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Oil And Iran

Public Policy

The world Is watching and so is oil as the death toll rises in the streets of Iran, where the people revolt against a terrible economy and the lack of any real freedoms and rights. At least 19 people were reported killed in street protests in Iran, while President Hassan Rouhani on one hand defended their right to protest but on the other hand warned he would show “no tolerance” for those who incite unrest. Many arrests have been made and the government of Iran says it may seek the death penalty, for what they say are crimes against God, in demonstrations that have gone on for over 5 days in a row.

President Trump tweeted that ”Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama Administration. The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!”

The uprising in IRAN is just another risk factor in a global oil market that is tightening. Strong global demand and shale oil production that is falling far short of what the Energy Information keeps telling us it is. Reports from the Texas Railroad Commission is telling us that Texas shale oil production has been stagnant and not rising as the production decline rate year over year is taking its toll. Total oil stocks are down a whopping 135M barrels just since April even as U.S. oil production is supposedly at a record high. Bad data is becoming a bigger risk as underinvestment has led to the least amount of oil discoveries in 70 years and the global oil replenishment rate ratio fell to 11 percent this year, down from more than 50 percent in 2012 according to a new report. That is a dangerous situation, especially because of the over estimates of shale oil output.

ETF reports that this has led to the lowest ever volumes of oil discoveries in 2017, Rystad Energy said last week. While the low level of discoveries is not an immediate threat to global oil supply, it could become a threat ten years down the road, according to Rystad Energy.

In ten years’ time, U.S. shale production may peak, at least according to OPEC that sees shale peaking after 2025, although the cartel has conceded that U.S. tight oil has defied previous forecasts and has increased production more than initially expected and will continue to do so in the short term.

This year has seen less than 7 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered globally, a volume as low as last seen in the 1940s, Rystad Energy has estimated. What worries analysts the most is the fact that this year the reserve replacement ratio–the amount of discovered resources relative to the amount of production–was a mere 11 percent, compared to 50 percent in 2012, Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, said.

The other ongoing risk is Venezuela. An explosion over the weekend that hit Venezuela’s largest refinery was an accident waiting to happen. Deferred maintenance and bad management as the Venezuelan government stole money and failed to do even the most basic maintenance for the facility according to sources.

Reuters reported that a former oil minister excoriated Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a newspaper column on Sunday, accusing the leftist leader of behaving like biblical King Herod and plunging the oil-rich nation into economic devastation. Rafael Ramirez, who was the all-powerful head of the oil ministry and state energy company PDVSA for a decade, has long been a rival of Maduro. In recent months, Ramirez has grown increasingly critical of Maduro’s handling of a fourth straight year of recession that has triggered malnutrition, widespread food and medicine shortages, the world’s steepest inflation, and a surge in emigration. A furious Maduro ordered Ramirez to resign as the nation’s United Nations ambassador in New York last month after an article entitled the “The Storm” was perceived as an attack on his government.

We haven’t even got to the cold. Wicked winter weather is causing a surge in oil and natural gas and coal demand. Demand for coal burns hit three-year high causing to temporarily put it above natural gas as the top s U.S. power sources. There are reports that they were shortages of natural gas in Northern Alberta county under state of emergency due to natural gas disruption. The report said that large parts of northern Alberta was under a state of emergency over the weekend due to low natural gas pressure and system outages.

The Energy Report has kept our bullish outlook and we still believe that the double bottom at $26 a barrel was a generational low. Despite all the bearish hype that the market had last year and bad info this year oil looks poised for a big move. Make sure you are hedged! I am hearing from many folks still that were underhedged last year and are now paying the price.

By Phil Flynn

38 Comments on "Oil And Iran"

  1. Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 6:35 pm 

    Iran is back on the false news list in the US again. As usual, it is trying to overthrow the democratically elected government as it has before. It isn’t about government, it’s about $$$ as all of the US instigated ME wars have been. I hope it doesn’t succeed.

    That said, the energy problem is getting worse, especially for the US. The frakers cannot hang on much longer. Even Big Oil is starting to feel the pinch as interest rates rise and their inability to finance all of their debt is going to rise with them. If oil prices increase, the ability to sell it will shrink as fuel prices rise and squeeze the consumer even more. The rock and a hard place.

    This piece of advertising for the oil and gas industry is too fairy-taleish to be believable. “Don’t worry folks! We have at least until 2025 to get it right.” Or, maybe, before New Years 2019. LOL

  2. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 6:37 pm 

    Report finds Baltimore will go bankrupt if changes aren’t made

    Pennsylvania Still Going Bankrupt Friday, Missed Payments Likely

    Dropping like flies! Nazi’s are back and states are going to go bankrupt! Welcome to the 1930’s Great Depression Folks! Check your history!

  3. joe on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 6:45 pm 

    Read up on Operation Ajax. Its a rerun of the oil smash and grab that began with the conversion of the British navy to oil burning rather than simple coal. Millions of Roghingas put out of their home, nobody could care less, why? No oil. One ayotollah in oil rich iran says death to America and they are an existential threat. Seriously, the world is not already in mortal danger with already existing nuclear stock piles? Please. Only one country has ever nuked another and they did it twice for good measure. That country’s people followed the cross and loved Jesus……

  4. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 7:04 pm 

    I love how Rystad cherry picks the year 2012 to argue we found 50 percent that year. Like only finding half of what you need to refill your reserves with oil over 100 dollars a barrel they consider good. LOL

  5. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 7:30 pm 

    Looks like the EIA has some questions that need to be answered! I bet shale has peaked or will peak very soon. And they don’t want the investors to know because they know they will flee and that is how Ponzi’s always collapse.

  6. Boat on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 7:57 pm 


    No, shale has not peaked, oil in general has yet to peak and btu’s from FF has not peaked. In 2020 it will be the same story. The best part? I will be right every day along the way.

  7. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 8:04 pm 


    Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE-SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN

    As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil supply shortage coming as investments, discoveries drop

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia

    We need to discover and bring online two new Saudi Arabia’s worth of production in the next five years to debunk peak oil boat! No pressure!

  8. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 8:06 pm 

    The US Shale Business is “not profitable” and can’t fund itself whether oil is at 100 or 50 dollars a barrel

    MIT Technology Review: Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence

    The world’s largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
    China Government

    Now go ahead boat Lie to yourself. Just tell yourself this “WE WILL NEVER RUN OUT OF OIL” Maybe if you say it enough times Jesus will come back to earth and refill the worlds oil fields! LOL

  9. Boat on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 9:11 pm 


    Is oil profitable. Business seems to grow around 1.3 mbpd since 1950. Can you count barrels? 70 years in reserves just sitting around waiting on producers. He’ll were in a glut
    with OPEC/Russia cutting production. And you want to talk about a shortage? Lol You a Trump fan?

  10. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 9:19 pm 


    Not all oil is equal and is profitable..And we are not in a glut or prices would be 30 dollars a barrel. And the OPEC cuts are laughable 500k barrels a day..I am not talking about a shortage the IEA and Saudi Arabia are..The two world energy authorities. Just face it you can’t handle the thought so because you are a bitch!

  11. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 9:20 pm 


    As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows

    Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil supply shortage coming as investments, discoveries drop

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia

  12. MASTERMIND on Tue, 2nd Jan 2018 9:23 pm 

    Hey Boat

    Energy watchdog IEA warns oil and electricity shortages could develop as investment falls

    Its not just oil shortages that are coming its electricity shortages as well. And don’t worry when your lights go out you will have plenty of entailment going on right outside your windows!

  13. Theedrich on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 12:51 am 

    They call the Iranian riots “spontaneous.”  Likewise, when, on May 11, 1996, the harpy Madeleine Albright, then Secretary of State, was asked by 60 Minutes about the over half a million children killed by the Iraqi sanctions, her response was “It’s a hard choice, but I think, we, think, it’s worth it.” The U.S. has been “sanctioning” Iran for some time now, and the citizenry there is feeling the results.  Unaware that it is Washington that is at the bottom of their suffering, Iranians are blaming their own, admittedly authoritarian, government.  Yankee mouthpieces are spouting the lie that, no, America has nothing to do with the increasing Persian poverty:  it’s all the fault of those merciless mullahs.  One wonders how much money Washington is slipping underhandedly to the “protesters” in that targeted nation.

    The State Department, CIA, NSA, &c. view “sanctions” as the currently most acceptable form of war.  The economic and military situation of the world has recently become increasingly more difficult and dangerous for the direct mass murder of innocents the sadistic U.S. elites have been used to.  Causing starvation or economic collapse of other countries by one indirect (and preferably covert) means or another makes it seem as though the godly City on the Hill is totally innocent.  Security-Council control of U.N. propaganda organs helps a lot, too.  And anyway, we still need the oil from Araby, Iran’s main Muslim enemy, to say nothing of Is-It-Real.  So never mind the impoverishment of millions of Iranians.  It’s a hard choice, but we think it’s worth it.

  14. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 12:55 am

    “Time for (regime) change? Neocons press Trump to sanction Iran over protests”

    “Neocon”, the euphemism of choice.

  15. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 12:57 am 

    About neocons:

  16. deadly on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 6:16 am 

    History goes back a long ways, longer than I can remember. lol

    Iraq and Iran were battling it out tooth and nail in the 80s. Iran marched 500,000 of their young people through mine fields to clear them, so it has been said, anyhow.

    When aren’t they at each other’s throats anywhere in the Middle East? The inhabitants of the Middle East are at each other’s throats all of the time, lasting some 5,000 years now, as old as Damascus, that is the length of time and more they have been at each other’s throats. Should be no big deal.

    In October of 1983, the US Marines were attacked in Lebanon and the French also suffered losses. Purdy much a direct hit and message at the same time.

    France, Russia, Britain, the US, Israel were all selling arms to each side. It is no secret, when there is war, all is fair.

    Both sides were weakened by the eight year war, then Bush the Elder moved in and stole all of Iraq.

    The Chechens were restless in Russia for a while.

    Then a ten year lull in the action, then one day in September of 2001, somebody lost the flight plan somewhere in the air and drove a couple of jets into two big buildings in New York City.

    Nowadays, they’re at everybody’s throats worldwide.

    All is fair in love and war, don’t have to explain much more.

    Flip, flop, it never stops.

    Can’t we just go back to Munich in 1968, capture the Israeli Olympic team, start all over and change a few things?

    It can be a lot more fun than all of the fighting and fussing.

  17. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 12:59 pm 

    Sorry neocons…

    Massive pro-government demonstrations in Iranian big cities.

    Iran won’t be another Syria.

  18. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 1:25 pm 


    with his go to source Putin’s Propaganda network…RT…LOL you are a clown clogg. seriously you and madkat refuse to vet your sources properly. i can tell you never went to college.

  19. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 2:24 pm 

    So who do you propose as credible MSM?


    Your eternal buddies confirm the large pro-government demonstrations:

  20. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 2:40 pm 

    Preview of the breakdown of the leftist “order”, both in the US and Europe and the Soviet-style demise of the US empire aka the West:

    Migrants attacking the 1968 “authorities” and US water carriers, exactly what you want to see happening… so we don’t have to do it.

  21. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 2:49 pm 

    Legal cannabis to generate $40bln, 400,000 jobs: study

    Sorry Clog and Madkat look at Cali go! America is becoming more liberal! Cali will lead the way!

  22. Davy on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 2:56 pm 

    neder whiner, that’s Paris not the US. Don’t blame your failures on the US. Man up and take responsibility for YOUR failures.

  23. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:07 pm 

    Man up and take responsibility for YOUR failures.

    Whopper, be careful with what you wish for.

  24. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:12 pm 


    Cloggie keeps bashing the immigrants.There was an old Simpsons episode about this. Where everyone in Springfield blames the immigrants for all the problems of the city. The number of immigrants who came to america last year was around 1.5 million in a country of around 325 million. Its such a small percent its just a rounding error. People like Clogg think we are being invaded and conquered.

  25. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:15 pm 

    Davy look its the clogg and madkat starter pack

  26. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:28 pm 

    People like Clogg think we are being invaded and conquered.

    What’s wrong with these Trump voters? Why don’t they want to become a third world country?! Beats me.

  27. Hello on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:31 pm 

    >>> The number of immigrants

    High performance negro breeders have the nasty side-effect of high performance breeding.

    Before you know it the 1.5M surplus negros are 10M surplus negros.

    As surplus game is hunted every year, the same does not happen for surplus negros. Maybe that’s a mistake.

  28. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:33 pm 


    Fear builds walls.

    -Roger Waters

    Cali just legalized Weed! Soon everywhere will. And the US is only 4 million barrels a day away from being oil independent. so maybe when those shortages come it will just be the rest of the world that collapses. And America will be the last man standing! Sucks for you!

  29. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:36 pm 


    The black percentage of people in America hasn’t changed in the last fifty years. Because so many are locked up and thrown in jail. According to the census beaura by 2050 blacks are projected to be 13 percent of the total population. The exact same as back in 1950 and currently now. So your breeding dream is just that a dream. And whites are not going to become the minority. They will be the minority if you count all minorities together combined. But comparing one minority like blacks, and Mexicans on their own against whites there will still be double more white people.

  30. Cloggie on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 3:42 pm 

    And whites are not going to become the minority.

    Another “peer-reviewed”, read bat-shit insane, opinion.

    “For U.S. Children, Minorities Will Be The Majority By 2020, Census Says”

    “45% of 18-24-Year-Olds in the US are Part of a Minority Group”

    “Census: Minority youth over take whites in 2020, 50% under 18”

    Consequence: the US are gradually becoming an impotent third world country.

  31. MASTERMIND on Wed, 3rd Jan 2018 4:51 pm 


    Those are not peer reviewed articles. Whites will be the minority if you compared them against all minorities mixed together. But if you compare white people to Mexican or black. There will still be double the amount of whites. Once again you are falling for click bait headlines and not properly vetting your sources.

  32. Theedrich on Thu, 4th Jan 2018 1:21 am 

    MM: “Cali just legalized Weed! Soon everywhere will.”  Yup.  And around 14% of pregnant women in California are now potheads and will give birth to mongoloid idiots for society to take care of for the next four score years.  Democracy at work.

  33. Makati1 on Thu, 4th Jan 2018 3:21 am 

    All the US can do about Iran, China, and Russia is throw tweets and the moron, Nikki Haley, at them. Sanctions no longer work. Russia is made stronger by them. China just ignores them. Iran is going to keep on with BAU, as is N.Korea. The US is a paper tiger.

  34. MASTERMIND on Thu, 4th Jan 2018 6:43 am 


    It was a bunch of potheads who migrated to San Fran who all had babies who turned out to create Silicon Valley. You dumb hateful loser!

  35. Theedrich on Fri, 5th Jan 2018 3:48 am 

    MM: the Frisco nerds are mainly imports.  They are also embued with profound Indian (Hindu) contempt for the untouchables who are not 140+ IQ Silicon Valley experts.  They have not been infected with the asinine Christian masochism you and other parasites love so much.  And by the way, the potheads who migrated to S.F. and their offspring are now homeless, and sleeping, defecating and urinating on the streets there.  The city is a sewer except for the high-rise-dwelling ultra-rich Jews and Asiatics who welcome criminality in it.

  36. MASTERMIND on Fri, 5th Jan 2018 6:51 am 

    Sorry Theedrich Indian people make up less than 8 percent of our entire population. Once again you are just a paranoid loon. i am sorry you hate hippies because you are a mean and bad person. The only thing good about collapse will be seeing people like you suffer a horrible death! Rightly So!

  37. Makati1 on Fri, 5th Jan 2018 7:24 am 

    MM, but 100,000+ of the most intelligent Indians are in Silicon Valley.

    ““When two-thirds or three-quarters of the CEOs in Silicon Valley are from South Asia or from Asia, I think…” Bannon said.”

    My Filipino business partner here has a brother-in-law who is Filipino and is an upper level engineer at Apple. One of the many Asians living there.

  38. MASTERMIND on Fri, 5th Jan 2018 7:46 am 


    You think after the collapse people who prepare will live and thrive! LOL So naive and deluded! People like you wouldn’t last five mins without the rule of law and a prosperous society in place.

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