Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on April 10, 2020

Bookmark and Share

Kunstler: Risings and Fallings

Public Policy

In the corkscrewing anguish of the social sequester, with careers, savings, futures, and dreams whirling down the drain, voices rise above the din of conflicting statistics to ask: what is going on here? To some, it looks like a deliberate attempt to demolish what’s left of the economy for political advantage. Clouds of suspicion gather over the two medical superstars of the Daily Briefing show, Doctors Fauci and Birx, as they somewhat sheepishly revise their numbers for contagion and death downward and attempt to “balance” the formula of modeled projections versus mitigation efforts. Was the stay-at-home panic necessary, after all? Will it save the day or kill off modern life as we knew it?

Well, everyplace else in the world was shutting down, weren’t they? Did they all go off their rockers, too? At least a hundred doctors died in Italy heroically tending the stricken, so they say. South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore opted for flat-out medical Gestapo action. Britain, Spain, France, and Germany about the same, but minus testing at the grand scale and tracing of contacts. Honestly, how is it possible the whole planet punked itself?

I certainly don’t know the answer to all this, though readers are twanging on me to declare the whole Covid-19 story “a hoax,” which I’m not ready to do. I do know this: America has become utterly intolerant of uncertainty. And in the absence of certainty, that age-old human cognitive skill called pattern recognition, which has made us such a successful species, kicks into high gear scanning the field-of-view for answers. Any string-of-dots that affords even the slimmest plausibility goes on the table for review, including a lot of stories tagged as “conspiracy theories.”

I know this, too: the financial side of the gasping global economy was running off the rails well before Covid-19 flew out of its bat-cave into somebody’s soup bowl… or out of China’s Wuhan virus lab, if that’s how you like it… or before it seeped out of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s ark of world-saving secrets. In the USA and Europe, finance had come to mostly eclipse every other human endeavor of wealth production ­– with the catch that finance actually didn’t produce any real wealth, it only winkled and swindled wealth (or the mere ghosts of wealth) with its asset-stripping magic, from the places where wealth once did truly dwell. Or else it ginned up abstruse rackets that attempted to replace the utility of money with sheer math. Or, when all else failed, it just resorted to plain old accounting fraud… until, finally, there was so much there not actually there, that the whole holographic fantasy flickered out.

The pre-Easter bear market rally on Wall Street has been a wonder, don’t you think? As the numbers of able-bodied people out-of-work rocketed up past ten million during the same period, the stock indexes shot up three, five, six percent a day? Say, what? You’re telling me that’s based on the prospect of magnificent earnings in the third quarter? With every business on God’s green earth writhing in the dust like squashed bugs? And every supply line for basic goods and the gazillion spare parts for everything… all choked off?

And meanwhile, the American public sequesters and festers, waiting for those $1,200 checks that will fix… everything! Let’s face it: this is a twilight zone between stupor and fury. Nobody is paying anything to anyone. All obligations are suspended: salaries, rents, mortgages, bills, loans, bets, and vigs, all up in the air somewhere, but definitely not moving to their assigned destinations. The velocity of money is zero and all the various new term facilities and structured vehicles conjured by the Federal Reserve and Congress amount to a mere shadow of money moving ­– even though they are represented by trillions of brand-new alleged dollars. For every ten points that the Standard & Poor’s rose this week, somewhere down the line as many hedge funders will be dribbled like so many basketballs to the hoop of judgment.

The nation now has the long Easter weekend to stew and ruminate over its fate with spring achingly vivid and beckoning beyond the grim, streaked windows of sequestering. Those little cans of Easter Spam with pineapple rings won’t offer much consolation, combined with the abject discovery that even Netflix only has so many sequels to Frozen for children going catatonic with ennui. Kids are generally not so excited by stock and bond markets, but that’s probably where the genuine melodrama picks up on Monday. The weeks ahead there will give the phrase down-to-earth a whole new meaning.

kunstler



154 Comments on "Kunstler: Risings and Fallings"

  1. Davy on Thu, 16th Apr 2020 6:03 am 

    Not good for the makato-one AsiaUp meme. India was already stalling before the virus.

    “Barclays cuts India’s 2020 GDP growth to zero”
    https://tinyurl.com/y8qnw2nb asia times

    “Projects economic losses of US$234.4 billion due to lockdown extension”

  2. Davy on Thu, 16th Apr 2020 6:19 am 

    “Air pollution has dropped by 30% in the Northeast, NASA says. Are coronavirus stay-at-home orders responsible?”
    https://tinyurl.com/yd64x8uw usa today

    “Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is primarily emitted from burning fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation, can be used as an indicator of changes in human activity, according to NASA. With people staying home and not driving their cars, air pollution has declined in a big way.”

  3. Davy on Thu, 16th Apr 2020 6:23 am 

    If true, bye bye growth in many industries and sectors and hello recession.

    “Social distancing needed until 2022 against COVID-19 spread, analysis says”
    https://tinyurl.com/y9n87aoc upi

    “Even with some type of restrictions implemented regularly over the next few years, new outbreaks of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, called SARS-CoV-2, could be seen until 2025 or beyond, researchers suggest in the study, published in the journal Science. “We found that one-time social distancing measures are likely to be insufficient to maintain the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 within the limits of critical care capacity in the United States,” study co-author Dr. Stephen Kissler, a research fellow in the Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said in a conference call with reporters on Tuesday. “So, what seems could be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments, are intermittent social distancing periods to maintain the critical care the number of critical cases due to SARS-CoV-2 with the capacity able to be treated by hospital limitations within the United States,” he added.”

  4. Davy on Thu, 16th Apr 2020 6:29 am 

    “China’s initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan spread twice as fast as we thought, new study suggests”
    https://tinyurl.com/yd2dagy6 scmp

    “Each carrier was infecting 5.7 people on average, according to US researchers, who say previous estimate had used incomplete data. Latest data based on cases whose origin could be traced more clearly, in provinces that had test kits and ample health care capacity.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *