Peak Oil News and Message Boards

shortonoil wrote:Of course it can, as long as it keeps importing 8 million barrels a day like it is now doing. Come on pstarr, get with the program here. Just because we import 43% of our oil doesn't mean we need it?

Actually it doesn't. Because we rexport most of that as gasoline and other refined fuels. Our net oil imports are the lowest they've been in 50 years. We are currently importing 2.3 million net barrels per day.

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels per Day)

BTW, pay off your lost bets welcher.

The US has lots of oil!! It's called NGLs, road tar, horse piss, and camel pee. And, it is all specially formulated, and ready to be shipped to China. We are so rich in energy that Congress is going to enlist another Energizer Bunny!

What a twit. It’s bad enough that you show back up here after pontificating for several years about the ETP model which would have oil at about $40 now and how nobody can afford oil anymore without so much as a “oops…guess I’m an idiot” apology. Now you want to add to the “dumb things shortonoil has said” list? It is a very long list.

Proven Crude Reserves and Production in the US are as high as they have ever been.



US crude oil and products exports are now at 7554 bbls/d or 8 times what they were in 2006. The US still imports oil because it needs certain characteristics to blend with it's own oil to meet refinery specs. It exports light oil to countries that have distillate refineries that can process that crude directly.

The interactive chart at the link lets you look behind the curtain by isolating factors to your hearts content. You can look at a single basin, a single state, even a single company or county. You can display the data by years, months, or other factors as well.
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This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 96,273 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through August. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.5 Gbo and 104 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag.

Oil production from horizontal wells in these states grew by almost 2 million bo/d in the 2 years through August. This growth rate was similar as in the boom years of 2013-14. The Permian was responsible for most of this gain, which you’ll see if you show the production data by ‘Basin’ (using the ‘Show production by’ selection).

Natural gas production has been setting new records as well during those 2 years and was above 47 Bcf/d in the basins we cover.

The steady increases in well productivity are shown in the ‘Well status’ tab, where all the oily basins are preselected. The horizontal wells that started in 2018 are so far closely tracking the performance of the ones from 2017.

In the final tab you will find the production histories and location of the largest shale operators. We’ve made a change in this dashboard; now the operators are ranked by their total production in the past 12 months (and not by their total historical production). This makes especially a big difference in the Permian, where several operators have recently increased production at a rapid rate.

Very cool, but info overload fer sure!

k - "Just because we import 43% of our oil doesn't mean we need it?"..."Actually it doesn't." Actually whether "we" need it or not depends upon which "we" you're representing. If that "we" represents 100's of thousands of highly paid refinery workers they certainly need it. I live in Baytown, Texas, one of the country's refining mega-centers. Many $billions have been spent expanding our refinery capacity. The shareholders of those refineries certainly need to oil imports in order to maintain stock value. The potential new refinery employees need that oil: thousands are currently in local training centers preparing for a major boost in their living standards. Local home builders are doing great also along with current homeowners (like the Rockman) are very pleased to see real estate prices booming. Many US cities are seeing those trends moving in the opposite direction. The govt bean counters are certainly happy to see at least one US industry with expanding exports that are helping to reduce our trade deficit.

There are a lot of "we's" that are very dependent upon those imports. And that includes every US consumer of gasoline et al: if our refineries were not the world's leading exporter of the products that market would be much tighter and US consumers would be spending 10's of $BILLIONS more every year. Folks really need to take a breath, step back and look at the BIG PICTURE and not just small snapshots.

Presented without further comment.


linky

We are producing a lot. Let's hope it saves us!

In this week's rig count, we are dead even yoy: +5 for oil-directed and -5 for gas-directed. This is a great indicator that the exponential look of that graph is going to radically change over the next few months.

WTI over $60 and a falling rig count -> has a new day dawned and investment dried up? Time will tell.

GoghGoner wrote:In this week's rig count, we are dead even yoy: +5 for oil-directed and -5 for gas-directed. This is a great indicator that the exponential look of that graph is going to radically change over the next few months.

WTI over $60 and a falling rig count -> has a new day dawned and investment dried up? Time will tell.

Tight oil was never going to approach the conventional reserves in size. The time axis on these graphs needs to be expanded to the last 70 years. The current spike is a short lived transient.

Of course, thanks to MSM incompetence or shilling we have the "shale oil" and "shale-like conventional oil" (e.g. Bakken) and "shale kerogens" (e.g. Green River) all mixed up in the minds of politicians and average media consumers. So there is the absurd expectation that kerogen deposit estimates somehow represent tight oil reserves.

For the first three quarters of 2023, U.S. oil production has averaged 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The previous annual record — set in 2019 just before the Covid-19 pandemic impacted production —was 12.3 million bpd.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... 981e9f6767

U.S. NGL production was 6.3 mb/d in August. Exports of NGLs, mostly to Asia and Latin America, have risen significantly over the past several years to 2.4 mb/d in 2022. NGLs are used for myriad purposes including petrochemical feedstocks, heating and cooking, and blending into crude oil.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/ener ... 023/en2309

US field production of natural Gas Liquids.



https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... _MBBLD&f=A

Oil Poised To Become U.S.’ Single Largest Export Product
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/O ... oduct.html

Can we not connect the dots here? 12.8 - 6.3 = 6.5 million barrels per day of US "Oil" production that can be used to run cars trucks, ships and planes. The rest, nearly half, is going offshore to Asia for manufacture of plastic bags and heating and cooking. Can anyone not fathom the consequences of this? That we quite obviously have a lot less oil to power our societies but a lot more to make plastic bags. This was all spelled out nearly a decade ago.

15 Jun 2014.
Four decades of decline in US oil output have been reversed in just five years of growth.”
“Petroleum production, including crude oil and related liquids, known as condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, was 11.27m barrels per day in April, almost equaling the peak of 11.3m b/d reached as an average for 1970. Recent growth rates suggest that it has now exceeded that figure.

https://jeremyleggett.net/2014/06/15/us ... -included/

This is why the highways and bridges are falling apart, among other societal woes. It was all built with cheap abundant oil suitable to power MACHINES. Burnable machine Oil which has been relentlessly declining for a decade and more. You can't rebuild a highway with plastic bags, you need trucks and heavy equipment for that. When I read some of the posts above I wonder if they are not written by astroturfers wanting to obfuscate the simple realities of PeakOil.