Hey Pstarr,
I was as down as you about 10 years ago. GM had killed the EV1, lots of GW deniers, and too much BAU. I fought them. I'm going solar and the numbers are working for me. I figure I can generate about 95% of my winter time heat energy. Maybe that is too optimistic. It is going to cost $$s but if we are running out, what else is there? I also run the numbers to see if there is a payback. 30 to 40 years is a long time but the number is positive. It can be a lot less by refueling an EV.
I have no illusions that things can get rough but part of getting through this mess is preparing -- mentally. The 23rd Psalm has always been there when times have gotten tough but I am not eat up with religion. "The Lord is my Shepherd, I shall not want..." Some think a Smith and Wesson plan also helps.
I ran some numbers where I asked the question (and without political overtones): What would the $1.7 trillion spent on the Iraq war buy us toward energy independence? I wrote this a while back:
In some ways, this is a “no-brainer”. For instance, the purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been $1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12). Disregarding whether we should have been there or not, what those funds buy us in terms of installing solar panels for recharging electric vehicles? What does a “back of the envelope” set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further?
Assume for discussion purposes:
1) Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref:
http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts). The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2.
2) Each panel costs $1250 installed which is $5/watt for a commercially installed panel.
3) Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day. This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all. The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions. Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater.
(Ref:
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/ns ... book/atlas)
4) How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.?
• Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles.
• Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles.
• A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr.
• A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average
To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so:
$1.7 x 10^12 * 250w panel * 1 kw * 1 hr * 2 kwhr sol m^2/day * 3 mi
$1250 panel 10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/day kwhr
This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles.
How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan?
Assume for discussion purposes:
1) The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD). In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD.
2) Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline. This is close to the actual production figure.
To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so:
20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day
We drive roughly 7.2 billion miles per day.
21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles driven per day produces a rough factor of 3 (x10^-3). If we multiply 2.04 billion electric only miles driven times this factor, we would equate this to using about 6 million BOPD. This is roughly the amount of our oil imports.
While a $1.7 trillion dollar investment in solar panels will not be a substitute for all the oil we use, it would likely reduce our energy consumption by 6 million BOPD; enough for us to be ‘energy independent’.
How long would it take to pay this investment off?
If electricity, through net metering, is $1.00 per 10 kwhr and gasoline is $4 per gallon, and a vehicle can be driven the same amount of miles on either 10 kwhr of electricity or 1 gallon of gasoline, the difference is $3.00 which would be allocated to paying off the $1.7 trillion dollar investment.
We use 360 million gallons of gasoline a day, (20 million BOPD * 18 gallons/Barrel). $1.7 x 10^12/(0.360 gallons x 10^9 * 3) = 1.574 x 10^3 days or 4.31 years. Not too shabby.
This is a very simplistic scenario where a lot of details and other costs that have to be worked out such as the cost of a pack; electrical storage, production, and transmission issues; (in)efficiency issues; weather related issues (the sun does not always shine); and utility regulatory/business issues. The bottom line is that this looks like it is doable financially with potentially solvable issues.
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The numbers are conservative but they give me more hope that we can transition to a solar based era.
After that, GM announced that their scientists have found a way to store "5 to 8" times the amount of energy in a Lithium Sulphur battery as compared to a converntional Lithium Ion battery. If this is so, then this is a major game changer. The battery will be cheaper and use a lot less Lithium per kg. To give you an idea of what this means, a Tesla model S would be able to go 1325 miles on a charge instead of 265 miles. Their 85 kwhr pack would store 425 kwhr. To put that into perspective, before my solar installations, I was using about 1200 to 2200 kwhrs/month. So this pack would be able to store a 1/6 to 1/3 of my **monthly** usage before solar. Enough to cover a lot of cloudy days and still drive (or bike) to pick up a gallon of milk
I am a lot more hopeful than I was 10 years ago but I am reminded that the results of a rain dance is all in the timing...