For those of you who haven't read the
National Climate Assessment report, I extracted a portion of the expected rainfall change from the Water sector.
Annual average precipitation over the continental U.S. as a whole increased by close to two inches (0.16 inches per decade) between 1895 and 2011., In recent decades, annual average precipitation increases have been observed across the Midwest, Great Plains, the Northeast, and Alaska, while decreases have been observed in Hawai‘i and parts of the Southeast and Southwest (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Figure 2.12). Average annual precipitation is projected to increase across the northern U.S., and decrease in the southern U.S., especially the Southwest. (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Figures 2.14 and 2.15).
The number and intensity of very heavy precipitation events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012) have been increasing significantly across most of the United States. The amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest daily events has also increased in most areas of the United States (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Figure 2.17). For example, from 1950 to 2007, daily precipitation totals with 2-, 5-, and 10-year average recurrence periods increased in the Northeast and western Great Lakes., Very heavy precipitation events are projected to increase everywhere (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Figure 2.19). Heavy precipitation events that historically occurred once in 20 years are projected to occur as frequently as every 5 to 15 years by late this century., The number and magnitude of the heaviest precipitation events is projected to increase everywhere in the United States (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Figure 2.13).
Groundwater Availability
Groundwater is the only perennial source of fresh water in many regions and provides a buffer against climate extremes. As such, it is essential to water supplies, food security, and ecosystems. Though groundwater occurs in most areas of the U.S., the capacity of aquifers to store water varies depending on the geology of the region. (Figure 3.6b illustrates the importance of groundwater aquifers.) In large regions of the Southwest, Great Plains, Midwest, Florida, and some other coastal areas, groundwater is the primary water supply. Groundwater aquifers in these areas are susceptible to the combined stresses of climate and water-use changes. For example, during the 2006–2009 California drought, when the source of irrigation shifted from surface water to predominantly groundwater, groundwater storage in California’s Central Valley declined by an amount roughly equivalent to the storage capacity of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States.
Climate change impacts on groundwater storage are expected to vary from place to place and aquifer to aquifer. Although precise responses of groundwater storage and flow to climate change are not well understood nor readily generalizable, recent and ongoing studies,,, provide insights on various underlying mechanisms:
Precipitation is the key driver of aquifer recharge in water-limited environments (like arid regions), while evapotranspiration (ET) is the key driver in energy-limited environments (like swamps or marshlands).
Climate change impacts on aquifer recharge depend on several factors, including basin geology, frequency and intensity of high-rainfall periods that drive recharge, seasonal timing of recharge events, and strength of groundwater-surface water interaction.
Changes in recharge rates are amplified relative to changes in total precipitation, with greater amplification for drier areas.
With these insights in mind, it is clear that certain groundwater-dependent regions are projected to incur significant climate change related challenges. In some portions of the country, groundwater provides nearly 100% of the water supply (Figure 3.6b). Seasonal soil moisture changes are a key aquifer recharge driver and may provide an early indication of general aquifer recharge trends. Thus, the observed regional reductions in seasonal soil moisture for winter and spring (Figure 3.3) portend adverse recharge impacts for several U.S. regions, especially the Great Plains, Southwest, and Southeast.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.