Pops wrote:Hi, ag. First EROEI is the energy efficiency of energy extraction. If not efficiency what else does it measure?
The group said Monday it had lowered its forecast for daily oil supply growth this year from non-member states by 72,000 barrels a day to 880,000 due to lower than expected output in the U.S. For next year, it trimmed its forecast by 110,000 barrels to 160,000.
GoghGoner wrote:If OPECs current forecast is right there will be no peak in 2015. I think non-OPEC supply will fall hard next year so I don't put much faith in this estimate.
OPEC cuts its oil production forecasts for US, other states not part of the cartelThe group said Monday it had lowered its forecast for daily oil supply growth this year from non-member states by 72,000 barrels a day to 880,000 due to lower than expected output in the U.S. For next year, it trimmed its forecast by 110,000 barrels to 160,000.
GoghGoner wrote:The EIA changed their US forecast for 2016 from -90 kbd to -520 kbd.
I was wondering what they were thinking, I guess they are listening
ROCKMAN wrote:sub - I was thinking that we might want to start making a distinction that we probably can't make: the "natural peak" vs the "artificial peak". Which themselves are difficult to define. But by example: a year ago we were producing X million bopd. So let's call that PO. But now we're producing even more. But it isn't so much that we've found that much more but the KSA and others have decided to produce the existing wells a little faster. That "excess capacity" thingy.
So next year they cut production. So now we call PO in 2015. But what if they open the wells up even more then they are producing now in 2017...or '18...or '20? Granted none of these up and down changes are very big. But jump in your Way-Back machine to 1979. Global oil production fell from the late 70's peak of 62 mm bopd to 54 mm bopd...a 13% drop. And we didn't get back above that "PO" for more than 15 years...around 1995.
As you know I don't tend to predict the future of nuthin. I'm much too smart because I know what I don't know. But look at how the cornies keep pointing out that the 2005 PO date some had predicted turned out wrong. But depending on how one defines PO maybe it wasn't wrong: maybe in 2005 the producers could have produced more oil then we're doing today. So now we're into the world of PPO and APO...Potential Peak Oil vs Actual Peak Oil.
Just what we need to confuse the sheeple: more f*cking acronyms. LOl.
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