tita wrote:Tanada wrote: Why? Because 1) A lot of places that were producing oil in volume in 1987 are either no longer producing or are producing a small fraction of what they were selling in 1987. Take both the North Sea and Alaska as examples of this. 2) world demand is much larger than it was in 1987, almost double in fact. This means it only takes a small percentage demand increase to have a large volume effect on the market.
3) Middle east decreased production by almost 12 MMbbls/d between 1979 and 1985. This assured that prices were gonna be low for at least 12 yeas as ME was able to answer the demand growth (~1MMbbls/d per year).
There is no such kind of cheap oil spare capacity today... Maybe 1-2 MMbbls/d.
Define cheap. The US has demonstrated that they can grow 1-2 million barrels a day at $100 oil faster than at any time in the history of the country, and turn on more new volume than Ghawar produces in half a decade. At $50/bbl, growth is far lower, allowing demand to overtake new supply. But maybe the price isn't low enough to stop the US from peaking. Again.
In either case, what is cheap? My wife charged her car for free at work today, like she does most days when the weather isn't snowy. Smart folks like her don't care if gasoline is $1/gal, or $10/gal. It is no more relevant to her personal commuting than the price of street heroin. When you don't use something, charge the suckers what you will.
Now, the effect on the economy as a whole (of higher fuel prices) is something else altogether. But even there we are already seeing the EV revolution from when peak oil happened (lets use TODs 2008 call) to entire countries saying they are going to call it quits. IN A LOW PRICE ENVIRONMENT!!
Ignore the evidence that Tony Seba presents at your own risk. Me? I use the wife's EV every chance I get because I don't like paying anything for gasoline either, and I don't have my own EV yet! But I'm thinking about it! Used, in the current low price environment, is quite moderately priced.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"