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Kunstler: The Trend is Not Your Friend

Public Policy

The be-Muellered, bothered, and bewildered American public may find US-China trade talks about as interesting as a rain delay in an Orioles-Chisox game, but the Friday collapse of negotiations may be marked by historians as the day that the global economy died. The Big Box blue-light-special orgy of bargain shopping ran about thirty years, with China exuberantly pumping out cheap consumer goods to feed the US beast-of-Mammon. Americans happily payed for it all with IOUs based on long daisy chains of previous IOUs. Tom Friedman of The New York Times said it would last forever. Alas….

The paradigm kicked off for one simple reason: energy flows dictated capital flows. By the mid-1980s, the non-OPEC world was once again swimming in oil from the last great bonanzas of the oil age: The Alaska North Slope and the North Sea. Twenty years later, they were running down. Meanwhile, the USA had fecklessly “offshored” its factories in the mistaken belief that we had entered a shimmering new digital economy of virtual business were nobody had to make real stuff. China became the world’s workshop and the USA became the world’s financial bucket-shop, churning out endless swindles and frauds. The predictable result was the financial crisis of 2008, which coincided with oil prices rising to over $140-a-barrel (and six months later they crashed, with the economy, to under $30-a-barrel).

The “recovery” from that was based on Wall Street’s premier swindle: the shale oil “miracle,” based on high-risk lending to companies that couldn’t make a red cent even while accomplishing the majestic stunt of exceeding America’s old 1970 oil production peak of around 10 million barrels-a-day (now at around 12 million). Notice, too, that the final push to 12-million barrels occurred during the last two years: thus, Mr. Trump’s miracle economy. All that, to paraphrase the immortal words of Mr. Dylan, balances like a mattress on a bottle of wine.

The China-US trade impasse, if it stands for even a few months, will crash the US economy again and it will also crash the price of shale oil back to levels that destroy oil companies. You understand, of course, that the rise of shale oil was amazingly swift, ten years, and that its fall will be similarly fast and furious. The feds may have to either bail it out or nationalize the whole shootin’ match — and that will end up as just another rat-hole we pound sand into, along with our long-running campaign to build failed states overseas. Translation: not so good for the value of the US dollar.

We’re moving into a summer of grave discontent. I don’t believe that China-US trade relationship can be repaired. The disturbances we have set in motion will surely unleash the wicked animus against the USA that has been building among other nations since before 9/11/01. Even the Europeans, our old pals, have soured on us. The war hawks are steering our ship-of-state into reefy waters. The dithering Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) has painted itself into a corner with years of interest rate suppression and market manipulations. Bad weather in the American breadbasket portends rising food prices for us, and less to export (or give away) to the really hungry corners of the world. Less food makes for belligerent nations.

There is already enough tension in the world as it faces not just the end of a global trade fiesta, but a world-wide synchronized economic depression. This is the one from which there will be no “recovery” but only adaptation to lower standards of living and new arrangements for getting by. In other words, the contraction will be permanent. Our fantasies about the super high-tech nirvana of endless leisure with sex robots will dissolve with it. The dark apprehension of all this has already produced a psychotic break in US politics. We now live in a land where Nabisco uses transsexuals to sell Chips Ahoy cookies.  Next to us, the old Weimar Republic looks like a Boy Scout camporee.

This economic meltdown will play into the worst insecurities of Mr. Trump, the Golden Golem of Greatness. His domestic political antagonists long ago declared all-out war on him. The perpetually rising stock market was all that tempered his behavior in the face of that obloquy. With the economy fizzling, he will fight back Golem-style, like a demon from the underworld. But for all of Mr. Trump’s Teutonic neuroticism, he holds an advantage in that battle: the documented facts appear to show that he was unfairly persecuted for two years by opponents who outsmarted themselves in actually breaking the law, and they are on the run before a gathering juggernaut of referrals for indictments. The craziness of their desperation is now on view for all to see in the antics of the House committees.

All this raises the question: can this country hold itself together? Mr. Trump would be a most unlikely figure to provide the necessary moral support. He’s no Franklin Roosevelt reassuring the immiserated masses with fireside chats over the radio, and he sure ain’t Fiorello LaGuardia, reading the Sunday funnies to people out of work and out of luck. But never forget that history is a trickster. Even the profoundly flawed sometimes strangely find themselves on the hero’s journey.

Kunstler



71 Comments on "Kunstler: The Trend is Not Your Friend"

  1. makati1 on Tue, 14th May 2019 5:40 pm 

    FYI: “in spades In large quantity or to an extreme degree.” – The Free Dictionary

  2. makati1 on Tue, 14th May 2019 5:45 pm 

    Few here have any idea who FDR and LaGuardia are. Especially if they are dumbed down Americans under the age of 40. Most young Americans have a 3rd world education these days. And, it is getting worse.

    The American education system was number One until about 40 years ago. Now it is 17th in the world and sliding…

  3. Davy on Tue, 14th May 2019 5:54 pm 

    “This is so hilarious. Empire dave is perfectly willing to apply revisionism to WW1 and agrees wholeheartedly with Roberts assessment, because that puts the blame on Britain and its side-kicks France and Russia. But all of a sudden, Empire dave is NOT interested is discussing the more recent WW2 and tells me that I should “get over it”.”
    Where did I “wholeheartedly” agree? And where is the revisionism? I said I agree and that agree is very light and in general. I sometimes agree with Roberts but usually he is just another extremist with a hard on. Also, cloggo, WW1 does not apply to WW2. You can’t jump to conclusions about WW2 from my opinion on WW1.

    “he realizes full well that that could lead to finger pointing towards HIS club?”
    What club is that cloggo? I am not a club member type for anything.

    “Asking the question is answering it. Empire dave implicitly admits that his club is far more implicated that he would care to admit.”
    Well now you are just a liar saying shit like is typical of the cloggo.

    “Intellectual honesty is not exactly empire dave’s cup of tea.”
    You’re the extremist with the one sided chauvinistic agenda. Tell me who is intellectually honest and who is not? LOL. Extremist like you weave facts together in lies plus are intellectual when it suits your agenda and when it does not you make shit up.

  4. Davy on Tue, 14th May 2019 5:58 pm 

    “The “Kunster” once again displays his homophobia and prejudice. He’s been writing for years now proclaiming the end of modern civilization for years now and can hardly be trusted.”

    BS, kristen, where is there any Homophobia and prejudice. The blind lying liberals have been outed by Kunstler and he is a card carrying Democrat and not a Trump supporter. He is honest and that is what extremist lying liberals hate. Also the subject matter is very relevant to the collapse process.

  5. Davy on Tue, 14th May 2019 6:02 pm 

    “MOB you sound so very much like Chihuahua Davy. Busy proving that you are an ignorant asshole using the same writing style. He avoids a real debate because he knows he has no ammunition to back his deluded ideas about the US and world. He resorts to immature putdowns and/or changes the subject, as you do.”
    More childish makato shit from an old man who is 76 years old. You would think the dumbshit would grow up sometime in his life. I think he has taken to the bottle myself. He is never at his fantasy farm these days just ranting hate and resentment.

    “GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! TRUMP, THE DESTROYER OF AMERICA! VOTE FOR TRUMP!”
    Stupid shit from a brain dead old man

  6. Davy on Tue, 14th May 2019 6:04 pm 

    ‘Most young Americans have a 3rd world education these days. And, it is getting worse.”

    Well makato, you are a college drop out after 1 semester. Now you are just a google brat. You rarely make a coherent comment beyond slip sliding or Go Trump in 2020. What a dumbass.

  7. makati1 on Tue, 14th May 2019 6:36 pm 

    Davy, I have forgotten more than you ever learned. I “dropped out” because I was smart enough to see that it was a waste of time and money.

    I ended my career making as much as the “degreed” engineers and even had to teach them how to do their job. Learning does not all come from “for profit” organizations. It comes from living and learning every day. Over 27,000 learning days at this point. ^_^

    http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/education_futures/2015/08/10_reasons_the_us_education_system_is_failing.html
    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/education-in-america-serv_b_1533233
    https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/vouchers/howbad/crisis.html

    Today, a degree means lifelong indebtedness and a lower degree of happiness. I advise young people to get a trade. Learn while you earn. College degrees are wastepaper. They won’t even get you a job at McDonalds.

    BTW: “2018 World Best Education Systems – Final Rankings”

    #1 South Korea
    #4 Russia
    #20 China

    https://worldtop20.org/worldbesteducationsystem

    US Not even in the top 20. Dumbed down Amerikans are slip slidin’…

  8. Davy on Tue, 14th May 2019 7:14 pm 

    “Davy, I have forgotten more than you ever learned.”
    LOL, that’s a funny makato

    “ I “dropped out” because I was smart enough to see that it was a waste of time and money.”
    Bullshit, makato, an under graduate degree is essential to furthering ones intelligence. You dropped out because you are a narcissistic know-it-all that knows very little.

    “I ended my career making as much as the “degreed” engineers and even had to teach them how to do their job.”
    Sure you did makato

    “Learning does not all come from “for profit” organizations. It comes from living and learning every day. Over 27,000 learning days at this point. ^_^”
    Spare me the endless bullshit and the stupid face. Learning comes from schooling and experience and ideally both. You are just trying to explain away the fact all you have is a high school education.

    “Today, a degree means lifelong indebtedness and a lower degree of happiness. I advise young people to get a trade. Learn while you earn. College degrees are wastepaper. They won’t even get you a job at McDonalds.”
    Bullshit makato, some degrees are problematic but quit the stupid generalizations that is just more of you trying to explain away the fact you only have a high school education.

    “BTW: “2018 World Best Education Systems – Final Rankings”
    AH, then why are so many Asians studying over here makato?

    “US Not even in the top 20. Dumbed down Amerikans are slip slidin’…”
    Go back to the list stupid and put your glasses on or get another cup of coffee, the US is 14.

  9. Anonymouse on Tue, 14th May 2019 7:17 pm 

    Are you confused again cloggjudge? This is not a WW2, or history site you stupid kike. If you and DAVYMOB want to pull on each other dicks over WW2, why dont dont the both of you, or, ‘three’ actually, go find someplace where they actually discuss that topic.

    They exist you know, or, are have been banned at most of the major WW2 history forums already? Besides DAVYMOB, no one else really finds the subject remotely on topic, and the only reason he keeps taking the bait is because he is a moron who is….somewhat infatuated with you and he just cant help himself.

  10. Anonymouse on Tue, 14th May 2019 7:18 pm 

    I wish JuanP was here tonight. I love him so.

  11. al-wala-wal-bara-AKA-fmr-paultard on Tue, 14th May 2019 7:18 pm 

    makako the college drop out. I’m a frm paultard and i completed with a liberal arts deg. majoring in physics. u r undeducted u.
    peas

  12. al-wala-wal-bara-AKA-fmr-paultard on Tue, 14th May 2019 7:21 pm 

    anontard, u are anti nazi too? wow i guess i apologize for attacking u cuz u attack supertard
    peas

  13. makati1 on Tue, 14th May 2019 7:32 pm 

    Al- yep! You prove my point. Your language is low quality, and you brag that you have a piece of paper that says you are intelligent. No proof that that is true. Your comments here are proof of just the opposite. Did you even graduate from high school? No proof here that you did.

    Lib Arts with a physics major? Is that a joke? You and the MOBSTER with his ‘doctorate’ in something meaningless, need to get together for a few and lie to each other. No one here believes it.

    BTW: “Lib Arts” is about worthless today. An excuse to party for four or five years and then waste the rest of your life walking dogs and stressing out over your student loan. After the crash, degrees will be even more worthless. Better to be a plumber or electrician. lol

  14. al-wala-wal-bara-AKA-fmr-paultard on Tue, 14th May 2019 10:28 pm 

    Give it break, retard. How many times must you tell us how you made it through college with a make believe degree in physics. You just barely graduated because you were too busy being a stud with the girls and smoking a lot of dope.

    IOW, you want us to believe you are an SAVANT. Only problem is you need to preface savant with IDIOT.

    Me says you better off when you smokin’ the cocoa puffs.

  15. Davy on Wed, 15th May 2019 4:48 am 

    LOL, makato gets attack by his buddy Juapee. Those are not Paultard’s words. This sock comes right before Nostradamus another juanpee sock

    al-wala-wal-bara-AKA-fmr-paultard on Tue, 14th May 2019 10:28 pm
    “Give it break, retard. How many times must you tell us how you made it through college with a make believe degree in physics. You just barely graduated because you were too busy being a stud with the girls and smoking a lot of dope.”

  16. Davy on Wed, 15th May 2019 6:36 am 

    I should know cause the real paultard (my idle) is one of my socks.

  17. JuanP on Wed, 15th May 2019 6:56 am 

    I should know cause the real paultard (my idle) is one of my socks.

  18. Cloggie on Wed, 15th May 2019 10:52 am 

    Good geopolitical news for Europe and Russia from China:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7031507/China-threatens-Peoples-War-blames-trade-war-Trumps-greed-arrogance.html

    “China threatens a ‘PEOPLE’S WAR’ on US and blames the trade war on Trump’s ‘greed and arrogance’ as tensions escalate between Beijing and Washington”

    China means a REAL war here.

    Advice to Europeans and Russians: eat cheese, sip wine, build wind turbines, lie low, say nothing other than piously calling for restraint and dialog, as the outgoing #1 locks horns with the coming #1 (according to the BBC and I agree).

    Remember rule #1 from the geopolitical playbook: if you want to win a world war, enter it last.

  19. Davy on Wed, 15th May 2019 11:07 am 

    “China means a REAL war here.”

    AH, sure thang cloggo. Anyone with a brain knows China is big on propaganda to its masses to prepare them for hard times coming. You don’t look to these publications for accuracy with military matters but the cloggo does. Anything to make that anti-American narrative stronger is fine with the cloggo. Lies, stories, embellishments, history revisions, and cheerleading chauvinism is the cloggo Modus.

  20. Cloggie on Wed, 15th May 2019 2:21 pm 

    Vassal no more:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15/angela-merkel-interview-europe-eu-unite-challenge-us-russia-china

    “Merkel: Europe must unite to stand up to China, Russia and US

  21. Cloggie on Thu, 16th May 2019 1:51 am 

    Breakfast with the DailyMail…

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7031359/We-vote-against-MPs-dismiss-Mays-plan-faces-showdown-Tories-TOMORROW.html

    “May’s Brexit deal really is DEAD if MPs vote it down again in June, admits minister – as the DUP, Tory Brexiteers and Labour are ALL set to do in crushing blow to PM’s final hopes”

    My money is on an EU-induced hard-Brexit, followed by a Corbyn-government and EU-UK working out a soft-Brexit after all, but first some 30 mile lorry traffic jam on the A2 and A20.

    May going nowhere:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-7034741/HENRY-DEEDES-PMQs-gone-unmissable-unwatchable.html

    “Exciting? May and Corbyn have all the oratory talent of two tongue-tied koalas: HENRY DEEDES…on how PMQs has gone from unmissable to unwatchable”

    Shortly before a stand-off in the Gulf, Pompous visits Putin in Russia:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7033433/Putin-warns-Washington-Moscow-wont-act-fireman-Iranian-dispute.html

    “Russia is not a fire brigade’: Putin warns he cannot ‘rescue everything’ in wake of global nuclear deal with Iran falling apart as tension escalates between arch-rivals Tehran and Washington”

    New testing ground for sophisticated Russian and Chinese weaponry is fast emerging.

    Death to libtard society. A woman of 22 should be sitting in the sun in her garden with her two babies, rather than ruining her womb behind a computer:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7032479/UK-gives-birth-babies-dangerously-low-birthweights-Turkmenistan-Albania-Cuba.html

    “More babies in the UK are being born underweight than in Turkmenistan, Albania and Cuba ‘because of the spiralling numbers of older mothers'”

    Woman are not men and should not become men.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7034701/Locals-fight-row-future-Thomas-Hardy-country.html

    “No thanks, sunshine! Deep in the heart of Thomas Hardy country, this beauty spot is the latest that is set to be carpeted in solar panels earning thousands for the landowner – but this time, the locals are fighting back”

    “Not in my backyard” is now the greatest threat against further developing a renewable energy base in densely populated countries like Britain, Germany and Holland. Not money, or lack of political of public support in general and not even storage.

    Way out: offshore wind, panels on roofs only, huge solar arrays in Africa and the Middle East and Australia and perhaps Solaroad in Holland.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7034359/Labours-anti-Semitism-crisis-deepens-dossier-leaked-messages-reveals-huge-failure-act.html

    “Labour’s anti-Semitism crisis deepens as dossier of leaked messages reveals ‘huge failure to act’ among party leadership”

    It’s real! The war against the oligarchs and “money men”. Corbyn is certainly no white nationalist, but it is unlikely he will repeat the stunt of libtard Tony Blair and squander further British cities to Islam, like Blair did to London.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7033743/Architects-suggest-ROOFTOP-POOL-rebuilt-Notre-Dame-Paris.html

    “Architects suggest ROOFTOP POOL for rebuilt Notre Dame in Paris after 850-year-old cathedral was gutted by fire”

    The left never wastes a good crisis to further its agenda of wiping out (white) history and heritage. It is the same instinct that brings down statues of generals of the Confederacy. The left, the secularized consequence of the Christian religion in its last stages. Either Christianity-Marxism survives or white man survives. We need a new religion, something virile, something Roman.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-7032089/Mick-Jagger-75-shows-INCREDIBLE-dance-skills-just-weeks-heart-surgery.html

    “Jumpin’ Jack’s back! Mick Jagger, 75, shows off his incredible dance skills – just WEEKS after undergoing heart surgery”

    For personal inspiration, this guy is again well! Respect!

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