vtsnowedin wrote:AdamB wrote:
People aren't going to choose to DIE because fuel gets expensive VT. They'll bitch...same as they did during the real energy crisis of the 1970's, same as they did during the faux peak oil of a decade ago. Some will walk, some will blame big oil and sell their house to keep driving their Suburban, and so on and so forth.
People won't choose to die, they will be killed by people and events they can't control.
Sure...same as they have for the past millennium. Nothing new here VT.
vtsnowedin wrote: The energy crisis of the 70's was a contrived very short term thing and does not compare to what is going to happen when the worlds oil production begins to decline.
Baloney. Oil shortages were real enough by 1977 that Jimmy was proclaiming not "gee this is contrived shortage and we'll get over it soon"...but "oil is running out by the late 1980's!!!".
Sure, you and I know that he was as stupid as the modern peakers, but that is hindsight. At the time, it was just as REAL to him as it was to peak oilers a decade ago. And now we know what happened to both of those claims...and just as Tony Seba has no fear of peak oil...why should any of the rest of us? Peak demand creates peak oil the same as peak supply...so kick back and in a few decades we'll know which one happened, or if they happened simultaneously. In the meantime, feel free to keep using liquid fuels. After having watched the wife for a few years now, I'm thinking she is on to something.
vtsnowedin wrote:
It will go on year on year and bitching wont help put food on the table. Wars will be fought over the remaining supplies and genocides will happen with increased frequency.
Heard that one before VT. And then peak oil happened (lots of people said so!) and it didn't turn out to be as expected. Here is the standard of what was expected. Just like you are calling it now. Think it will happen next peak oil, really? Maybe the 2nd or 3rd one from now?
vtsnowedin wrote: The US being rich and having a good chunk of that remaining supply will be a target and we will have to defend ourselves. China is not building up it's military to pick on the Vietnamese or Taiwan. Each of us will do a lot more then park an SUV and convert it into a chicken coop.
The good news being, that the last time it was claimed we were running out...we didn't have to defend ourselves then...so if you are playing the rinse and recycle game,it would make more sense to figure that maybe historical precedent is more important. Price goes up, things change, nobody fights for oil (can you believe we've invaded like HALF the middle east over past 25 years or so, and didn't even steal their oil?
) and then the production response to price does its thing.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"