[Revi]

I think the world economy went into a tailspin in 2008. They papered it over, and started the Frack-ing boom with lots of junk bonds, but it would not get going again. I think of it like a winning marathon runner who is past middle age, and has to get a heart transplant. He gets it, but can he become a winning marathoner again? Are we really back into a full healthy economy like back in the 60's and 70's? Can we really be that economy again? Back then the EROEI of oil was much better than it is today. We really should be powering down, to avert collapse, but I don't think we'll do that.

I think the amount of oil will actually drop in the near future. It will be harder and harder to get back to the level we were at last year because the base amount of oil will drop, and even if they do manage to get frack-ing going worldwide we will have peaked. Just a guess. They might get cold fusion going and we'll be good for another thousand years, but I wouldn't hold my breath...

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - Yes and no I suppose. The reserve replacement problem (I.e PO) has been the oil patch issue for more then 40 years. But in general the great majority of the public will never relate to the problem as PO per se but as the high price oil problem. That's the only component of the POD they can relate.

Perhaps you were too young at the time but in the late 70's much of the world was panicking over the PO although in their eyes it was the high f*cking price of oil and potential embargos by those "damn Arabs". LOL. PO, the POD or the reserve replacement problem: it was all the same dynamic just seen from different perspectives. A PO future was just as real in 1980 ($117/bbl) as it was in 1986 ($17/bbl) and in 2008 ($145/ bbl). But not in the view of the public that can only relate to the energy situation in terms of price.

[Revi]

Here's an article they wrote in the local paper about my obsession about Peak Oil. It is very well written, and I only come off as a whacko when they talk about how I think that it will herald the end of capitalism, which is not what I said exactly. That's okay.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2016/03/06 ... -new-film/

So we're making the film!

[Revi]

Here's a short vid we did on the movie.

It was picked up by a few crowd funding sites, and is on the radar, I guess.

http://thecrowdfundingcenter.com/videos/play?id=0B7FCC

[AdamB]

Here's a short vid we did on the movie.

It was picked up by a few crowd funding sites, and is on the radar, I guess.

http://thecrowdfundingcenter.com/videos/play?id=0B7FCC

Love the homemade EV, but it is time to upgrade to the real deal Iver!

Have the narrator stay away from the pek oil religious references, otherwise people might think it is just another one of those batty new age California religious type ideas, malthusian this, Ehrlich that.

[Revi]

I really don't know exactly what is going to happen with the film, but it's going to be a story of how I have come to grips with the reality of peak oil and have come out the other side. I think the home-made electric car was a part of the process. I learned about peak oil back in the late 90's, but denied it at first. Now it is happening, and it's far different from what I thought it would be. It is actually more like a slowly evolving crisis, and it will end up changing everything.

I think the timing of the movie is about right. If we had done it 2 years ago nobody would have believed it, and any earlier than that and we would have been too early to anticipate the Fracking boom.

[Revi]

The film will be shown tonight at 6pm at the local public library. The director has been editing until 12:42 last night, so it should be good. Here's the poster for it:



I am a little nervous about it, as it may not be received that well, but we'll see. I have one scene in which I am saying that it's ridiculous to be spending gas to go snowmobiling, with 4 trucks and trailers turning onto the highway. Snowmobiles are practically a religion around here, so it may not go over too well. I think a much better use of gas is to use it in a wood splitter, or in a chainsaw. Who knows? It was well received on Swan's Island. There is a great sense of humor and the director tells a great story, so it may be a success. We'll see...

[Revi]

Here's an article about it from a local newspaper:

http://www.centralmaine.com/2016/10/04/ ... n-library/

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - "Snowmobiles are practically a religion around here, so it may not go over too well. I think a much better use of gas is to use it in a wood splitter, or in a chainsaw." Don't take this personally. Not my words but playing the devil: "It's my money I use to buy my gas. So its none of your f*cking business." Of course not everyone will be that blunt. In fact some might give you positive feedback. But they may be having similar thoughts. Everyone makes what many would consider "bad choices"...me, you and everyone on this site.

Making a personal criticism, even if your target half way feels guilty about it, seldom changes someone's actions. Folks do many things they'll feel guilty about...but the still do it. In the case of the Rockman it's Blue Bell ice cream. LOL.

[AdamB]

I am a little nervous about it, as it may not be received that well, but we'll see.

As long as there isn't anyone in the audience who knows anything about oil, economics, past peak oils, Colin Campbell's claim of it in 1989, Jimmy Carter's infamous "running out" or is old enough to have been around for the rationing and REAL oil crisis of the 1970's, you should be fine.

I have one scene in which I am saying that it's ridiculous to be spending gas to go snowmobiling, with 4 trucks and trailers turning onto the highway. Snowmobiles are practically a religion around here, so it may not go over too well.

Certainly everyone who drove past a fuel station on their way to see a film about how peak oil a decade back was supposed to, you know, stopped their snowmobiles, might feel a little out of phase.

I think a much better use of gas is to use it in a wood splitter, or in a chainsaw. Who knows? It was well received on Swan's Island. There is a great sense of humor and the director tells a great story, so it may be a success. We'll see...

So the squirrels and local fisherman liked it? Good start! And the advantage in Skowhegan is that you won't be within 500 miles of an oil man or anyone with experience in the industry who would spot the parts that don't line up with how the oil industry has worked over the past couple centuries!

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - Hang in there. You offer a view based, at least in part, on common sense. But as been said many times: common sense ain't that common.

[Revi]

We had a nice crowd and a lot of discussion afterwards. Nelson Cole is great at telling a story. We got to see the film in as he said 95% completion. It will soon be done and sent out to the folks who helped with the kickstarter.

[Tanada]

I am a little nervous about it, as it may not be received that well, but we'll see.

As long as there isn't anyone in the audience who knows anything about oil, economics, past peak oils, Colin Campbell's claim of it in 1989, Jimmy Carter's infamous "running out" or is old enough to have been around for the rationing and REAL oil crisis of the 1970's, you should be fine.

I have one scene in which I am saying that it's ridiculous to be spending gas to go snowmobiling, with 4 trucks and trailers turning onto the highway. Snowmobiles are practically a religion around here, so it may not go over too well.

Certainly everyone who drove past a fuel station on their way to see a film about how peak oil a decade back was supposed to, you know, stopped their snowmobiles, might feel a little out of phase.

I think a much better use of gas is to use it in a wood splitter, or in a chainsaw. Who knows? It was well received on Swan's Island. There is a great sense of humor and the director tells a great story, so it may be a success. We'll see...

So the squirrels and local fisherman liked it? Good start! And the advantage in Skowhegan is that you won't be within 500 miles of an oil man or anyone with experience in the industry who would spot the parts that don't line up with how the oil industry has worked over the past couple centuries!

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