The EIA says we have a couple more years of growth in US LTO, Laherrere says a few more months. I've not heard any big news about fracking taking off elsewhere. So really the only growth after that will come from the x-heavy and tar sands and increases there will have no chance to keep up with decline and depletion of the super giants where most of supply comes from.
Natural gas E&P will come back with higher prices this year I'd imagine, it makes great sense to frack tight rocks for gas and we'll get additional NGPLs as a byproduct - most of that is not a substitute for crude even though it is counted as if it were nowadays. I just hope it is as widespread as the PR reposters preach and isn't likewise a flash in the pan.
There is no doubt in my mind we are at the peak of production of the conventional oil trapped in big "pools" just waiting for Jed's bullet. The only question that remains for me is what shape the backside of the curve takes. That's why the decline of investment is such a big deal. Investment today means production 5 years hence, so if producers decide to sit on their hands today, 5 years from today is when we'll see the result, or the non-results as it were. If the LTO Red Queen has by then stumbled and begun to fall behind we'll be doubly cursed.
