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The Great Power Politics Behind Nord Stream II

The Great Power Politics Behind Nord Stream II thumbnail

Nord Stream II is proving to be one of the most politically contentious pipelines of all time. The project is making gradual progress, but remains vulnerable to the fragile state of the EU-Russian energy relationship. This took another body blow November 25 with the Russian seizure of two Ukrainian gunboats and a tug boat by force in the Kerch Strait, which links the Black and Azov Seas.

The significance of Nord Stream II goes far beyond the volumes of gas it will carry. By forming a critical element of Russia’s ambitious plans to bypass the Soviet-built Ukrainian Gas Transmission System (GTS), it will potentially leave a power vacuum in the heart of central Europe, and nature, as the saying goes, abhors a vacuum.

US President Donald Trump has waded into the debate, arguing that Nord Stream II will make Europe, and Germany in particular, ever more dependent on Russian gas. Trump advocates US LNG as an alternative.

Pipeline economics

However, both Russia’s ability to circumvent the Ukrainian GTS and Trump’s ambitions for US LNG may be over-stated.

In Europe, LNG provides a price ceiling for, rather than competition to, Russian pipeline imports. Volumes of the latter have risen in the last two years to record levels at peak demand times. In contrast, Europe’s LNG terminals saw utilisation rates of just 27% on average in 2017, up from 25% in 2016.

So unimpressed is Germany with LNG that it has yet to construct its first…



31 Comments on "The Great Power Politics Behind Nord Stream II"

  1. Cloggie on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 11:48 am 

    Not a snowball’s chance in hell that chocolate oligarch and neocon b*ttboy Porky will succeed in escalating his little war against Russia:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/merkel-and-putin-agree-to-more-talk-on-ukraine/

    By March this kosher troublemaker will be history after the elections, with current approval rating single digit.

  2. Cloggie on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 11:57 am 

    Bloomberg thinks that sanctions against Europe are a bad idea over Nord Stream 2.

    The Right (and Wrong) Way to Deal With Nord Stream 2

    U.S. sanctions against European companies are a bad idea.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-27/nord-stream-2-the-right-and-wrong-response-for-america

    Bloomberg has already given up on the NWO project and is (correctly) afraid of severe anti-Americanism in Europe. And they should be afraid.

    From the statements by Hillary Clinton it becomes obvious that the US elites are very afraid of European populism:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit

    We are NOT going to pay double for US fossil fuel, which we can get for half the money from Russia.

    Have you seen what is happening is France? They are on the verge of martial law because of fossil fuel price levels.

    Stick your fracked garbage in a place where the sun doesn’t shine.

  3. Cloggie on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 12:07 pm 

    https://www.reuters.com/video/2018/11/29/germany-dismisses-withdrawal-from-nord-s?videoId=486682878

    “Germany dismisses withdrawal from Nord Stream 2”

    https://www.rt.com/business/445150-german-minister-nord-stream-ukraine/

    “Berlin says crisis in Ukraine & Nord Stream 2 pipeline are two separate issues”

    And of course a slightly different take from Henry Ford’s “World Single Most Problem”:

    https://www.khodorkovsky.com/?m

    “The Kerch Response: Punishing Putin’s Media Manipulators”

    “Calls to suspend the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) project – a gas pipeline being built under the Baltic sea to connect Germany directly to Russia’s energy grid – is an excellent example of innovative policy change. “

  4. Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 2:20 pm 

    dictator putin will be gone soon

  5. Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 2:21 pm 

    this is no longer something controlled by one man, like comrade Xi or Putin, that’s weak. It is no longer supertards Founders’s republic, it’s a conglomeration of all super complexes…yeah sometimes Trump has a say but he can’t be master of everything?

    All I’m saying is, if you’re still paying attention is that supertard’s “deep state” — if they decide — Putin is no more and we have the only thing left PBB

    “deep state” implies an opponent of Trump, a single person, a frail individual, not a collection of supertards.

  6. dissident on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 5:11 pm 

    Suck it Banderite maggot. Putin will be around, popularly elected, long after the fake Soviet concocted “state” called Ukraine falls apart.

    The EU has a simple choice. Either continue buying cheap, predictable Russian piped gas. Or take its chances on the global LNG market which includes the high growth consumers like China. LNG also costs more than piped gas since a lot of energy and infrastructure are required to distribute it.

    It is only up to Russia to decide which route it uses to sell its gas. Ludicrous, illegal attempts by NATO blowhards to force Russia to transit its gas through Banderastan (formerly known as Ukraine) are failing and never had a chance to succeed. If Washington’s minions in the EU decide to boycott Russian gas not sold via Pukeraine, then Russia has new massive export capacity to China which will come on line in 2019. The EU can then go and eat some fine US-peddled LNG cake.

    BTW, the US had 5 billion cubic meters per year of export capacity for natural gas in 2017. When the US gets to 150 billion m^3 per year, then Trump should let us know.

  7. makati1 on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 5:18 pm 

    dissident, you have the right picture of things. The EU stops kissing the US ass, or it freezes. It cannot afford US LNG even if the US could provide it, which it cannot and never will. Russia and China are gaining leverage/power by funding infrastructure and supplying necessities, not bombing women and children. We live in very exciting times.

  8. Chrome Mags on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 10:06 pm 

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/oil-markets-us-china-trade-opec-meeting-in-focus.html

    ‘Oil prices soar more than 4.5 percent after US, China suspend trade hostilities’

    This may not be pertinent to the topic, but had to slip it in here because a week or so ago I stated the stock market and oil will go up again if the trade tariffs with China are not raised Jan. 1st. Well, here we are, the Trump has folded or should I say China called his bluff. In any case, stocks futures way up and oil on the rise again just like I predicted, i.e. that oil price dropping had nothing to do with supply but because of concerns about the tariffs planned to get hiked to 25% Jan. 1.

    Maybe it’s time to give me that lofty expert rating.

  9. I AM THE MOB on Sun, 2nd Dec 2018 11:25 pm 

    We need to nuke Russia and kill Putin

    They are making bank off of their cheap oi..That could be US oil..

    We need a false flag! blamed on Russia!

    “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”
    — Joseph Stalin

  10. Anon on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 12:12 am 

    Why not Russia shut down Nord Stream-2 and offer a few more Turk Stream.
    Any interest in SouthStream (play 2).

  11. Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 12:12 am 

    “We need to nuke Russia and kill Putin”

    In the thirties they did exactly the same to Germany. First beating the war drums for years and preparing everything for the slaughter of the best people of the white race. And once they and their soviet and british buddies were done killing and raping Germans, they organized a showtrial and invented a holohoax to finish them off completely.

    The mobster, davy, boat and this tard idiot are outright criminals. Thank God the mobster crowd has decided that their Anglo water carriers need to disappear from history. Won’t belong until some spark will set North-America on fire and we get rid of these horse thieves and murderers.

  12. Anon on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 12:27 am 

    @Mob (on Sun): You need to be a job applicant for Pedro’s cabinet

  13. Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 12:42 am 

    America has found its own Merkel, its called Warren:

    https://www.newsweek.com/warren-trump-embraces-dictators-threatens-democracy-1237872

    “President Trump’s actions and instincts align with those of authoritarian regimes around the globe,” Warren said. “He embraces dictators of all stripes. He cozies up to white nationalists. He undermines the free press and incites violence against journalists.”

    She probably means free kosher press:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/19/opinion/kurtz-murdoch-tweets/index.html

  14. Free Speech Message Board on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 1:10 am 

    There is no hope.

    The US is a bankrupt warmongering police state.

    The elites control the media, Hollywood, Wall Street, and the government.

    The ruling powers have turned everyone into hypocrites, liars, cowards, and criminals.

    Nazis ridiculed Obama when he pulled troops out of Iraq and the media played endless stories about the rise of ISIS, but Nazis who thought Trump would end the wars are now finding out that the elites will treat Trump the same way if he dares end US wars.

    Nazis who thought Trump would pay off the US debt are now finding out that he won’t.

    Some Americans thought Trump was obliviously part of the establishment since he strongly supported the police state and the media gave 24/7 coverage to Clinton and Trump while ignoring Gary Johnson.

    Trump is either naive, being drugged, being threatened by the Deep State, or is a willing accomplice, but the USA is clearly too far gone to be saved.

    The best options at this stage are to go Galt and buy guns, gold, and food or wander the world as a nameless, stateless nomad and wait for the US Ponzi economy to collapse, martial law to be declared, Civil War 2.0 to break out, and WWIII with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to start.

    Wake up.

    Think.

    Pass the word.

  15. Theedrich on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 1:42 am 

    The best NS2 solution would be to let Ukraine implode and utterly dissolve due to its many self-contradictions;  this would be followed by the friendly absorption of Ukraine by Muscovy, following which the Nachtigall party could join with similarly thinking groups in отечество Russia, and a firm economic-political pact could weld Deutschland and Russland together permanently to the mutual benefit of both.  The Davos elites (e.g., Sörös & accomplices) would then enjoy their communal mental breakdown in a Yankee media frenzy.  (After all, they control the media of the “free” world.)

    Subsequently, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo and the DeepState would all die of heart attacks.  The best of all possible worlds.

  16. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 4:51 am 

    “This may not be pertinent to the topic, but had to slip it in here because a week or so ago I stated the stock market and oil will go up again if the trade tariffs with China are not raised Jan. 1st. Well, here we are, the Trump has folded or should I say China called his bluff.”
    BS, this is a short term stop not a long term solution (90days). Both sides gave in because both sides realize where this is going. It is likely not solved but at least they are trying but you decide to politicize this as a “Trump folding”. You liberals are so blind by ideology.

    “In any case, stocks futures way up and oil on the rise again just like I predicted, i.e. that oil price dropping had nothing to do with supply but because of concerns about the tariffs planned to get hiked to 25% Jan. 1.”
    OH, just like you predicted?? We get a one day result and now you are an expert?? Now we have someone who can predict oil prices. The economy is not fixed and all we have to do is look at how markets have reacted to this news to understand that. The underlying reality is not part of what is driving the markets or oil prices. It is fear and greed.

    “Maybe it’s time to give me that lofty expert rating.”
    LOL, you are joking right?

  17. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 4:54 am 

    “The mobster, davy, boat and this tard idiot are outright criminals. Thank God the mobster crowd has decided that their Anglo water carriers need to disappear from history. Won’t belong until some spark will set North-America on fire and we get rid of these horse thieves and murderers.”

    The whining Words of a true extremist who has been beaten. Neder read what you said and tell me if there is anything intellectual in it.

  18. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:00 am 

    Maybe they see the writing on the wall that oil dynamics are increasingly driven by three countries not a OPEC block.

    “In Historic Decision, Qatar Unexpectedly Says Will Leave OPEC Jan. 1”
    https://tinyurl.com/y7upmp95

    “Just days before the cartel (along with its outside accomplices) is due to meet in Vienna for what could be another historic meeting, OPEC is dissolving right before our very eyes, as the perceived “US influence” over Saudi Arabia has strained ties within the bloc. As we pointed out on Friday, the increasingly “problematic” perception that Saudi Arabia is accelerating production to appease President Trump – and subsequently that the entire bloc’s policy is now subject to undue US influence – has reportedly brought several OPEC members to the verge of mutiny.”

  19. Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:01 am 

    Theedrich, don’t write off the French. The deplorable revolution just started there. A hard Brexit would suit Macron fine and force him to play the Russian card as well.

    Expect some major boat bumping in the “English” Channel if they are foolish enough to follow the Farage-Johnson road.

  20. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:07 am 

    “Bill Black: Deutsche Bank Crimes Could Trigger Next Global Crisis”
    https://tinyurl.com/ybhyczln

    “Deutsche Bank (DB) poses as what is called a ‘National Champion’ bank and the largest bank by far in Germany, but it’s actually the largest criminal enterprise in Germany. This is quite a statement because VW is such a massive fraud…It is insane that we allow Deutsche Bank to go from fraud to fraud to fraud…They cheat on everything else you can possibly imagine and, typically, they are getting caught, which is also not a very good sign in terms of their competence even as thieves. Even in the United States, there has been reluctance to crack down on Deutsche Bank…”

    “This is going to continue until something dramatic changes. Eventually, they can cause the next crisis…There will be a bailout in these circumstances, but that could help trigger another economic crisis. When the largest bank in the third largest economy in the world is completely dysfunctional, then the German economy is more likely to go into recession as well. That is one of the potential sources of the next recession, and you can see lots of people warning that there are signs that a serious recession is pretty likely relatively soon. Relatively could be two years.” Professor Black, who was a top regulator in the S&L crisis, says, “The whole system weakens itself because it gets caught in this big lie that says we have to pretend that Deutsche Bank is a bank instead of a criminal enterprise.”

  21. Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:14 am 

    aswang according to high school dropout nedertard, w/o bachelor degree, nukular weapons don’t exist. he said ((supertards)) lie about everything including Stanley Kubrick. Explain how you get “brillian flashes” w/o nukular

  22. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:15 am 

    Neders PBM fantasy is evaporating. His EU house of cards shaking. Neder, where is the CW2 at now? LOL. You are just a clown trumpeting a lost cause. I am not sure who is more hilarious you are billy.

    “Explaining France’s Grassroots “Yellow Vest” Movement – And Why It’s Spreading Across Europe”
    https://tinyurl.com/y97mcmyz

    “For three weeks, tens-of-thousands of French protesters have donned yellow vests and marched throughout Paris. While the “yellow vest” movement began on November 17 as a grassroots protest against president Emmanuel Macron’s gas tax – levied in the name of climate change, it has morphed into a general rage against the French government in general at a time when Macron’s approval rating is at an all time low.”

    “An organic, leaderless protest movement with no clear ideology has emerged in France. I’ve been waiting for this since 2011. Let me explain the French Spring to you.
    Firstly, why the colour yellow? In traditional French culture, yellow represents the Mediterranean regions of France which always felt oppressed by Paris. These protests represent ancient regional grievances.
    Secondly, why the vests? In the French psyche, the lack of arms represents ‘helplessness’. The protests are about marginalisation and the impotence felt by ordinary people.
    A respected Lebanese anthropologist has studied the protests and concluded that the burning of cars represents ‘anger’. These protesters appear to be unhappy about something, and it’s more than just typical French grumpiness.
    In overturning cars the yellow vests are symbolically overturning the entire Cartesian premise of France. This is not merely against the authoritarian Macron but a revolt against the centuries old republican order.
    Experts are already warning of a ‘domino effect’ leading the protests to spread from France to neighbouring countries. In all of this it’s not clear how we in the East should respond, aside from calling on the French authorities to respect the right to protest.”

  23. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:21 am 

    “France’s Meltdown, Macron’s Disdain”
    https://tinyurl.com/ychplkp3

    “Unemployment in France is not only at an alarmingly high level (9.1%); it has been been alarmingly high for years. The number of people in poverty is also high (8.8 million people, 14.2% of the population). Economic growth is effectively non-existent (0.4% in the third quarter of 2018, up from 0.2% the previous three months). The median income (20,520 euros, or $23,000, a year,) is unsustainably low. It indicates that half the French live on less than 1710 euros ($1946) a month. Five million people are surviving on less than 855 euros ($ 973) a month.”

    “When Minister of the Interior Gérard Collomb resigned in on October 3, he spokeof a “very degraded situation” and added that in many areas “the law of the strongest — drug-traffickers and radical Islamists — has taken the place of the Republic.” He was simply confirming the chilling assessments of “out of favor” commentators such as Éric Zemmour, author of Le Suicide Français, and Georges Bensoussan, author of Une France Soumise (A Submissive France). Riots are frequent; they indicate the growing inability of the government to maintain order. Public transport strikes, which took placeduring the entire spring of 2018, were accompanied by demonstrations and an enthusiastic looting of banks and shops. France’s victory at the soccer World Cup in July was followed by jubilation, which quickly gave way to violence by groups who broke store windows and attacked the police.”

  24. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 5:31 am 

    Europe imports around 11 million barrels of oil a day..Remember just a small 4 percent shortage in america back in 1973 caused all hell to break lose..Imagine when there is 25-30 percent shortage in Europe coming up..

    When people learn the worlds oil supplies are running out..They will lose all hope and feel like they have nothing to lose..And then they will be willing to do anything!

  25. Antius on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 6:41 am 

    An excellent article from Tim Morgan, detailing the cause of our predicament, the likely outcomes and political consequences.

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/12/01/139-the-surplus-energy-economy/

    One significant point: The energy cost of energy (ECOE) of fossil fuels is rising, due to declining surplus energy. This is the primary reason behind declining prosperity in the western world and slowing prosperity growth just about everywhere else. By the mid-2020s, renewable energy ECOE will be lower than fossil fuels. However, ECOE will remain higher than fossil fuels are even today, and a factor of 10 higher than fossil fuels during the boom years of the mid-20th century.

    Tim is somewhat vague about the reasons for this. But the primary reason is low power density. Technology can make renewable energy converters more efficient, easier to manufacture and quicker and easier to assemble. Economy of scale can drive down ECOE as well, at least up to a point. But these are approaching limits already and there is no escaping the fact that wind and solar energy systems require far more processed materials to construct per unit power than legacy thermodynamic power plants.

    https://fhr.nuc.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/05-001-A_Material_input.pdf

    The idea that renewable energy can seamlessly substitute fossil fuels allowing a way of life that is comparable to what we have grown accustomed is not realistic. At best, they imply in a ceiling to ECOE. Hence, much of the work of this century concerns ways of helping people live well with declining prosperity. This will imply very different ways of living.

  26. Antius on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 6:49 am 

    “When people learn the worlds oil supplies are running out..They will lose all hope and feel like they have nothing to lose..And then they will be willing to do anything!”

    Yeah, remember what happened the last time people in Germany were “willing to do anything”? I think there is a strong possibility that the tonne of bricks will ultimately fall onto the same people again. It’s not like they aren’t to blame for the shit storm unfolding across the western world.

    Except this time, the gas chambers will have rammed earth walls and will use chlorine produced by wind/solar electrolysis of sea water 🙂

  27. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 7:22 am 

    “But the primary reason is low power density. Technology can make renewable energy converters more efficient, easier to manufacture and quicker and easier to assemble. Economy of scale can drive down ECOE as well, at least up to a point. But these are approaching limits already and there is no escaping the fact that wind and solar energy systems require far more processed materials to construct per unit power than legacy thermodynamic power plants.”

    AND, that is just energy as if that is the only diminishing return, low density, economies of scale issues we are facing.

  28. Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 7:25 am 

    “Neders PBM fantasy is evaporating. His EU house of cards shaking. Neder, where is the CW2 at now? ”

    No you fool, I have always said there is going to be a civil war in both western Europe AND America. This is a revolt against the globalists. Like in the US this is a deplorables revolt. It is certainly not pro-American. And they are mostly white. No muslims.

    “Firstly, why the colour yellow? In traditional French culture, yellow represents the Mediterranean regions of France which always felt oppressed by Paris. These protests represent ancient regional grievances.
    Secondly, why the vests? In the French psyche, the lack of arms represents ‘helplessness’. The protests are about marginalisation and the impotence felt by ordinary people.”

    Sigh, Americans splaining things to us. Every Frenchman is obliged to have such a vest in the car for safety reasons. THAT is the only reason they are wearing them, pure practicality.

  29. Davy on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 7:35 am 

    “No you fool, I have always said there is going to be a civil war in both western Europe AND America. This is a revolt against the globalists. Like in the US this is a deplorables revolt. It is certainly not pro-American. And they are mostly white. No muslims.”
    Quantify “mostly”….It is all French society except the entrenched privileged class. You are gagging and stuttering on your racism.

    “Sigh, Americans splaining things to us. Every Frenchman is obliged to have such a vest in the car for safety reasons. THAT is the only reason they are wearing them, pure practicality.”
    Sure thing neder except the guy is not American. He is Lebanese and claims not to be Muslim.

    “pure practicality”
    LMFAO

  30. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 9:03 am 

    Clogg

    The globalist? you mean like Trump who owns properties in dozens of countries worldwide? or like Putin who is the worlds richest man?

    Sorry you can’t have it both ways..You can’t worship the rich and then say you are raging against them..

  31. I AM THE MOB on Mon, 3rd Dec 2018 9:45 am 

    Sir David Attenborough: collapse of civilization is on the horizon

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/03/david-attenborough-collapse-civilisation-on-horizon-un-climate-summit

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