[Newfie]

FWIW

I agree it's too late.

I also believe it's not within humanities collective abilities to either control our population or make necessary adjustments.

Whether it works or not we are working on our preps. Focusing on flexibility for the downward road will be makes by chaos. But not with a hair shirt. I agree it it very important to find joy where you can.

[Pops]

Happy B-Day Pete, our very own Don Rickles of Doom.

What I'm really trying to say is that, all your smug assertions to the contrary, no vesper, vetrox, or prius is going to make a hell of a difference. You've still got to recharge with oil, commute on tar roads, eat oil food, play oil x-box games, wear oil clothing, and take oil medicine.
...

That kind of post-modern, dark-square-sunglass, pegged pants, italian image thing might be off. Think donkey.

Pete has been harassing the folks who said "Tut, tut, everything will be fine" more or less consistently since the beginning. When he started posting here, real estate values never deflated, equity markets had realized perfect price discovery, the unemployment rate for men was getting close to 4%, oil production was increasing 3-4% per year and so was US consumption, the price was under $40/bbl and Yergin rhapsodized:

There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase.

Westexas WaPo

.
Salute!
.

[noobtube]

It's actually kind of infuriating when people say it's too late.

People have been saying that since the 1970s, so they can live irresponsible, trash-spreading, self-indulgent, war-mongering, selfish, arrogant lives.

Many cultures around the world have a connection to their lands and act responsibly.

Not Americans.

With Americans, the motto is, not my fault, as they slide their fat, wide asses, into their SUVs, to buy some gas, to go to the Sprawl-Mart, to buy some useless, plastic-wrapped junk, that they will end up in the trash after 1 week. All the while, as they burn their gas, that was stolen from Mexico or Canada, playing their new electronic toy made with near slave labor in East Asia, wearing their cheap clothes made with real slave labor from Southeast Asia, and smack their mouth on imitation food from the fast food drive-thru, they think to themselves how it's no one's fault, and everyone would have done the same anyway, so, may as well keep behaving like a Grade-A asshole, because everyone acts like Americans do.

I really do despise Americans.

[Herr Meier]

Many cultures around the world have a connection to their lands and act responsibly.

Hahaha. Like who?

[Northwest Resident]

Heir Meir -- I disagree with your statement that there is nothing we can do to prepare. But I'm an optimist. Your statement would tend to be defeatist -- and reminds me of Lord Denethor's admonishment to choose whatever way of dying seems best for you (Lord of the Rings).

At a minimum:

1) Get out of or away from the big cities -- or at least have a quick get-out-of-the-city plan and a known destination
2) 3 month food supply is inadequate -- one year's worth is far better
3) Guns/ammo and mental conditioning and practice using them to protect your food/survival supply from those who took your advice and failed to prepare
4) Know-how and ability to grow your own food, and lots of it -- you need seed, practical experience, good soil, protected or not-likely-to-be-noticed place to grow your food
5) Know-how and supplies and ability to long-term preserve the food you grow
6) Good health -- excellent physical fitness

And more.

It wasn't me who predicted a world of "peace and beauty" after TSHTF. Who made that prediction? I predict a dangerous and barren world, full of uncertainty, unforgiving, one where trust must be judiciously placed. Hard core survival regimen on a day-to-day basis, always on the alert -- that's what I predict. Maybe after a period of time there will be some local community initiatives for those who survived the first year or two, maybe not. But if you don't want to survive or don't really care if you do or don't, then the attitude of "there is nothing you can do to prepare -- all hope is lost" will get you there faster than a can-do attitude, that's for sure.

[JuanP]

My wife and I have lived our lives in a simple way. We are focused on needs and simple pleasures. Our main hobbies are packrafting, fishing, woodcrafting, and hammock camping. My wife is also a black belt in three different fighting styles, Thai boxing, Taekwondo, and kickboxing, and a Bikram Yoga teacher. Our hobbies are essentially free other than buying hooks and sinkers now and then.
We have food, water, and emergency supplies, but no weapons and no land at this time. We also work on useful skills. We try to enjoy life now as much as possible, knowing this won't last, and we prepare for the worst.
Living on a condo in Miami Beach, we know this place is hanging by a thread, and at some point something will have to give. With 10 million people, nuclear reactors similar to the Fukushima ones on the shore, desalinators, and hurricanes this will not be a good place during the fall. We intend to leave before the crowds, so I try to stay well informed.

[WildRose]

Ah, pstarr, you have made me laugh and think with your posts more times than I could count. You're a wise guy, in more ways than one! But please keep up the good work.

[Herr Meier]

1) Get out of or away from the big cities -- or at least have a quick get-out-of-the-city plan and a known destination

The only time you need to get out of the city fast is after a disaster. If it's no disaster you can take your time. And it's questionable if life in the country will be better than in a city, btw. Life in Mosul might be better than in some outside shithole where ISIS-morons visit you weekly to tell you bedside stories about mohamed.

2) 3 month food supply is inadequate -- one year's worth is far better

3 month is enough to survive a disaster. If you don't get supplies back within 3 month, it is likely that 1 year won't be enough either, unless you're fully prepared to grow your own.

3) Guns/ammo and mental conditioning and practice using them to protect your food/survival supply from those who took your advice and failed to prepare

Doomer/bunker nonsense. Do you think if ISIS type gangs roam the backland you will be able to defend yourself against them?

4) Know-how and ability to grow your own food, and lots of it -- you need seed, practical experience, good soil, protected or not-likely-to-be-noticed place to grow your food

If you don't have access to tools, repair parts, seeds, canning equipment, saws, root cellers etc etc, you won't make it very long (2 or 3 years maybe). If the distruption in society is so bad, that you will have to grow your own food on a subsistence level, chances are very high that you won't get any supplies at all.

But if you don't want to survive or don't really care if you do or don't, then the attitude of "there is nothing you can do to prepare -- all hope is lost" will get you there faster than a can-do attitude, that's for sure.

Not sure if you're a city slick. However maybe you need to get a 1 or 2 year hands-on experience in subsistence farming to see how much work it is, even with power tools and spare parts and supplies readily available.

[Northwest Resident]

Herr Meier:

We're talking about disaster here as in TSHTF. If the global economy crashes, it would be far better to be away from a big city. If you don't understand why, then let's just move on rather than trying to hash it out.

Assuming a global economic crash -- end of BAU -- occurs, how are the ISIS gangs going to get out into the countryside? Ride horses? Walk? Steal whatever few gallons of gasoline they can find so they can roam the countryside terrorizing people and commandeering their food/supplies? What makes you think those desperate, starving ISIS gangs won't be met head-on by even better armed country boys?

I am fully prepared to grow my own food and be self-sufficient. I grow wheat, potatoes, beans, onions, garlic, lots and lots of corn, kale, assorted spices, tomatoes, carrots. I perpetuate my own seed. I know how to preserve it for long term storage. I work like a dog on it. I have my own worm fertilizer factories going. In a few months I'll have my own bee hive. I have mature laying hens that produce 4 - 6 eggs per day currently. Out here were I live, there are numerous fruit and nut orchards --huge ones -- and in a collapse scenario I'll be paying visits to those orchards when the time is right, all sources of very nutritional and sustaining food. There are acres and acres of naturally growing blackberries and blue berries. Oh, also, around where I live is major vineyard land -- there are many hundreds and probably thousands of acres of grapes that grow all on their own without irrigation. Yes, I do fully plan to provide food for myself and my close ones. And power tools? No, I do it all the old-fashioned way.

Guns/ammo is "Doomer/bunker nonsense"??? Only to you. I'll match my "ISIS type gang" against any other random ISIS type gang that comes our way, and they better be good. Hell yes I and my friends/neighbors/associates will be able to defend ourselves against them. Not that any kind of armed group like that will ever make it out my way, but in a collapse scenario we'll be watching and waiting for them just in case.

"If you don't have access to tools, repair parts, seeds, canning equipment, saws, root cellers etc etc, you won't make it very long (2 or 3 years maybe). If the distruption in society is so bad, that you will have to grow your own food on a subsistence level, chances are very high that you won't get any supplies at all."

Already got that completely handled, thanks for mentioning it. What? You don't? Could it be that "ah screw it we're all gonners anyway so why even try" mentality that you're displaying?

People with your attitude aren't likely to make it. I can see why you have your pessimistic about your own chance of survival, given the way you think. But rest assured that a lot of people are determined to still be standing once the smoke of collapse clears away, and because they *think* they can survive it, they're making all the preparations needed to do so. Seeing people like you who try to say that any preparation is just a waste of time just makes me think that you're one of those who'll be worm food sooner rather than later. Come on, man, where's your fighting spirit?!

[Herr Meier]

it would be far better to be away from a big city.

debatable. I'm not so sure about that. But again I'm also not sure that life in the city would be better. My bet is that it will be miserable wherever you are. (just for the records, I'm country boy, and as such I can see first hand how much input in the form of tools, equipment, spare parts, fuel etc country needs).

Assuming a global economic crash -- end of BAU -- occurs,

super unlikely, much more likely is decades if not centuries slide down.
And picture this, in only 2 decades you will probably be old and tired of your hard manual labor. Now assume the slide down takes 40 years. Are you going to plant corn at the age of 80?

I am fully prepared to grow my own food .....[stuff deleted] No, I do it all the old-fashioned way.

I congratulate you on your effort and achievement. However please consider what you call a "total collapse" and picture that you cannot get ANY outside input anymore. Nothing. Honestly, how long can you get things done? And I'm asking this because I'm looking at my own situation based on my own experience. Even the most simple activities will need input. Even your trusted canning glasses break and need replacement. Even your simple hammer handle will break. And that's only the simple stuff. Add some more complex (but still manual machines) into the mix and it's only a question of time till it breaks. I grow 100 acres of sun flowers to make bio-diesel on my property and I very quickly realized how dependent this operation is to outside input in the form of machines, equipment, tools, chemicals etc etc.

Guns/ammo is "Doomer/bunker nonsense"???

yes it is.

I'll match my "ISIS type gang" against any other random ISIS type gang that comes our way,

Good luck. Whereas ISIS-moron's fulltime job is plundering and marauding, your fulltime job will be farming/fixing/building. You won't have the time, energy, experience for a war.
BTW, although ISIS might be the currently best know moron-gang, there's plenty other gangster clubs terrorizing small villages in most part of the world, Africa, Asia, South America. Are those villagers all pussies? Maybe you should teach them how to juggle the dual career of farmer/fighter? You might make a killing and you won't need to do subsistence farming anymore.

You don't? Could it be that "ah screw it we're all gonners anyway so why even try"

Thank God I don't fall for the bunker idea.
But you got me wrong, I'm sure some people will survive. But it won't me, and I don't mind.
Maybe my kids or my kids kids?

People with your attitude aren't likely to make it.

That's true. BUT (AND THIS IS IMPORTANT): You, too, are a mortal and you won't make it. Because there's nothing to make. A long life doesn't mean a better life.
There will come the day when you and I will get ill, weak, and tired. And you will realize that you won't have the time or energy left to do so many things you were hoping to do in life.
It is my personal hope that on that day I can look back and say I did what I wanted to do.

[Loki]

Nice to see the purveyors of INSTA-DOOM!!!! and TOTAL COLLAPSE!!!! are still peddling their silliness after 10 years of PO.com. Keeps me warm at night knowing some things never change

[Pops]

Not sure what is supposed to happen when you right-click the chart but if you click this:

http://www.prienga.com/blog/

it takes you to Princeton Energy - AKA: Steven Kopits

[Newfie]

We MAY get total global collapse, IMHO this ebola thing has that capacity.

But baring that we could more likely have a series of local collapses. In fact I suspect you could consider the whole "Arab Spring" thing a bunch on localized collapses. Maybe even the Ukrainian situation, I dunno.

California,may well be heading in that direction ( over another year or two) due to the drought. I know there is enough for every one to drink. But there isn't enough water to keep the agricultural based economy going which is likely enough to break CA's back sending millions eastward looking for work.

You can prep for these localized collapses.

[Loki]

Nice to see the purveyors of INSTA-DOOM!!!! and TOTAL COLLAPSE!!!! are still peddling their silliness after 10 years of PO.com. Keeps me warm at night knowing some things never change

I don't know how silly it is. The world economy is on the verge of collapse.
http://static.squarespace.com/static/530bc001e4b0252b6af38e8d/t/54219ddee4b05046224d945b/1411489246637/Oil%20Majors%20FCF%20(Sept.%202014).png?format=750w
(right-click for a view of future misery) There is nothing crazy about considering outcomes or entertaining personal solutions.

There's a world of difference between another global economic spasm and OH MY GOD WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!

McPherson's ridiculous die-off hypothesis and the above discussion of what we used to call Mutant Zombie Bikers belong in the latter category. Scenarios that are so exceptionally improbable that they aren't worth bothering with.

Though I can't imagine how useful 3 months of MRE or imaginary safe places really are in the face of systemic chaos.

Food stores will be useful for someone when they lose their job in the wake of the Greater Recession, which I agree is likely to come sooner rather than later. It's also a good idea to have some food put by in case of less dramatic disruptions due to natural disasters, etc.

Not sure what you mean by "safe places," but I thought you've been arguing for years that the "Redwood Curtain" is unassailable. Have you changed your mind? Worried about what will happen to your local economy when weed is legalized?

[Loki]

We MAY get total global collapse, IMHO this ebola thing has that capacity.

But baring that we could more likely have a series of local collapses. In fact I suspect you could consider the whole "Arab Spring" thing a bunch on localized collapses. Maybe even the Ukrainian situation, I dunno.

California,may well be heading in that direction ( over another year or two) due to the drought. I know there is enough for every one to drink. But there isn't enough water to keep the agricultural based economy going which is likely enough to break CA's back sending millions eastward looking for work.

You can prep for these localized collapses.

Your point on localized collapse is right on. That geographic perspective is usually lost by those suggesting we're in store for a total, sudden, and permanent collapse at a global, civilizational scale.

We're certainly seeing lots of chaos in Egypt, Ukraine, et al., but I don't take these regional disturbances as irrefutable evidence of an imminent global collapse. The 19th and 20th centuries were chock full of social and political disorder, much of which was far more intense than what we're seeing right now. Hell, 80 years ago Stalin was starving the Ukranians to death by the millions.

There will be degrees of "collapse," varying from place to place and time to time. When the global economy slips into another recession, Central Congo may experience this as total collapse, and may very well face roving bands of MZBs (if they don't already), while suburban Peoria may just have a 15% unemployment rate and rising food stamp participation rates.

Re. Ebola, even worst case scenario it's just another drag on the global economy, much like the 1918-19 global flu pandemic, which was far worse than Ebola could ever possibly be. But the last thing this global economy needs is another drag.

[Subjectivist]

Something to keep in mind. Modern civilization is predicated on global trade with resources going one way and consumer goods going the other direction. If you knock enough of the players out of the game the network comes apart.