[Revi]

While watching Downton Abbey last night I thought of a great metaphor for peak oil. Let's say you are an old aristocratic family like the Granthams. You are getting less and less income from your land and village, so you start to sell antiques and land to finance the lifestyle you are accustomed to. You are selling your legacy to keep it all going. It works for a while, but eventually you run out of things to sell, and then the whole thing falls down.

The metaphor is for peak oil. We hit a peak of conventional oil around 2005, and since then we have been using our legacy to support the extraction of tight oil, deepwater and fracking. The only way this stuff works is if we have the EROEI of conventional oil in order to support them. We are going to see a sharp downslope when the peak of all oil sources comes. That might be happening in the very near future. Gail Tverberg thinks it may be next year.

[Revi]

What do you think of this analogy? I thought it was a lot like our present situation as an aging empire, very similar to the British Empire at the beginning of the show. The Granthams have a little lease on life from marrying into American money and the money that Matthew brought in before his untimely demise. They will have to downsize radically or figure something else out soon. Just like us. We are going to have to downsize our lives radically very soon. Those of us who know about this are going to be much better psychologically, but imagine what it will do to the average person.

[Subjectivist]

I have never seen the show, but the analogy fits what has taken place in many old money families over the last few centuries.

I do think if the Saudi America shale miracle turns out to be goose feces instead of the golden egg we were told it is things could get very ugly very quickly.

[GHung]

I'll ask my wife. She watches that sort of thing so she won't have to think about peak oil

[jjhman]

I've enjoyed reading Gail Tviborgs's site for several years and I've been following the concept of peak oil since the Arab oil embargo in 1973

But every time I see an graph that "proves" that peak oil is going to occur within the next twelve months I fear that I am in the presence of lunatics.

[Revi]

The drop off will be steeper than the run up, and there are a lot more people now, so it will be a lot less per capita as well. I think we will see some problems creeping up very soon. Just like the Granthams we have to spend a lot just to keep it all going, so small amounts of money won't do it. The whole estate will fail, and we'll have to figure out how to live without things like cars, jobs and large houses. It's going to be hard to do. We have lived so high for so long, it's going to be a real shock. Just like the Granthams we won't be able to just become a member of the class that walks to work and packs their lunch. If there is work to be had...

[Revi]

Here's a trailer for Downtown Abbey to give you an idea of it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hLTX9HmWRY

[Revi]

I've enjoyed reading Gail Tviborgs's site for several years and I've been following the concept of peak oil since the Arab oil embargo in 1973

But every time I see an graph that "proves" that peak oil is going to occur within the next twelve months I fear that I am in the presence of lunatics.

I agree, but it seems like we just can't afford it any more, and that will drag it down as steeply as she claims. The other stuff from fracking and tar sands has a much lower EROEI, and is therefore subsidized by the easy to get stuff. Therefore we won't be able to play with it when it gets serious. We will only be able to get the stuff that has a high return, and therefore overall we won't be bringing nearly as much energy. Basically we can only continue the lifestyle we have if we get over 100,000 BTU's per gallon of energy. Once it drops below that, we are going to have to sell everything, just like the Granthams. It's over. Sad but true.

[Pops]

That is good Revi. The old landed gentry were rentiers, living off of the success of previous generations. They produced nothing, merely administered the ancestral property.

They lost out to the carbon fueled manufacturing economy that created value from fossils rather than merely renting out property and menas of production.

But I would say that instead of reliving the era, we are on the edge of returning to a time of wealth concentration and rentier economics. The little interlude of a wealthy middle and not-awful lower classes was just a byproduct of the excess energy we stumbled over.



overcome by the manufacturing economy that increased wages

[Revi]

That is good Revi. The old landed gentry were rentiers, living off of the success of previous generations. They produced nothing, merely administered the ancestral property.

They lost out to the carbon fueled manufacturing economy that created value from fossils rather than merely renting out property and means of production.

But I would say that instead of reliving the era, we are on the edge of returning to a time of wealth concentration and rentier economics. The little interlude of a wealthy middle and not-awful lower classes was just a byproduct of the excess energy we stumbled over, overcome by the manufacturing economy that increased wages

I think you are right. Therefore those with land now stand a better chance of becoming the rentier class. There isn't going to be much else to do. It means a return to feudalism, maybe forced by the violence and trouble that will ensue. A lot of people who never thought they would become peasants will like that better than being killed outside of the protected areas.

[Withnail]

Why the f are people watching Downton Abbey?

There's no excuse for that unless you're half deaf semi senile pensioners in a home for the aged.

[Withnail]

There's no excuse for that unless you're half deaf semi senile pensioners in a home for the aged.

You are from Britain, right? You have to understand that Americans think you are quaint. Most haven't seen Trainspotting yet.

Where is it people view Downton Abbey, is it on BBC America or on other channels?

[Withnail]

There's no excuse for that unless you're half deaf semi senile pensioners in a home for the aged.

You are from Britain, right? You have to understand that Americans think you are quaint. Most haven't seen Trainspotting yet.

Where is it people view Downton Abbey, is it on BBC America or on other channels?

Probably through their local PBS (Public Broadcasting Service) channel. That is sort of federally-subsidized politically-correct, very educational, highly-informed very very serious highbrow television.

This explains why the BBC produces such shit these days.

What do they care, they're making a profit selling it abroad.

[Revi]

I don't know why I like it, but I do. These kinds of shows are really a commentary on the culture that made them, not the one they are depicting. Here we are in 2015, we are all living way beyond our means trying to hold up a system that is doomed. Of course we want to watch English lords and their help. They are the upper class twits we love to hate. Meanwhile we are trying to ignore the reality that is all around us.

[Revi]

Why the f are people watching Downton Abbey?

There's no excuse for that unless you're half deaf semi senile pensioners in a home for the aged.

That's what I thought at first. I thought that it was going to be another upper class English twit show like that one about the department store, Selfridges. Yuck!

But I got into the Downton Abbey series because it has so many different characters and they manage to keep the pot boiling every episode so far.

They are living in a gigantic mansion and are employing many people, and the whole thing was being held up with American money, then inheritances and now they are realizing that they need to actually make some money again.

It would be nice if we could actually figure this kind of thing out before we are forced to by peak oil, but I don't think the odds are very good.

[Shaved Monkey]

English inheritance law amongst the wealthy was the eldest son got everything.
They needed colonies for the second and third son to get land and become rich without chipping away at the family estate.
Cheap oil/coal fuelled the Industrial revolution and having all that land when your serfdom left for factory jobs wasnt as a big an asset anymore.
The other option was marrying rich American girls predominantly Jewish businessmen's daughters who got part of their families inheritances.