AdamB wrote:$200 oil will never happen. Peak oil predicted for 2020, and the equilibrium price at the new demand levels (70 million barrels per day) of about $25/bbl.
Outstanding explanation as to why.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
I haven't listened to all of this yet, it is exactly what I have been talking about in the EV thread.
This is actually the INVERSE of doomer house-of-cards theory. Doomers spend most of their time worrying about sudden collapse and how nobody (except they) anticipate them. Disruption is about huge opportunities for progress, and while yes, the proverbial buggy-whip manufacturers won't like it, it's ultimately a big net gain.
In the lifecycle of this forum we've seen one disruptive tech already come of age: LED lighting. It's not quite over yet, but we're in the tail-end of incandescents being completely phased out and CFLs being next on the chopping block as we skip forward to LEDs. Incandescents seemed like they'd be around forever. 100+ years, right? Sound similar? Similar to the internal combustion engine perhaps? Well, if you build a better mousetrap, people will probably eventually abandon the old for the new.
The examples given really drive it home. We've lived through these. And Kodak going from record profits to bankruptcy in a dozen odd years is really instructive. It's actually COMMON for the incumbent technology to have its best years immediately before tanking. It will seem as though all is well because this tech is so damn commoditized. Then everyone switches over almost overnight to the revolutionary replacement. Happened with digital cameras and happened with smartphones/tablets.
I just don't think it's possible for the hardcore doomers to ever come around. Even if they watch the presentation they are so stuck in their narrative of people's love-affair with gas-burning cars that they just can't imagine their buying habits could change so rapidly, even given these examples. We'll just have to wait and see.