[copious.abundance]

As I thought out loud in another thread.....they are ALL now conflating Total Liquids with Crude production.

Sickening.

No, you are wrong. They are NOT conflating Total Liquids with Crude production.

Shale boom confounds forecasts as U.S. set to pass Russia, Saudi Arabia

Four years into the shale revolution, the U.S. is on track to pass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world's largest producer of crude oil, most analysts agree. When that happens and by how much, though, has produced disparate estimates that depend on uncertain factors ranging from progress in drilling technology to the availability of financing and the price of oil itself.

Forecasts for U.S. shale oil production vary from an increase of 7.5 million barrels per day by 2020 – almost doubling current domestic output of 8.5 bpd -- to a gain of 1.5 million bpd, or less than half of what Iraq now produces.

Notice they say crude oil. And notice the forecasts for the increases range from 7.5 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd. Even the lower one would bring us to 10 million bpd, which would bring us in line with both Russia (currently about 10.1 million bpd) and KSA (currently about 9.7 million bpd).

[AirlinePilot]

I have no trouble admitting freely that I may very well be completely wrong about that prediction. We will have to wait and see. The jury remains out on what happens over the next few years with tight oil, specifically US tight oil.

As time moves forward though it really doesnt matter. Despite these boom times for tight oil, the end result isnt changed much at all. We still face a very serious problem with GNE and as the majority of the older fields continue depletion and decline the small cushion of time that tight oil buys us is being wasted. It doesnt matter a hill of beans what US production is or who is number one on the planet, when globally we are struggling mightily to grow at very low rates despite very high prices.

[ROCKMAN]

AP - Sad but so true. As far as predicting the future I’ll leave that to folks who think they are smart enough to do so. LOL. But I have discovered a way to escape this endless debate over exactly what liquid hydrocarbons we’re producing and how one group or another does the accounting.
If you’ve seen my posts you’ve seen that the world is producing more refined products these days than ever before: gasoline, diesel, etc. From that standpoint I don’t see how it matters much how much this type or that typed of oil is produced: the world’s economies, just like your aircraft, runs on refined products…not oil. And that’s what critical to 99% of the population.

It’s been a great relief. I don’t care much anymore about what C+C means or doesn’t mean. LOL. Come on in...the water feels fine.

[Pops]

Actually it makes a big difference.

It doesn't matter a whit how much unleaded is produced if I can't afford it.

It obviously doesn't matter how much ultra light oil and condensate is fracked if that isn't what the refineries are set up to process.

Gasbuddy told me so.

[Plantagenet]

...If you’ve seen my posts you’ve seen that the world is producing more refined products these days than ever before: gasoline, diesel, etc. From that standpoint I don’t see how it matters much how much this type or that typed of oil is produced: the world’s economies, just like your aircraft, runs on refined products…not oil. And that’s what critical to 99% of the population.

It’s been a great relief. I don’t care much anymore about what C+C means or doesn’t mean. LOL.

IMHO, its still important to track what oil comes from what source. The original "peak oil" predictions were based on peaking of "conventional" oil fields. The slowly growing oil production we are seeing today is due to oil from fracking and C+C and biofuels being added to the conventional oil.

Its quite important to break out the conventional oil production---which has peaked---from the unconventional oil production in order to better understand just what is going on in terms of global peak oil.

[KaiserJeep]

Actually it makes a big difference.

It doesn't matter a whit how much unleaded is produced if I can't afford it.

-snip-

True that. I drove by the corner gas station and remarked to the wife that I never expected to see the price of regular unleaded gasoline below $4/USG again.

That alone is enough to break our economy. The problem with every advance in fuel economy and EV technology and other transportation tech is that we have 260 million ICE powered vehicles and can never afford to replace more than a quarter of them.

Everybody should buy a nice bicycle while they are still affordable.

[americandream]

AP - Sad but so true. As far as predicting the future I’ll leave that to folks who think they are smart enough to do so. LOL. But I have discovered a way to escape this endless debate over exactly what liquid hydrocarbons we’re producing and how one group or another does the accounting.
If you’ve seen my posts you’ve seen that the world is producing more refined products these days than ever before: gasoline, diesel, etc. From that standpoint I don’t see how it matters much how much this type or that typed of oil is produced: the world’s economies, just like your aircraft, runs on refined products…not oil. And that’s what critical to 99% of the population.

It’s been a great relief. I don’t care much anymore about what C+C means or doesn’t mean. LOL. Come on in...the water feels fine.

Exactly! And I have been trying to bang the adaptability of this socio-economic system into peoples heads from day one. Our problems are piling up with the spread of this economic base to billions more planet wide.

[ROCKMAN]

Outsailing - "... is it fair to blame them?". IMHO...yes. I'll keep it simple: what's more important to you (and the vast majority of Americans): how much oil the US produces or what it costs you to fill up your gas tank? Today it cost you more then twice as much to do it then before the shale boom and production increase. The only reason that we're producing more oil today is that the US consumer is paying over $600 billion per year today compared to the $225 billion when we were producing less and importing more. And this is a reason for enthusiasm by some media talking heads...why? I know why I'm enthusiastic: I'm getting my share of some of those hundreds of $billions the public is additionally paying.

[Timo]

Outsailing - "... is it fair to blame them?". IMHO...yes. I'll keep it simple: what's more important to you (and the vast majority of Americans): how much oil the US produces or what it costs you to fill up your gas tank? Today it cost you more then twice as much to do it then before the shale boom and production increase. The only reason that we're producing more oil today is that the US consumer is paying over $600 billion per year today compared to the $225 billion when we were producing less and importing more. And this is a reason for enthusiasm by some media talking heads...why? I know why I'm enthusiastic: I'm getting my share of some of those hundreds of $billions the public is additionally paying.

You're welcome! I don't suppose i could talk you into a kickback on my contributions to the cause.

[ROCKMAN]

Timo - I wish I could lend a hand but that require the matter becoming personal. And we can't have that. LOL. I tease about it, which might irritate some folks. But I do it to offset those warm and fuzzy ads Chevron et al put out. Our efforts have nothing to do with patriotism, helping out mankind, etc. etc. If some of that manifests itself it would just be a happy coincidence. We really aren't evil or uncaring. But OTOH the well being of the world isn't our responsibility. It's the responsibility of the voters via the politicians. The US oil patch is very good to following the rules (ignoring brain farts like BP had at Macondo). The gov't, elected by the people, makes the rules we follow. In Texas we follow the rules that allows to frac wells just like the companies in NY that follow the rules that don't allow frac'ng.

[Keith_McClary]

Notice they say crude oil.

And surely Reuters writers understand the distinction between crude and total liquids.

[Keith_McClary]

the well being of the world isn't our responsibility.

Yes it is. Sorry, couldn't resist.