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Page added on November 8, 2018

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Saudi Arabia Is Evaluating A Break Up Of OPEC

Public Policy

In potentially groundbreaking news – which failed to generate a market response as it hit at the same time as the FOMC statement – Saudi Arabia’s top government-funded think tank is said to be studying the possible effects on oil markets of a breakup of OPEC, a research effort which the WSJ called “remarkable” for a country that has dominated the oil cartel for nearly 60 years.

The OPEC study aims to “assess the short/medium-term consequences of a dissolution of OPEC,” according to an overview reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. It is intended to determine how the global oil market, and Saudi finances, would look “if coordination between oil producing countries disappear,” according to the overview.

The overview describes two scenarios to investigate, if OPEC isn’t in the picture:

  1. All big oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, act competitively—fighting each other for market share;
  2. Saudi Arabia, instead, attempts to leverage its massive oil output alone to help balance global supply and demand in an attempt to keep oil prices steady—similar to the role that members say OPEC plays today.

The timing of the report, which is hardly a arbitrary, coincides with rising pressures on the Saudi government, including from the U.S., where President Trump has accused the cartel of pushing up oil prices, and from investors who distanced themselves from the kingdom after the brutal killing of a U.S.-based Saudi journalist.

Just as remarkably, while the think tank’s president, Adam Sieminski told the WSJ that the study “hadn’t been triggered by Mr. Trump’s statements”, a senior adviser familiar with the project said it provided an opportunity to take into account the criticism from Washington.

Depending on the findings, the study could offer a defense of the cartel and the Saudi role in it; alternatively it could potentially advocate for a repeat of November 2014, when the cartel was effectively dissolved for a period of time.

The research project doesn’t reflect an active debate inside the government over whether to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the near term, according to people familiar with the matter.

Careful not to further aggravate political relations with the US, and other nations, senior Saudi officials said the study – which was seen as a high priority economic-policy inquiry, was ordered by Sieminski and “that the analysis isn’t unusual and explores topics his researchers normally delve into.”

The concern is that the optics of Saudi Arabia contemplating exiting OPEC at a time when the US crackdown on Iran may remove over 1 million b/d from the market – once the waivers to 8 nations expire – will hardly go unnoticed.

To avoid political overtones, the report is reportedly part of a wider rethinking among senior government officials in Saudi Arabia about OPEC, according to the people familiar with the matter. Officials are grappling with the assumption—shared increasingly in the oil industry—that oil demand will one day peak, the senior Saudi adviser said.

In this context, the study is seen among senior officials as an exercise in gaming out how markets might react if demand falls so much that OPEC loses sway and disbands, the adviser said.

“The kingdom knows demand for oil won’t last forever…so you need to think past OPEC,” the senior adviser said. “You also have a NOPEC act being considered” in Washington.

The think tank, Riyadh-based King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, or Kapsarc, bills itself as an independent research institution. Its staff advises dominant Saudi agencies such as Saudi Aramco and the Saudi energy ministry.

Sieminski said the study was building on previous research that looked at the role of OPEC’s spare capacity in stabilizing oil markets. The earlier work concluded that the absence of such a cushion “would lead to a more volatile price environment and be negative for the global economy,” he said.

Meanwhile, even though there is no debate in the Saudi government about disbanding OPEC soon, senior government officials have recently started to question the longer-term rationale for the cartel because of the clout that Saudi Arabia and Russia alone can have on markets, according to another senior Saudi adviser.

Two prominent Saudi government advisers, both central to the formation of the kingdom’s oil policy, are scheduled to meet researchers on the project weekly, according to the overview. Sieminski said contacts with the Saudi energy ministry were to provide data for the study.

While oil has failed to move so far on the report, WTI has dropped for 9 days in a row, and is now in a bear market, down 21% from its October highs…

… as expectations of oil output being removed from the market have been doused after the Trump admin provided critical oil import waivers to Iran’s biggest trade partners, thereby having virtually no impact on the price of oil.

zerohedge

 



19 Comments on "Saudi Arabia Is Evaluating A Break Up Of OPEC"

  1. JuanP on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 6:54 pm 

    To the board. Davy has been constantly insulting me and falsely accusing me of stealing his identity for weeks and I held back out of consideration for others, but I intend to fuck with him until next year now. Sorry for what’s coming. You can blame Davy for it as he is 100% responsible. Thank Davy for it!

  2. Davy on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 6:58 pm 

    words from dirty juan

    JUANP PUPPETEERING
    I HATE DAVY on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 8:10 am Davy has so many enemies, including ones he doesn’t know about, it’s unbeleivable. Why? Because Davy is the biggest fucking douche bag to walk this planet. Yeah, I’m not on ur list and I fucking hate ur guts as well Davy boy. God, how I wish Davy boy and me went to school together. I would have punded his fucking face and loved it.
    JUANP PUPPETEERING
    I HATE DAVY on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 8:18 am Forgot to say why I hate u. Every part, every fiber of who ur reeks like the most stinking garbage dump imagainable- u make the smell of rotting flesh smell better than the odor u emit. U have so many goddamned enemies u can’t keep track. Its because you are a vile quasi human wretch. EVERY NEGATIVE HUMAN TRAIT U EMBODY IN SPADES. NO WONDER U ARE SO UNIVERSALLY HATED.
    JUANP ADMITTING
    JuanP on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 8:59 am OK, Davy, I take credit for fucking with you. I will fuck with you for as long as I can; I enjoy doing it. ROFLMFAO! Come on, Exceptionalist, grow a pair and take it like a man. It is time you fought some real battles and stopped hiding behind your murdering, criminal, terrorist government. Go take back the streets of St. Louis! LOL! You are such a sad fuck, Exceptionalist! Not even your children love you!
    DAVY SHOWING DISCOVERY TO NEDER
    Davy on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 9:09 am Satisfied neder?
    NEDER AGREEING
    Cloggie on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 9:26 am JuanP, perhaps you concentrate on more positive subjects, like perma-culture and scale back a little on personal attacks.
    DAVY IDENTITY THEFT
    Davy on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 4:11 pm I forgot to add, I hate you too nederdumbassNazis. Ive called you a disgusting semi-human on many occasions. Though are the best friend I have in this world, and will ever have, I still hate you.
    JUAN P DECEPTIVELY BACK PEDDLING
    JuanP on Sat, 3rd Nov 2018 8:19 pm Someone is stealing my identity and reposting old comments after editing them. It has to be Delusional Davy. Please tell me we don’t have more than one derandged lunatic on the board! With the Exceptionalist it is more than enough. ROFLMFAO! You are all a bunch of freaks. I am the only one here who is NOT bat shit crazy! I swear! I am sane! I swear! ROFLMFAO!

    JuanP on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 9:22 am Ridiculous Davy “DIRTY JUAN IDENTITY THEFT” Do you have any evidence to back up your ridiculous claims that I engage in identity theft, moron? No, you don’t, yet you keep throwing the first stone. Well, I promise you that I will make your life hell until you stop. Enjoy it! I am going to be on your ass until at least next year now, prick. You asked for it. You will regret it like you always do because I can beat the crap out of you all the time if I want.

    JuanP on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 9:26 am To the board. Davy has been constantly insulting me and falsely accusing me of stealing his identity for weeks and I held back out of consideration for others, but I intend to fuck with him until next year now. Sorry for what’s coming. You can blame Davy for it as he is 100% responsible. Thank Davy for it!

  3. JuanP on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 7:06 pm 

    God, you are a fucking retard or an incredible lunatic! Somebody here is posting comments using my name. Not only that, but some of these comments are written using old comments I made in the past, and edited and added to by the joker (my congrats to the lunatic doing that, by the way, it is a source of great laughs) posting those comments.
    The fact that you have old comments I made in a file is extremely suspicious, IMO, since the person doing this is obviously collecting old comments, too. What a coincidence! This is also symptomatic of multiple mental disorders that you suffer from, Davy.
    So, you are either the joker posting these comments and are now just pretending to be enraged, motherfucker, or you are getting played like a fine violin, moron. What are you, lunatic, fool, or both?

  4. Davy on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 10:00 pm 

    How does it feel to have your cock cleaned dirty juan?

    Did your sugar daddy teach you to play with yourself when you are losing. LOL.

    Yummy, yummy, yummy, I covet your cum in my tummy.

    GHUNG, ONLOOKER: Give me ur cock or give me death.

  5. Davy on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 10:24 pm 

    Not me above.

  6. Anonymouse on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 11:01 pm 

    The exceptionalturd, lunatic, fool, or both?

    Both. Definitely both. Absolutely, all of the above.

  7. Theedrich on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 11:15 pm 

    President Woodrow Wilson, Ph.D., died a madman.  He pretended to dislike war (they all do), but his “moral purity” and intellectual superiority induced him to send American soldiers to destroy Europe and help Marxism take over Russia.  Whoops!  Sorry, people, but we just had to kill our relatives, the Germans.  Woody also believed that democracy was the wrong form of government, because the masses were much too stupid to know how to spend their own money;  only government experts knew the right way to do that.

    Then came Franklin D. Roosevelt, the designer of the Pearl Harbor attack and savior of the Jews, with his war to kill yet more Germans and save the Soviets.  He also made a Faustian bargain with the king of Araby to protect the latter’s family’s hold on power in perpetuity, in return for Saudi oil.  And with that and the subsequent realization by moneyed sources (such as KSA) everywhere and that special “protected group,” that you could buy influence in Washington, D.C., and wag the Yankee dog, we were off to the races.  Today the Davos elites own the Demonic Party and the mainstream media in the West, and have devised ever new “crises” by which to enrich themselves at the expense of the serfs in Flyoverland.  The economic playbook which instructs business to source goodies from the cheapest possible producers in outhouse countries now rules the elitest-orchestrated game, of which oil is only one part, albeit an important one.  And importing human sludge from the outhouse pits ensures votes for the Demonics in a demographically changed country.

    Meanwhile, lethal narcotics pervade the heartland, destroying countless lives and families, while the media encourage Whites to commit genosuicide through racial miscegenation.  Never mind the tens of thousands of years of evolution by which the highest races came to be differentiated from the lowest.  Only momentary money and political power matter.  In pursuit thereof, the unending string of stunts and tricks to fool the Cretinity-believing plebs will ensure that Sörös and his friends win.

    After all, the Davos Biggies are the ones who will die with the most toys.

  8. Cloggie on Thu, 8th Nov 2018 11:48 pm 

    “Are you sure you want to push Iran in the corner”?

    Stark warning that Iran could behave like Japan:

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/trump’s-iran-policy-meant-start-war-33541

    There are many examples in which pressure policies led to uncontrollable escalation. In December 1941, the Japanese ambassador to the United States issued an ominous warning. If the United States continued its unbearable oil and gas embargo on Japan, then it would be “preferable [for Japan] to fight rather than to yield to pressure.” Five days later, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, killing 2,403 Americans and triggering a direct confrontation between the United States and Japan in the Pacific Ocean. While many consider Pearl Harbor as a surprise attack, it did not come without a warning.

    (The truth is worse: Roosevelt WANTED the Japanese to attack, so he got his desired war with Germany, so he could colonize Europe in a mass murder spree and invent a holohoax to create the fake moral excuse).

    Likewise, Iran will NOT roll over and die and could decide to close off the Straight of Hormuz, which would hurt Europe and China, not the US. Or Iran could even attack KSA and seize oil sources and organize regime change in Riyahd. Perhaps Turkey would join too. And Iraq. The KSA-alliance with US-Israel is at the same time its greatest liability in the eyes of the Muslim world. And then there is the famous Arab incompetence in military matters. Once a camel jockey, always a camel jockey.

    WW3 resulting from this Iran insanity is a real possibility.

    But I cannot escape the intuition that Trump is doing this on purpose, to wreck the empire… and the US itself.

  9. Davy on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 12:14 am 

    THEEDRICH:

    You are in desperate need of getting ur pussy fucked. It would do wonders for ur frame of mind.

    I would be pleased to pump ur pussy, if you will agree to have our children.

  10. Davy on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 12:28 am 

    THEEDRICH:

    The very next time I see u, I want u on ur back with ur legs spread and feet in stirrups, and I want to hear only the following 3 WORDS:

    FUCK THIS PUSSY

    Get it, got it, good.

  11. Davy on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 12:32 am 

    Not my posts above. Theedrich is the most intelligent person on the board, and I agree with everything he says.

  12. clyde on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 12:37 am 

    The following comment is an example of fmr-paultard using Davy’s screen name.

    Davy @ 10:24PM “Not me above”

    Fucking Retard, mind ur own damn business, and stop stealing Davy’s name.

    Fucking Retard, mind ur own damn business, and stop stealing Davy’s name.

  13. Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 3:02 am 

    clydethetard, i’m a tard and a former paultard. i started out as davy-fan, artist former known as davy fan AFDF, fmr-paultard (with dash), Anontarded1. all i ever did was asking master race theedrich to pray to the Holy Mother for blessing because he’s too far gone. he’s all mental and nothing reality based like muzzies. it reminds me of myself, a tard. it’s stupid i hate it. I just call them SENTAPBVs (supremacists extremists nazi tard preachers bumpskied victimhood). I don’t have time to do the silly sock game bro. you can call my contents tarded but i always have contents. for example, i’m opposed to western roman empire because it was long ago and records are forgotten and lost. it was only there so one can promote white supremacy. byzantine is another matter and it’s recent. i said america’s current conditions is like that of byzantine and in this context i asked master race to pray to the holy mother before it’s too late. peace out bro.

  14. makati1 on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 3:04 am 

    “45 Signs That China Is Colonizing America” Many more have been added since this article was written…

    http://www.alt-market.com/articles/802-45-signs-that-china-is-colonizing-america

    Do you speak Mandarin? LOL

  15. Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 3:07 am 

    watch this for a coupel of minutes and found that supetard was praying and it was too late.
    master race edrich is not suptard so he need to pray a lot earlier and more frequent

    https://youtu.be/ASGvE_A3wB0?t=9680

  16. clyde on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 4:40 am 

    Эй, братья, пожалуйста, ударьте антиамериканскую собаку, которую я сделал из гранитного форума

    All is forgiven, my son; however, I must chastise thee to refrain from worshiping the false prophet known as supertard for the antichrist assumes many forms. You must beware, my child, not to violate the covenants of thy Lord and God.

  17. clyde on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 4:43 am 

    I beseech thee, my child, to refrain from providing solace to the great deceiver, supertard.

    Tread most cautiously, my son.

    To suffer the eternal damnations of hell is a period of time outside of any mortal man’s ability to comprehend.

  18. deadly on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 5:51 am 

    Regardless of how it all gets done in the oil world, the oil will flow. If it doesn’t, all hell will break loose.

    Only information from reference material at libraries and any books at the Library of Congress can be used for information gathering.

    Only legitimate information, not the disinfo from hither and yon. Fake news places like the MSM don’t count these days. They are filled with lies, obfuscations and new mass killing killer stories. America needs a National Mass Killing Day on the National Day calendar.

    A National Mass Shooter Day, just to make sure, go for the gusto. A twofer.

    A marine with PTSD waged war on Americans, so it is a war on people who live in America, happens about two times each month for the really big shootout to get noticed.

    Can’t we go back to just plain old riots in the big cities and massive protest in Warshington, DC against wars like the one in Vietnam? Those were better times. Like when the senate wing of the US Capitol building about 45 years or so now, we should get back to those days and leave the mass killing of Americans at bars and concerts days behind.

    It was only four dead in Ohio back then, the original mass shooter, Richard Nixon, gets credit for that one. Wasn’t as bad back then.

    Just one president was assassinated, that’s all.

    A weekly report on CBS on the number of American soldiers dying overseas each week is better than a mass shooter on the streets of America story that loops year round.

    We need to have things get back to normal like it was from 1950 to 1972 when American sons were coming home in boxes. War stories like the Frozen Chosin make for better reading and viewing.

    Nobody is going to believe all of the lies and liars these days, not going to listen to them anymore, they’re lies from liars.

    Why is it that all of the really, really educated predators the likes of Woodrow Wilson and FDR who always can call the all of shots?

    The poor schmucks that are forced to support it all always suffer and are always the last to know.

    It is just not fair.

    The most educated must hate humans and their disdain never ceases towards the average idiot trying to make a living but all there is is nothing anymore. Time for them to die, goodness sakes, they have lived long enough already, time to go.

    So it is time to have the millenials march off to a giant war and the smart people can kill off another generation of people because that is how it gets done. A population control mechanism named war, a simple, short word, legalized murder, a definition of war, does some of the work.

    Diseases used to check the human population, but science and medicine have advanced the knowledge, medical especially.

    It’s gone gonzo, the entire planet is ape-shit crazy, like it was long ago, the good old days are back. lol

  19. deadly on Fri, 9th Nov 2018 5:55 am 

    Like when the senate wing of the US Capitol building about 45 years or so now, was bombed?

    forgot the words ‘was bombed’.

    So, I’ll repeat it.

    Like when the senate wing of the US Capitol building about 45 years or so now, was bombed, we should get back to those days and leave the mass killing of Americans at bars and concerts days behind.

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