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Page added on June 14, 2020

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The War For Libya’s Oil

Public Policy

Last week, the Turks were still celebrating a presumed victory in Libya after General Haftar lost territory in and around Tripoli and the National Oil Company (NOC) went as far as to restart production at two giant oilfields–Sharara and El Feel. It was an endeavor that lasted a day, with Haftar immediately responding through his control of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG)–the militia forces tasked (and paid by the Libyan state) to guard the country’s oil facilities.

Production at Sharara went online on Sunday, June 7th, while production at El Feel went online the following day. El Feel, which had been heavily damaged over the long shut-down, started with only 12,000 bpd and was supposed to return to full capacity in 14 days. Late on June 8th, the oilfields were stormed and production was stopped again on the 9th, with the NOC again declaring force majeure on Sharara exports. That was a relief to OPEC–struggling with oil production cuts and non-compliance–if not to Libya.

What it means is that Turkey popped the cork on the champagne too soon. The Turks and the GNA may have pushed Haftar out of key areas in his push to take over Tripoli, and retaken control of western Libya, but they will hit a wall trying to go much further.

Having failed to take Tripoli and having faltered in the face of the GNA backed by Turkey, Haftar’s only negotiating power is his control of oil–from production to export terminals. Now that leverage is even more important, and there will not be any sustained production until there is a diplomatic solution, or until Haftar is replaced as the eastern strongman. Now that Haftar has lost the western part of the country, a military solution is less likely, which is exactly what some Haftar allies–both in the east and among his external supporters–are considering now. Either they 1) abruptly step in to back him militarily to relaunch his offensive, which we believe is not likely at this point; 2) persuade him to negotiate; 3) force a partition; 4) find a new partner in the east.

While many were optimistic that a ceasefire would come about to allow production to return, the GNA is not on board. The ceasefire was Egypt’s idea, and is largely viewed by the GNA (and Turkey) as an attempt to buy time for Haftar and allies to help him regroup. Egypt’s ceasefire and road map plan is supported by Russia and the UAE (both Haftar allies) and calls for the creation of a presidential council (elected), the dismantling of militias and the withdrawal of foreign fighters. The GNA, emboldened, now feels as though it has the upperhand and does not need to bargain from this lowly position. It believes (believed) that Haftar was sufficiently weakened–hence the immediate shut down of production this week.

OilPrice.com



8 Comments on "The War For Libya’s Oil"

  1. Richard Guenette on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 12:17 pm 

    The US is trying to bring lawlessness to the world, not “democracy”.

  2. Theedrich on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 1:30 pm 

    Jeezus sez Whites should commit suicide. Pelosi, Queen of Reps, agrees — as did Captain Ahab Lincoln of yore, who did his best to fulfill the godly command and slaughtered 820,000 Whites to negrify the U.S.  Today the only thing that matters besides filling the treasuries of BigJews like Sörös is finishing off the remaining Euro-Americans and Whites generally.

    The Blacks are now on a tear, burning down and pillaging everything they can, driven by Yid agitprop and encouraged by thousands of genosuicidal White zombies with cans of spray paint.  Because, the media claim, Coon lives matter.  The Commie media love it.

    Meanwhile vast amounts of money are being stolen by central banks, the American Federal Reserve first among them.  The Washington DeepState is awash with swamp creatures of all sorts, thriving off of anti-Trump rhetoric.  (The mustached warmonger, John Bolton, is now doing his best to stab the president in the back with a new diatribe in book form.)  Congress, besides abasing itself before the savage Negro god, is about to invent another $trillion (or more) out of thin air to keep the economy on life support.  Legalized crime is such fun!

    Aside from the approved narrative, another news item comes into view: 
    BILLIONAIRE KOCH NETWORK:  ‘CRITICAL’ TO INCREASE LEGAL IMMIGRATION WHILE 30M AMERICANS ARE JOBLESS:

    “In a letter to White House advisers Jared Kushner and Larry Kudlow, the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity (AFP) and LIBRE Initiative ask Trump not to halt or end the H-1B, J-1, L-1, H-2B, and OPT visa programs that force millions of Americans to compete for white-collar jobs against cheaper foreign workers.

    Instead, AFP and LIBRE Initiative executives ask that Trump increase legal immigration.”

    In other words, the multi-billionaires and Davos elites couldn’t care less about Americans.  It’s all about reducing the globalists’ labor costs and getting short-term gains, regardless of the further racial disfiguration and disintegration of the U.S.

    And Whitey snores on.

  3. joe on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 1:51 pm 

    Hey America, while you’ve been debating whether or not George Floyd’s life was worth a damn. Did you miss the outbreak of ww3?

    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-how-israeli-annexation-may-trigger-a-multi-front-mideast-war-within-weeks-1.8919289

  4. CONVICT-19 on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 1:56 pm 

    if i’m whwitey supertard president trump i would hand over america’s soveign to the stamp sized eurotardland bureacrats right now because bureacurats are always good people who puts your interests at the top, like #1, especially those trustly hard drinkers, enjoyer of alchohol. i have many friends who are habitual enjoyers of alcholhol and they are extremely patient. so much so that i put all my trust in them and my trusty luke 22:36. everywhere i go i always rely on alchohol abusers, bureaucrats, pot smokers, cigarette smokers to get my cars fixed and other things, of course these people love supremacist muzzies whihch is an added bennies

  5. makati1 on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 6:22 pm 

    Totally correct Richard. The plundering terrorists, known as Amerika, are to blame for most, if not all, of the world’s problems today.

  6. makati1 on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 6:24 pm 

    “In other words, the multi-billionaires and Davos elites couldn’t care less about Americans. It’s all about reducing the globalists’ labor costs and getting short-term gains, regardless of the further racial disfiguration and disintegration of the U.S.”

    Well put Theedrich, but the dumbed down, brainwashed Amerikans will never accept the truth. Few realize that their masters are not Amerikans, they are multi-nationalists with no country loyalties and multiple country passports.

  7. makati1 on Sun, 14th Jun 2020 6:27 pm 

    Anon, obviously that 6:24pm post is delusional Davy, the Missery Jackass.

  8. peakyeast on Wed, 17th Jun 2020 3:42 am 

    I would say that excessive breeding are the cause of most our problems today…

    With <1 billion people we could actually have had a much much better future and present.

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