[dorlomin]

http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/we-are ... sts-say--2



The article basically says that an advanced analysis of global unrest links it to...... (drum roll please) food prices.

But it misses our old friend peaking round the corner.... oil depletion.

[vtsnowedin]

Odd their chart doesn't show the London tuition riot. Interesting piece that the Geeks can analyse it to that degree. I'm still waiting for the Egyptian people to realise that it doesn't matter who ends up in charge unless he can do the trick with the loaves and fishes they are still in de-nile surrounded by crocs.

[dorlomin]

Odd their chart doesn't show the London tuition riot.

There were 4 of those, but they were little more than the police screwing up an agitated crowd. The real riots were the London\ Brum\ Manchester etc riots of August 11.

That said the most hard core riots in the UK are the ones in Northern Ireland during marching seasons and the current Belfast flag riots. But no one pays attention to when those loons are hurling petrol bombs, its dog bites man type news.

[Plantagenet]

I can't think of a single riot in the history of the US over food prices. Riots in the USA have been mostly race riots, anti-draft riots, anti-war riots, union riots, and other political riots.

[dorlomin]

I can't think of a single riot in the history of the US over food prices.

You make a pretty good point. They are few but not completely unkown.

The Southern Bread Riots were events of civil unrest in the Confederacy on April 2, 1863. The riots were triggered mainly by foraging armies, both Union and Confederate, who ravaged crops and devoured draft animals. The staggering inflation created by the Confederate government was also a primary cause. The drought of 1862 created a poor harvest that did not yield enough in a time when food was already scarce. From 1861 to 1863, the price of wheat tripled and butter and milk prices quadrupled. Salt, which at the time was the only practical meat preservative, was very expensive (if available at all) as a result of the Union blockade and the capture of Avery Island by the Union.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Bread_Riots
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Bread_Riot

They have happened but rarely. Actually demand for low cost US surplus has led to riots in the UK.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_Laws#Origins

With the advent of peace in 1814, corn prices decreased, and the Tory government of Lord Liverpool passed the 1815 Corn Law to keep bread prices high. This resulted in serious rioting in London.[4]

Riots in the USA have been mostly race riots, anti-draft riots, anti-war riots, union riots, and other political riots.

And the failure of colonials to dutifully pay the tax they owed their most noble sovereign.

[vtsnowedin]

And the failure of colonials to dutifully pay the tax they owed their most noble sovereign.

No when the militia are called and they form up on the green and turn back the lobster-backs and send them on a marathon march under musket fire all the way back to their barracks in Boston that is not a riot. That is a revolution!

[Fishman]

Excellent thread dorlomin. Note those problems all were from countries which have few average resources in the firstplace (a few exceptions). By the time that level of unrest comes to the developed countries, most of these countries may be in the beginning of die offs. Not hoping, just predicting. At present, oil = food

[Expatriot]

Thank you for the link.

[Beery1]

And the failure of colonials to dutifully pay the tax they owed their most noble sovereign.

Colonials were actually taxed far lower than their contemporaries living in England. After the war, the US levied higher taxes on the American citizens than Britain ever did.

Also, Britain was, at that time, a parliamentary democracy with the monarch being only the titular head of state, just as it is today. The elected Parliament, not the crown, levied taxes. England hasn't been an absolute monarchy since the signing of the Magna Carta in 1215, and was arguably so only for the 149 years between the Norman Conquest and that date.

The American Revolution had far more to do with slavery than with taxes (Google 'The Somersett Case'). Americans wanted to keep slaves and the winds of change were ending slavery in the British Empire. The revolution allowed America to remain a slave state for another 80-odd years, at a time when the civilized nations of the world were condemning it.

Of course, you won't see any of that in American school textbooks.

[vtsnowedin]

Actually they taught us that it was much more complicated then just taxes. There were trade restrictions that gave British merchants monopolies on manufactured goods sold in the colonies. The best timber was reserved for HMs navy etc. And the tax payers received almost nothing in return for their taxes and were left to fend for themselves for everything from defense to bridges. But when you come right down to it it was inevitable as the population in the colonies was approching that of the home islands and the tail would not be able to wag the dog for long. It is only surprising that it happened as early as it did and it resulted in a strong country without a dictator or a small ruling class after only one revolution.

[Keith_McClary]

[Ibon]

This thread should stay on topic of riots in developing countries due to food shortages. Poor countries, particularly those with soaring populations and poor domestic food production and dependent on imported food, are the countries to watch. Droughts and crop failures in food exporting countries like Russia, USA, Brazil can trigger soaring food prices reaching levels where folks earning 2-6 dollars a day will be pushed to a critical threshold.

Taking a step back in order to predict events or consequences that will penetrate denial and bring us closer to global acceptance and action around climate change and overshoot in general, I can't help but suspect that social unrest due to rising food prices and the riots that this will form will be a key consequence to bring climate change into the realm of short term emergency rather than its current position of denial and being a far off problem.

Soaring food prices and starving humans are more effective than rising ocean levels to bring about geopolitical resolve around this issue, as well as strategic hoarding among countries like China with a government obsessed with maintaining stability of 1.5 billion potentially hungry Chinese who already compost their own excrement to produce their current agricultural yields.

I do believe we have a topic here to keep your eye on when it comes to identifying those consequences that can act as catalysts.

[Antaris]

Remember the"dirty thirties ". My father grew up as a boy starving. Snaring gofers helped keep the family fed. Wikipedia has a good explanation of the time. Kinda sounds like last summer.

[eagle eye]

It is a big difference, whether people are starving, (so really fighting against death) or whether it is the question to eat meat every day or not.
As soon as people become richer they want to eat more meat (often seen in history), but going the way back is very painful. But you are not fighting death because of changing habits.

So what "riots" could happen? In spain truck drivers occupied petrol stations because of high oil prices which led to conflicts with the police. So people didnt get petrol at all, and the food supply of the population was restricted.

But is this a riot?

[Ibon]

So what "riots" could happen? In spain truck drivers occupied petrol stations because of high oil prices which led the conflicts with the police. So people didnt get petrol at all, and the feed supply of the population was restricted.

But is this a riot?

This is exactly why I said we should stay on the topic of the focus of the article on developing countries. When you only earn 3 dollars a day and 85% of what you earn goes to feeding yourself this is not a choice between meat and grains. It is a real question of hunger and a type of hunger that can make you riot. The article is not relevant to the USA or Europe.

We are not talking about bloated belly marginalized sub saharan Africans here. A huge percentage of the global population are living in populated urban areas, earning wages that leave very little extra beyond food and shelter, and doubling of food prices due to crop failures is a powder keg.

This will not be ignored by the media like marginalized starving sub saharan africans often are. These are the folks that are employed in textile factories in Bangladesh. When one persons salary making your Ipods in China is feeding 20 people what do you think the social consequences are when food prices double?

This is not a US problem. The US adjustment to climate change and resource constraints is about a recalibration of expectations, not real hunger. Not yet anyway although I fully expect some poster here to remind us about real hunger in the US as well, but this is not the hunger that causes riots. Not yet anyway.

[eagle eye]

So if gas prices rise further on , this would first impact the economy because of the rising price for mobility and transportation.
Here it's the question which price for mobility and transportation the economy bears.

If this price is exceeded, this could cause a really big depression leading to very high unemployment.
And this unemployment could cause riots.

So poor countries will be concerned first, but as we are all living in a globalized world, sooner or later everybody will be concerned.

[dorlomin]

Lot of things have to come together for a riot to happen. There has to be a collective sense of group grievance, a spark to get the ball rolling, preferably a policing presence to get others in the group involved. It does not have to be about food and fuel but a sense of loss of income and wealth can be a big chip on the shoulder that helps push groups over the edge.

The London 11 and Paris 05 riots were both sparked by poor policing and groups gathering behind that sense of injustice for personal gain. Other famous events like Prague 68, Paris 68 or Berlin 89 had the governments failures to address peoples needs behind them.

'Food riots' are likely to be general discontent with governance being given an additional sense of grievance by food prices and a push from silly policing.

High food prices become one additional variable in an un-contented world.

[Ibon]

Lot of things have to come together for a riot to happen. There has to be a collective sense of group grievance, a spark to get the ball rolling, preferably a policing presence to get others in the group involved. It does not have to be about food and fuel but a sense of loss of income and wealth can be a big chip on the shoulder that helps push groups over the edge.

Your are right. So a collective sense of group grievance over disparities and you then add a hungry belly to the mix is powerful. It influences the culture, it establishes new memes. Some wealthy Brazilians drive around in used old cars. Brazil also dedicates a larger proportion of their GDP for social services, not some socialist ideology or altruism, more pragmatic policy to keep the powder keg from exploding.

As you say we live in a globalized world. These early indicators provide a hint about where the cultural memes and values are heading in richer countries. Oppulence and flaunting it is not going to win you friends or influence people as it has in the past.

Putting aside a moment the real tragedy of hunger and starvation, it is for me atleast more interesting to contemplate how the body politic and collective global culture re defines itself morally, value wise, fashion wise, social status wise, around contraction and overshoot. Events like witnessing major starvation events and riots in specific parts of the world will act like catalysts (and viewed as canaries in the mineshaft) that accelerate a shift of cultural values toward a more balanced sustainability (for self preservation) with how we live on this planet. I am not excluding resource wars here.

Keep you finger on this pulse as you interpretet events.

[vtsnowedin]

I would say that the USA devoting forty million acres of corn land to the production of motor fuel is a key factor in the present world food price index. A cynic would think that they have chosen to starve the Arab world out by cutting off their food supply just as they starved out the plains Indians by wiping out the buffalo.

[dorlomin]

A cynic would think that they have chosen to starve the Arab world out by cutting off their food supply just as they starved out the plains Indians by wiping out the buffalo.

Destabilizing friendly regimes like Mubarak, reducing global economic activity, throwing sparks into the worlds oil producing regions?

Governments like stability. People like stability. There is a time and a place for instability but I do not see now and the Arab world as being that time and place for US interests. It would be some plot for the Bush administration to convince congress to pass laws that would 'starve' countries in decades to come and only with the consent of other future administrations.

Occams razor says there is a shed load of votes to be had bunging swing state farmers fat pay cheques.