[Rune]

Let's be a little more scientific and ask the question for regulars, lurkers...anyone.. bring over friends from Malthusia.net if you want, cheat the poll using multiple usernames, I don't care.

Regarding the in-progress or impending collapse due to peak oil, over-population or any reason related to unlikely infinite growth of civilization on a finite planet, will there be a fast crash, slow crash or no crash?

You can also vote for me, "Carlhole", my original username, if you want to. I intentionally gave my self a disparaging username in 2004. It simply means, "Carl you are an ***hole".

[diemos]

Slow Crash.

As Madge would say, "You're soaking in it."

[Rune]

Slow Crash.

As Madge would say, "You're soaking in it."

Well, please vote.

[ohanian]

I give you my word. Before this generation has passed, the world would end and the messiah shall return to reclaim his kingdom on earth.

It's TRUE. It has been TRUE all the way since 30 AD. Every single year, this has been TRUE. And it will be TRUE for millions of years yet to come.

And you asked me when the civilization be collapsed? It collapsed in 30 AD.

[John_A]

Slow Crash.

As Madge would say, "You're soaking in it."

Soaking in what? Multi year economic recovery even with a slowdown in government spending, housing values recovering, wars ending, the price of oil down nearly $40/bbl from the bad old days of half a decade ago?

[diemos]

In the US the slow crash started in 1968.

In 1968 a man with a high school diploma could get a job on the assembly line down at the factory and earn enough money to raise a family (with a non-working wife), own a home, afford medical care, have a comfortable retirement and send his kids to college.

That was the peak of general prosperity and it's been downhill ever since.

Today your average wall-mart employee needs food stamps to survive.

Yes, if you look at all the gadgets we have today and at the lifestyles of the top quintile you can convince yourself that everything is hunky-dorey but for the average person it's been a long slow grinding drop in standard of living. Slow enough that every step down just becomes the new normal. Unnoticeable, until you look back at a stretch of time and realize just how far things have fallen for the average American.

[ian807]

The three most likely civilization distruptions are:

1) Economic (most likely).

2) Resource crises (Oil, water and nitrates)

3) Nuclear war (Limited, if we're lucky).

So, I'm not sure "crash" is the right word. I think that Europe, the USA, Russia and China will revert to the economic mean of humanity. In short, we'll all be poorer, and I'm pretty sure we're within a decade of that. As long as we have enough oil, though, I don't think we'll see mass starvation, and I'm pretty sure that the lights stay one, at least for a few hours each day.

The near term threat is the economy. Every central bank in the "rich" world is setting the stage for hyperinflation. You can't put 80 billion new dollars a month into an economy without producing any real valuable goods and services and expect this not to happen. It may not happen for years, but one day, it will happen.

Oil is a hard limit. It's a critical path fuel, because the world's interlocking, interdependent supply chain system depends on large quantities of very cheap transportation fuel. There's no real substitute for it unless battery technology improves dramatically and drops in price. Raise the price of oil, or make oil scarce and many of those supply chains for food, medicine and machinery are no longer ecomically viable. Oil, unfortunately, also affects the price of everything else, making it vulnerable to feedback effects. When high oil prices start causing higher oil prices, we're in for price spikes and crashes, followed by permanently higher oil prices. It will exist, but you won't be putting any in your car unless you're very wealthy. This is a bigger problem than the economy, and people will starve.

Nuclear weapons still exist in Russia, China and the USA. While we're doing a good job of converting them into nuclear fuel, there will be pushback from the military as the number declines and they will never disappear. If resource wars start in earnest in China or the Middle East, they may be used. Lastly, If the USA, Russia or China break up into separate geopolitical entities, we may see nuclear civil wars. India and Pakistan are also likely candidates for nuclear war. Unfortunately, I think this is inevitable and will happen somewhere in the next 20-30 years.

Cheers!

[steam_cannon]

Soaking in what? Multi year economic recovery even with a slowdown in government spending, housing values recovering, wars ending, the price of oil down nearly $40/bbl from the bad old days of half a decade ago?

This is a rosy perspective, but...

"$40/bbl from the bad old days of half a decade ago"
I believe oil prices are up again and have now hit $108. $100+ is about where oil prices crush the economy and crush demand for oil. Full decades ago, oil used to be $20 or less. Right now oil costs more then five times then what's affordable for our economy to be successful the way it's built.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum
http://www.oil-price.net/
http://www.bdlive.co.za/markets/2013/08 ... nomic-data

"Multi year economic recovery"
The dollar continues to lose value and the world is losing interest in US currency. On the individual scale, pay rates have remained stagnant and prices for every day things like gas, food and housing are up. Used cars are hard to get since the governments cash for clunkers buy back. Personal debt is soaring. The only brightside is the Jobs picture is less bleak then a few years back, except that's mostly only true for middle aged experienced workers and not younger people.

"housing values recovering"
After a great deal of Detroitification. In poorer neighborhoods, the Houses that didn't get abandoned and trashed and aren't next to a trashed house, those houses are rebounding in value priced in slightly less valuable dollars, this after swaths of the market have already suffered huge losses and abandoned trashed houses litter many neighborhoods. This is a case of a damaged market no longer getting worse aka a really lousy recovery. Like recovering after losing a leg.

"slowdown in government spending"
Slowdown in spending is like buying everything on a credit card you don't pay, but slowing down a little. Slowing down doesn't pay off the credit card, it's still getting bigger and doubled over the last presidency (nothing personal Obama). And it's questionable if we can pay these debts.

"wars ending"
No such thing, though it's great to hear acknowledgement that we are in multiple wars, most people have lost count. But as far as wars wrapping up, I remember when Bush said that and it wasn't true then either. And even if we wrap up one of these wars, we'll just move the troops to another country and start all over again. Good or bad, the US operates in a perpetual state of war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_o ... operations

[Narz]

There is a possibility of full societal collapse in my lifetime but I don't think it's as likely as I used to. People are still incredibly wasteful as is society. There is a lot of fat to cut before things get really bad.

Still very few people really give a damn about energy or environmental issues.

If things were really bad people would be a lot more resourceful than they are now but most people aren't. They're too busy fucking around on the Internet posting to people they don't know about things they can't affect.

[John_A]

Soaking in what? Multi year economic recovery even with a slowdown in government spending, housing values recovering, wars ending, the price of oil down nearly $40/bbl from the bad old days of half a decade ago?

This is a rosy perspective, but...

"$40/bbl from the bad old days of half a decade ago"
I believe oil prices are up again and have now hit $108.

Okay. July of 2008 they had spiked into about $148/bbl land. So $40 better, give or take.

$100+ is about where oil prices crush the economy and crush demand for oil.

Yes, but crushing demand certainly hasn't appeared to happen since the bad ol' days of 2008. Crushing demand certainly happened back in about 1979, but demand didn't get crushed near so bad this time, back in 1979 it took nearly 15 years for demand to recover, this time around it never really even let up, and gave the impression of plateau oil since even farther back, like 2005.

"Multi year economic recovery"
The dollar continues to lose value and the world is losing interest in US currency. On the individual scale, pay rates have remained stagnant and prices for every day things like gas, food and housing are up. Used cars are hard to get since the governments cash for clunkers buy back. Personal debt is soaring. The only brightside is the Jobs picture is less bleak then a few years back, except that's mostly only true for middle aged experienced workers and not younger people.

Well, we all have our favorite statistics. I'll go with the standard, official one when defining recovery. Certainly you aren't wrong, things are more expensive and the good news is that inflation isn't ramping up like it did during the early 80's, debt appears to be a student loan issue more than other kinds of debt nowadays, and then those students have a tough time in an economy which requires common sense...like the kind of common sense where a young person picks a reasosnable degree to get, and doesn't borrow 6 figures to achieve it? Certainly with the market closing at an all time high the best bet since the crash of 2008 has been investment in the market...who predicted that one in the collapse happening around us...wealth through investment!

Anyway, here is the standard way of measuring recovery.

"housing values recovering"
After a great deal of Detroitification.

Orange County California? You really think it looks like Detroit after the housing bust? Miami Beach? Detroit certainly has its issues, but the housing bust happened where more real estate idiots existed rather than the bad political leadership and poor performance of american auto manufacturers.

"slowdown in government spending"
Slowdown in spending is like buying everything on a credit card you don't pay, but slowing down a little. Slowing down doesn't pay off the credit card, it's still getting bigger and doubled over the last presidency (nothing personal Obama). And it's questionable if we can pay these debts.

Are you aware of a single creditor of the US government which has not been paid its due over, say, the past century? Me neither. As far as "questionable", peak oil was one of those much less questionable things, once upon a time it was going to be the real deal...and instead we got shale oil, total liquids fuel production cracking 90 million barrels a day and a stock market that put how many trillions of value back into 401K's for those smart enough to have either left their money in during the crash or took everything they had and dumped it in immediately afterward. "Questionable" shouldn't even make the radar considering the other issues around the globe.

"wars ending"
No such thing, though it's great to hear acknowledgement that we are in multiple wars, most people have lost count. But as far as wars wrapping up, I remember when Bush said that and it wasn't true then either. And even if we wrap up one of these wars, we'll just move the troops to another country and start all over again. Good or bad, the US operates in a perpetual state of war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_o ... operations

Well, I might give you this one. Admittedly the Bush strategy for getting out of Iraq was effective, but Obama really has taken those policies and expanded them into various countries...apparently doing it so nicely that he was awarded the Nobel Peace prize for it. I think he should get credit for it, so I'll revise my statement to "wars are winding down into low risk robot attacks".

[Timo]

Slow Crash.

As Madge would say, "You're soaking in it."

Palmolive???

Gee. My fingers feel so soft.

[Shaved Monkey]

Slow and fast
There will be crashes of varying speeds depending on individual economic circumstances and timing.
Egypt type collapse will happen in some places,Cuba style collapses and rebirths will happen in others,Iraqi type, getting blown into the stone ages, will happen in others,Detroit type collapses in others and there will be places that will escape relatively un harmed.

[Rod_Cloutier]

Collapse may not be the right word.

Change or evolution are better terms. Compare how you live this year to say how you lived in 1975? No internet then, colour TV was a big thing, 13 channels to watch if you were lucky. Forget about seat warmers, or air conditioning in your car.

We've evolved since then. What will we evolve into next? Cultural change takes place at a snails pace, but it doesn't stop. Forty years from now will be culturally very different from the present. I think there will be good and bad, sun and rain. Great scientific and technological breakthroughs, and terrible wars, famines, plagues. I try to break even with my mood on a daily basis, best that can be hoped for would this to continue into the future.

[ralfy]

Interesting points from Storm Clouds Gathering:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tsUZinrCo8

That is, expect more of the same: high oil and food prices (driven by peak oil, the effects of environmental damage and global warming, increased demand, etc.), and the effects of those on the global economy (employment problems, austerity measures, etc.), as the petro-dollar is used amid problems involving peak oil. But when countries start moving away from the petro-dollar, military forces and other means will be employed to maintain the status quo. Since Russia, China, and other countries are now involved, these may lead to global conflict.

[GregT]

I voted for a slow crash. The slow crash that began 30 years ago here in North America. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are experiencing the end of the slow crash already. I give it less than a decade before we experience the same here. Things are about to get very ugly.

[Pops]

Of course it depends on how one defines civilization. But economic upheaval, wars, famines, plagues and destruction have been with us from the beginning, it's mostly us Baby Boomers that think otherwise.

But I doubt the likelihood of a Close Encounters-like collapse of civilization where the dirty dishes are left on the table. Not if it means someday space travelers come across the NSA facility out in Utah and wonder who stored all those pointless phone conversations, FB selfies and cornie rants.

Humans are pretty resilient, here is Hiroshima today, who'd of thunk it...




I don't know what's at the other end of that spectrum from Nuke War, 40 years ago I wouldn't have guessed I'd be laughing at a video of a person looking at her telephone so intently she would walk into a mall fountain – we're pretty inventive so who knows.

I've lived just long enough to see some cool inventions and have something to guage them against, the very thing I'm doing right now being the main one. I can't say some new technology would surprise me all that much. But, really new technology like the transistor/semiconductor changes the things you do rather than just how you do things. So instead of the invention of a cheap, renewable, environmentally friendly substance to fuel ICE suburban commutes and crosstown shopping trips, which we see so often touted here, I think it's more likely we'll reinvent suburban commutes and shopping trips.

There are lots of "solutions" to peak oil, just none that replicate cheap oil.

--
As for other things, I'd like to think we'll be nicer to the planet but at this point we're more self-directed than ever (See: Selfie). But for the first time in a long time more people are moving to the city center than to the 'burbs. Perhaps that will mark a change, who knows?

[dcoyne78]

A problem I see with this poll is that people have different understandings of "collapse".

So some people believe that what we are currently experiencing is a slow collapse, others see the current situation as a slow rise, and still others see the present situation as just the normal ebb and flow of civilization.

I would put myself in the third group, and think that although things will change, that humans are pretty inventive as a group and are likely to muddle along finding "solutions" and realizing later that new problems have been caused by the solution and then working on those problems.

Do I think this means the end of wars, disease, and all other problems? Absolutely not! Nothing will go smoothly, but I envision a day (in 100 years or so) when humans become fully aware that they are part of the Earth's ecosystem and that if they do not protect that system they will perish as a species. A tad optimistic perhaps, I probably watched too many Star Trek episodes in my youth.

DC

[AgentR11]

Soaking in what? Multi year economic recovery even with a slowdown in government spending, housing values recovering, wars ending, the price of oil down nearly $40/bbl from the bad old days of half a decade ago?

Yeah.. some recovery. The only thing that has happened is that 5% drop has now been cycled off the unemployment roles and despite being very hungry, very desiring of a regular paycheck, are not counted as "unemployed".

Do you notice what is missing this time around? Every post-recession recovery until the 2010'ish one had a nice strong uptick in the EMRATIO. Guess what didn't happen in this new Post-Peak economy?

[AgentR11]

Votes Slow Crash. My sense is that this crash will happen gradually, unwinding in a sequence of step-function like drops in employability. When you get right down to it, it doesn't take a very large portion of the population to harvest grain, get to a factory, and turn it into flour and corn flakes for the cities. Those jobs and industries are the only ones that truly have protection. Past that, in Western civilization, it'll be the modern version of bread rations (aka SNAP cards, etc) distributed to the populace in cities, where those in power try and keep everyone mildly entertained so that they don't go out and muck up the works.

This will make for a very brittle system over time.... Fortunately for Americans, we grow so much grain even in the presence of horrible climate changes that as long as we can keep the delivery and distribution system intact. J6P will be able to not starve and watch TV.

And in case one is thinking about it further, TV is much cheaper, and much safer for the powers than physically attended gladiatorial combat games. If the people are not in the street, they are not rioting, if they are not rioting, they aren't breaking important things.

[TheAntiDoomer]

There are lots of "solutions" to peak oil, just none that replicate cheap oil.

A ridiculous statement pops, just because you don't know what the replacement for cheap oil will be does not mean it will not exist. There were pops in the last who said there was no
Cheap replacement for cheap wood or whale oil. Who knows what the cheap oil of future will be, my best guess is synthetic fuels produced from very cheap fusion or thorium fission.