[Ibon]

Certainly Asia seems vastly overpopulated. Middle East is a ticking time bomb. Africa is helpless. Europe is overpopulated relative to resources and may be somewhat vulnerable to violent engagement. Though the Scandinavian countries seem well positioned. Latin America is mostly in hot humid environments which will have to deal with global warming. They themselves may enter into conflict. So that is a rough pithy summary of possible future locations of remaining people Certainly global warming will be a major factor going forward.

Once again, just imagine you are witnessing from a far, from some relatively stable bio region, the collapse of human populations in some of these vulnerable areas.

How does witnessing this affect the decisions some of these more stable regions will make in terms of stewardship of their resource base.

This is the cultural natural selection process I am referring to.... reinforced by witnessing dramatic failures.

[onlooker]

Yes Ibon, we can all agree that the impact will be great in a visceral sense. 6 billion or so people dying cannot but create a deep impression on the survivors. So that those that remain will be challenged to create a habitat that will allow them to survive but even more so to create an ideological foundation that is conducive to their continued survival. Hopefully this will happen in the immediate aftermath, while the impact is still fresh that these survivors will all agree that they are subject to the intractable laws of nature. Not separate or above them.

[Cid_Yama]

Onlooker, may I suggest Earth Abides by George Stewart. You won't be disappointed.

link

[onlooker]

thanks for the link Cid

[KaiserJeep]

Earth Abides is the classic post-apocalyptic novel. I read it decades ago and still remember it. Fans of the novel frequently resist the idea that they read and enjoyed Science Fiction.

[dohboi]

Ibon wrote: "war and conflict do also accelerate the dismantling of this vast juggernaut of breeding and consuming humans"

Perhaps, especially locally and regionally. But globally, plagues rate maybe a blip on the long rise in human population; wars--even world wars--rate not even a visible blip.

And on prospects of some kind of tech surviving...maybe...some types.

But there is no guarantee that any particular type of tech will survive (and of course this holds true even for techno-fantasists dream future...new tech tends to drum out old, after all).

History is strew with technologies that were lost for centuries, at least, even after having been firmly established in the local and regional cultures and civilizations:

writing after Linear B lost to Greece for hundreds of years;

Minoan indoor plumbing largely lost to the world for thousands of years;

silk making, dome architecture, concrete manufacture...lost to the western world after the collapse of the Roman Empire for over a millennia...

One thing we have to wrap our heads around is that organized global civilization is largely going away: (a four-, and probably even a two-degree (let alone 6+) C hotter than pre-industrial world is just not compatible with it. And that is what is coming down the pike--two degree just about everyone who knows anything agrees; six degrees, many of the top institutions and scientists say is now essentially likely/inevitable by or shortly after the end of the century. Even 9 C in the next century is included in some models. And these are the standard models from official sources, all probably somewhat or wildly optimistic.)

Most high tech today relies on resources culled from around the world; which culling, since it depends on an organized global civilization, just is not going to happen--certainly not on anything like the scales we have it happening today.

So I see no obvious way to say that we can be sure any particular kind of high tech will make it through the (optimistically termed, imho) 'bottleneck.'

[Ibon]

History is strew with technologies that were lost for centuries, at least, even after having been firmly established in the local and regional cultures and civilizations:

writing after Linear B lost to Greece for hundreds of years;

Minoan indoor plumbing largely lost to the world for thousands of years;

silk making, dome architecture, concrete manufacture...lost to the western world after the collapse of the Roman Empire for over a millennia...'

Good examples. A couple years ago we were digging a drainage ditch and discovered a stone tool. Here is a blog entry about this. What I wrote in the text here:

http://blog.mounttotumas.com/?p=188

I used the tool on a fresh cut piece of bamboo to smoothen the joints to be used as a curtain rod. Kind of a pathetic application compared to those used by the ancestors who made it. This simple task of shaving bamboo however does honor their craftsmanship that hundreds of years after being buried it emerges still in perfect shape to perform a task it was designed for. How many of our modern technological tools would emerge after centuries buried still functional? I guess stainless steel cookware.

I often thought about all our digital devices and modern technology and how much of it would simply disappear if events really brought ruins to our civilization. What could still be used or even understood if buried for a millennium?

Could happen. Not an unlikely scenario. As I said I am not fixed on us making it through the bottleneck if we stubbornly take the burning of remaining fossil fuels to the bitter end. We could really cause disruptions that are destabilizing enough to lay our civilization in ruins. We do have to acknowledge that the knifes edge we walk includes this possibility. If anything, this possibility should at some point act as a catalyst to take action..... but we aren't there yet... still far away, and in the meantime we will burn through billions of gallons of fossil fuels.

Yes, one must see this clearly.

[sparky]

.
In my mind the crucial turning point was getting out of the trees , I blame the women

[onlooker]

I think the points made here about the impact of global warming are very valid. Of all the disruptions and harm we have and are causing the biosphere, global warming is by far it seems to me the worst. We are talking about an extinction level event as Cid Yama has pointed out and is explained by those who have studied past extinctions. It is delusional at this point not to admit that possibility. In the meantime, we will roll down the era of consequences and hope to survive with some dignity and modernity. It may be that we now do not have our destiny in our hands. AGW Feedback mechanisms appear poised to significantly alter the Earth in ways that make our future on it at best uncertain. I can think of nothing more humbling then this reality.

[Ibon]

I think that's where we currently are, where probably a large chunk of society is aware at some level that we're ecologically f*cked beyond hope but they've compartmentalized it in the back of their heads, are going through the motions, and amusing themselves to death with more trivial concerns. And there's nothing you can do more easily these days than fill your life with distractions, topics to be outraged about which are of no real consequence other than to be a sponge for people's endless existential insecurity. You know, the scandal du jour like Obama's brown jacket or Miley Cyrus tweeting photos of her crotch.

Ennui, read this weeks post by JMG. So relevant to what you wrote here. The Burden of Denial

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... enial.html

Some of the comments are very interesting as well. Especially by the poster Caryn living in Hong Kong.

Another poster Jo, made the following comment comparing denial to her personal experience going through a divorce.

Jo said...
I went through an experience a couple of years ago similar to the one you are describing - except that mine was a divorce. For years my ex-husband and I had been distracting ourselves in various ways to hide the reality of the situation which was that our marriage wasn't working. We couldn't bear to admit it even to ourselves, because it seemed too terrible to face.

When we finally were able to admit the truth, yes, it was truly terrible and traumatic, but as you say, also cathartic and a tremendous relief. It was then that I resolved to make facing reality a more regular feature of my life. I don't ever again want to waste years finding ways to avoid the truth.


The denial is strong to confront the painful reality of our times, but it's also paper thin in the sense that once hardship force us to confront it, we actually then are almost relieved.

This raises a question if perhaps the mind numbing denial we are currently witnessing isn't just the collective fear in the last waning days of illusionary stability before consequences really force us to confront reality. I am not even thinking so much on the older generations more set in their ways as much as the younger generations emerging during these increasingly unstable times.

We really might witness a kind of social and cultural movement as profound as what we saw in the 60's of young people flat out rejecting the status quo. Not in the way we did it in the 60's confronting authority but rather in the quiet refusal to participate and refusal to buy into consumption.

I suspect we are not going to continue the decades to follow in deep denial. Unstable times are volatile.

[Timo]

We really might witness a kind of social and cultural movement as profound as what we saw in the 60's of young people flat out rejecting the status quo. Not in the way we did it in the 60's confronting authority but rather in the quiet refusal to participate and refusal to buy into consumption.

Too bad Lent is just a very short period of the year. Religions of all sorts use fasting and the deprivations of "sinful" ways for brief periods of time in the name of their faith. This is their sacrifice to demonstrate the validity and extent of their faith.

I use this example only to illustrate that humans are capable of forgoing material pleasures when called upon to do so. These periods of time are also voluntary by each individual, as well. The obligatory caveat is that these periods of time are also short-lived. There is an expiration date, preceeded and succeeded by a periods of excess.

What we need to get us into this state of mind on a perpetual basis, though, is a wake-up call too big to ignore. Events referrenced in the Bible are always huge, like raining frogs, or the parting of the Red Sea, or the flooding of the entire planet. Events like that don't happen anymore. I wonder why. Actually, maybe they do, but now they're scientifically explained, instead of attributed to divine intervention. Science does come in handy to the fundamentalists, sometimes.

That said, i wonder on what the scale and nature that event would have to be in order to convince us to begin living below our means.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-
That said, i wonder on what the scale and nature that event would have to be in order to convince us to begin living below our means.

Perhaps Nuclear Armageddon when the Ayatollahs finally have their bombs?

[Timo]

-snip-
That said, i wonder on what the scale and nature that event would have to be in order to convince us to begin living below our means.

Perhaps Nuclear Armageddon when the Ayatollahs finally have their bombs?

Nice try, but war begets war. That will only bring on the call for vengance, and nothing will be gained. Nucluear war would not even remotely convince people to start living below their means to ensure long-term survival. Nuclear war will only being about more nuclear war, and thus the end of everything. We'd be living below our means only becauswe we're dead.

[onlooker]

I personally do not think anything would convince us to live below our means, we simply will get to a point whereby we can only live a certain way. The one thing that appears pretty sure at this point is we will be knocked way down off our lofty perch. Then we will live in the only way Earth allows us to live.

[careinke]

We really might witness a kind of social and cultural movement as profound as what we saw in the 60's of young people flat out rejecting the status quo. Not in the way we did it in the 60's confronting authority but rather in the quiet refusal to participate and refusal to buy into consumption.

Well said Ibon,

I think this has already started, and is (slowly) gaining momentum.

Most of the young people I know who are in their twenties and early thirties have basically zero faith in our governments ability to actually fix things. They generally view government as an annoyance to their lives, and ignore it when possible.

None, that I know, expect to have a "career" working for a company all their lives, with a nice retirement at the end. Of course Social Security is just a joke to them, that takes away their money, with zero expectations of any return.

They realize the system is stacked against them, so they ignore government whenever possible, (to avoid government force being inflicted on them). Why do you think the youth vote is so low? They understand their vote is just a mirage to make people think their opinion actually matters to the system and voting is more like rooting for your favorite football team. Its fun, but makes no real difference in your life.

Most, either work as contractors, have a transitional type job, or have started their own businesses. They do not shirk from learning new things, and consider Youtube thier go to source to learn new life skills. I hear them say all the time if they have a need to learn something practical "Youtube is your friend." My son, learned to butcher a hogs and turkeys from youtube (saves you $1 a pound in processing).

All are working towards land ownership.

Both my kids are in this age group (which is why I have some familiarity with them). I am frequently called by their friends for advice and help, which I always willingly give and never ask for anything in return. However, they always seem to voluntarily give me something in return for my effort. Sort of a gift economy.

Granted my sample size is small, and most of them, I know through my children. But the youngsters I am familiar with, give me a small bit of hope that at least these kids will adapt to the coming changes.

[onlooker]

https://www.revealnews.org/article/were ... y-worried/
We’re running out of water, and the world’s powers are very worried

[onlooker]

Thought I would post this here. I nice neat GIF, of the temperature changes on Earth since 1800's onward to the present.
http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/ ... iginal.gif

[dohboi]

That's a great and shocking graphic, ol. With so many great illustrations of just how f'd we are, one wonders why so many still just don't even begin to get it.

[onlooker]

That's a great and shocking graphic, ol. With so many great illustrations of just how f'd we are, one wonders why so many still just don't even begin to get it.

Cognitive Dissonance?

[Newfie]

Well, like the quote from Jo above, we do not want to face reality.

How many of us stand and look in a full length mirror and truly take stock of what they see? Denial is part of human nature, it keeps us going in the face of bad odds. You have all heard the phrase, admiringly spoken "against all odds." Except now it's working against us.